Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, April 29th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/29
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- Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-180) - 5.5U
- Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins (-335) - 5.5U
- Philadelphia Flyers (-130) vs. New Jersey Devils - 6U
- New York Islanders (-103) vs. New York Rangers (-118) - 5.5U
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) vs. Washington Capitals (-110) - 5.5O
- Detroit Red Wings vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-335) - 5.5U
- Vancouver Canucks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-278) - 6.5U
- St. Louis Blues vs. Minnesota Wild (-143) - 5.5U
- Florida Panthers (-148) vs Chicago Blackhawks - 6U
- Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers (-148) - 6.5U
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Dallas | 5 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 17.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 22 | 28 | 8 | 14.75 |
| Buffalo | 28 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 12.5 |
| Boston | 4 | 27 | 18 | 3 | 15.5 |
| Philadelphia | 31 | 20 | 16 | 11 | 17.5 |
| New Jersey | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 16.5 |
| New York Islanders | 2 | 25 | 12 | 25 | 18 |
| New York Rangers | 7 | 19 | 26 | 19 | 15.75 |
| Pittsburgh | 13 | 18 | 27 | 11 | 21.5 |
| Washington | 18 | 21 | 30 | 25 | 19.25 |
| Detroit | 20 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 13.5 |
| Carolina | 3 | 23 | 23 | 5 | 14.25 |
| Vancouver | 22 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 |
| Toronto | 11 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 15.5 |
| St. Louis | 20 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 21.5 |
| Minnesota | 9 | 8 | 21 | 28 | 12.75 |
| Florida | 12 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 14.75 |
| Chicago | 24 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 12.75 |
| Calgary | 17 | 26 | 5 | 20 | 21.75 |
| Edmonton | 10 | 15 | 21 | 23 | 12.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Dallas | 6 | 9 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 19 |
| Buffalo | 13 | 2 |
| Boston | 15 | 22 |
| Philadelphia | 19 | 31 |
| New Jersey | 29 | 30 |
| New York Islanders | 24 | 5 |
| New York Rangers | 12 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 7 |
| Washington | 3 | 23 |
| Detroit | 30 | 3 |
| Carolina | 1 | 24 |
| Vancouver | 19 | 26 |
| Toronto | 11 | 19 |
| St. Louis | 10 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 22 | 28 |
| Florida | 13 | 27 |
| Chicago | 9 | 18 |
| Calgary | 16 | 17 |
| Edmonton | 2 | 11 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,300 FD) - We have a big slate and lots of good centers to pay up for but McDavid continues to stand out amongst the crowd. He has scored seven goals and eight assists in eight games against the Flames and has single-handedly dominated the battle for Alberta. McDavid is playing on another level right now as he has scored 12 points over his last four games played and is coming off of a 50 point DK performance where he recorded three goals and an assist.
- Sam Bennett, FLA ($4,100 DK/ $4,000 FD) - Not much has changed over the past couple of days as Bennett continues to be underpriced and overlooked despite his recent form. He has scored seven points over his last five games and has taken 19 shots on goal during that stretch which makes him viable in all formats.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Matthews, Draisaitl, Barkov, Crosby, Trocheck, Aho
- Mid-Tier- Barzal, Backlund, Benn
- Value- Carter, Staal, Monahan, Strome, Wennberg
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mitchell Marner, TOR ($8,100 DK / $7,700 FD) - If opting to not roster Matthews in cash games, you can look to roster his linemate, Mitch Marner, who has good upside in his matchup against the Canucks. Marner has one goal and seven assists in seven games against Vancouver and has accrued 30 peripheral stats in those seven games played.
- Teuvo Teravainen, CAR ($4,000 DK / $5,300 FD) - Teravainen is finally back in the lineup for the Canes and at his price point of just 4k, he is too good to pass up. He has been inserted into the top line and will be skating alongside Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov which makes the top Canes line one of the best-priced lines on the slate. Teuvo has two assists in three games against Detroit this season and has 10 shots on goal so at his low price point, he has solid upside.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Pastrnak, Kane, Kaprizov, Guentzel
- Mid-Tier- Huberdeau, Svechnikov, Tkachuk, McCann, Schenn, Puljujarvi, Vatrano
- Value- Duclair, Pearson, Foligno, Hoglander, Gusev, Coleman
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,900 DK / $6,600 FD) - If paying up for a defender, you want to make sure you grab one that can rack up peripheral stats which helps with having a solid floor and a player like that is Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton has recorded 23 peripheral stats over his last five games and has 34 peripherals in seven games against Detroit.
- Ryan Pulock, NYI ($3,900 DK / $4,400 FD) - Pulock is having a down year from a point-producing standpoint but he continues to see a massive amount of ice time and is accruing over three peripheral stats per game over his last five games. Pulock only has one assist in six games against the Rangers but has recorded 14 blocked shots in those six games as well.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Fox, Nurse, Provorov, Barrie
- Mid-Tier- Letang, Hughes, Grzelcyk, Muzzin, Rielly, Sergachev
- Value- Edler, Krug, Myers, Keith, Pesce, Kalynuk
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Tuukka Rask, BOS ($8,500 DK / $7,800 FD) - The Bruins are one of the largest favorites on the slate and Rask enters this game as a winner of four of his last five games played. Targeting against the Sabres seems to be a very solid strategy when it comes to selecting your cash game goalie and with Boston being on home ice, it only favors Rask and the Bruins more on this slate.
- James Reimer, CAR ($8,400 DK / $8,500 FD) - Mrazek is listed as day-to-day so there is a chance that we see James Reimer draw the start on Thursday night for the Canes. Reimer has been a little shaky over his last five starts as he has gone 2-1-2 but has kept his goals allowed average under three goals per game during that five-game span. Despite his 0-2 record against Detroit, Reimer and the Canes look to be large favorites on home ice and they should still be trusted in this matchup.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Campbell, Smith
- Mid-Tier- Jarry
- Value- Binnington
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- CAR 1
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, d-men add on)
- The Canes are finally healthy and have united Svechnikov, Aho, and Teravainen on their top line. These three have only skated together for about 30 minutes this season and they have produced one goal and created 15 scoring chances and four high danger opportunities. When looking at last season's numbers, this line skated together for over 285 minutes and generated a 2.92 expected goals for rate, 33.25 scoring chances, and 13 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time.
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, d-men add on)
- PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
- Anytime we get a Pens/ Caps matchup, we can expect some fireworks to happen and some goals to be scored. Ovechkin could be out yet again which would really put a strain on this Washington team. The top line for the Pens is sporting a 2.51 expected goals for rate per 60 and is generating 29.92 scoring chances for and 11.95 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. In 31 minutes of ice time against Washington, this line for the Penguins has produced two goals and has generated 15 scoring chances and four high danger opportunities
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: EDM 1, TOR 1, FLA 1, BOS, FLA 2, MIN 3, CHI 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
