Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, April 22nd, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/22
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- Toronto Maple Leafs (-135) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6U
- Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Rangers (-150) - 6O
- Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders (-120) - 5.5O
- Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-285) - 5.5O
- Boston Bruins (-320) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-115) vs. Florida Panthers (-105) - 5.5O
- New Jersey Devils vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-285) - 6U
- Dallas Stars (-185) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
- St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche (-139) - 5.5O
- Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks (-145) - 6O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Toronto | 11 | 23 | 25 | 6 | 17.75 |
| Winnipeg | 9 | 10 | 23 | 14 | 12.5 |
| Philadelphia | 30 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 24.5 |
| New York Rangers | 11 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 14.75 |
| Washington | 19 | 19 | 30 | 26 | 17.5 |
| New York Islanders | 2 | 26 | 14 | 18 | 21 |
| Columbus | 26 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 16.25 |
| Tampa Bay | 8 | 22 | 27 | 9 | 15.25 |
| Boston | 6 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 16 |
| Buffalo | 26 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 11.75 |
| Carolina | 5 | 23 | 22 | 4 | 13.5 |
| Florida | 10 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 12.5 |
| New Jersey | 29 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 19.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 16 | 18 | 29 | 10 | 14 |
| Dallas | 3 | 30 | 13 | 25 | 16 |
| Detroit | 23 | 8 | 2 | 29 | 17.25 |
| St. Louis | 20 | 17 | 18 | 12 | 17.25 |
| Colorado | 3 | 31 | 31 | 1 | 16 |
| Ottawa | 31 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 15.75 |
| Vancouver | 21 | 1 | 10 | 18 | 10.25 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Toronto | 10 | 12 |
| Winnipeg | 4 | 29 |
| Philadelphia | 20 | 4 |
| New York Rangers | 14 | 30 |
| Washington | 1 | 10 |
| New York Islanders | 25 | 7 |
| Columbus | 28 | 8 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 16 |
| Boston | 11 | 19 |
| Buffalo | 15 | 1 |
| Carolina | 2 | 14 |
| Florida | 11 | 5 |
| New Jersey | 29 | 25 |
| Pittsburgh | 9 | 31 |
| Dallas | 6 | 24 |
| Detroit | 30 | 18 |
| St. Louis | 17 | 9 |
| Colorado | 7 | 27 |
| Ottawa | 26 | 21 |
| Vancouver | 17 | 23 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nahan MacKinnon, COL ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD) - MacKinnon continues to torment the Blues so rostering him in this matchup would be a great move for both cash games and tournaments. He has recorded four goals and three assists in just five games against the Blues and has taken 27 shots on goal in that five-game span.
- Jeff Carter, PIT ($4,800 DK/ $4,300 FD) - Carter has now recorded a point in back-to-back games and recorded his first goal as a Pittsburgh Penguin against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. He is averaging over four peripheral stats per game which is ideal if we are looking for a value center for your cash game lineups.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- Matthews, Crosby, Bergeron, Barkov, Trocheck
- Mid-Tier- Strome, Point, Norris, Benn
- Value- Hughes, Staal, Nelson, Dubois, Wennberg
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mitch Marner, TOR ($8,200 DK / $7,600 FD) - Marner is a very steady winger when it comes to fantasy hockey and if you decide to fade Matthews, you might want to roster Marner to get some exposure to Matthews. Marner has taken five shots in three of his last five games played and has good numbers against Winnipeg as he has netted three goals and accrued six assists in seven games played.
- Oliver Bjorkstrand, CBJ ($4,700 DK / $6,100 FD) - Bjorkstrnd has now recorded a point in three straight games and continues to be overlooked when it comes to his pricing on DK. Bjorkstrand leads the team with 35 points and 15 goals and as long as he continues to be priced under 5k on DK, he is in play in all formats.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Pastrnak, Marchand, Guentzel, Tkachuk, Pavelski, Rust, Boeser, Barzal, Tarasenko
- Mid-Tier- Huberdeau, McCann, Robertson, Hall, Mantha, Eberle, Necas, Niederrieter, Brown
- Value- Batherson, Wheeler, Laine, Hoffman, Hoglander, Pearson, Schwartz, Stastny
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Adam Fox, NYR ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD) - One defenseman that has really racked up the assist points has been Adam Fox. He leads all defensemen with 36 assists and has recorded eight assists in five games against the Flyers this season. In addition to those eight assists, he has recorded 24 peripheral stats in those five games which means he is averaging close to five peripheral stats per game against the Flyers which gives him a very good floor.
- Neal Pionk, WPG ($4,100 DK / $4,500 FD) - Pionk continues to see a strong amount of minutes of ice time per game and while he doesn't have a high goal total, he has 26 assists which is ranked second on the entire team. Pionk has a very solid floor as he is averaging over three peripheral stats per game and has racked up 25 peripheral stats in seven games against Toronto.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Hamilton, Hedman, Letang, Makar, Klingberg
- Mid-Tier- Hughes, Sergchev, Rielly, Grzelcyk, Pulock, Toews, Lindell
- Value- Parayko, Morrissey, Schmidt, Reilly, Cernak, Pesce, Montour, Oleksiak
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Jeremy Swayman, BOS ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD) - Swayman is slated to get the start for Boston on Thursday night against the Sabres. Swayman has done very well in his limited opportunities as he is 4-1 with a 1.78 goals allowed average and a .938 save percentage. He does have one win over Buffalo this year as he stopped 21 of 23 total shots faced and with Boston being the largest favorite on the slate, he definitely looks to be cash game viable.
- Alex Nedeljkovic, CAR ($7,500 DK / $8,400 FD) - The pricing on Nedeljkovic is too good to not consider over on DK. He is on a three-game winning streak and has allowed only two total goals over that three-game span. Nedeljkovic is 2-0-1 against Florida this season and has stopped 101 out o 107 total shots faced. While it is risky to target against the Panthers in cash games, the shot volume should be there to help offset a few goals being scored.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Jarry, Shesterkin
- Mid-Tier- Dubnyk, Varlamov
- Value- Murray
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- BOS 1
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
- Boston is a huge road favorite and with their top line always being priced up, it tends to drive ownership down a bit on them which is ideal from a tournament standpoint. The top line has fared well against the Sabres this year as they have generated a 3.26 expected goals for rate in just 33 minutes of ice time while also creating 18 scoring chances for and eight high danger opportunities. While the Sabres will control the line matching, they don't have a line that can truly compete and shut down the Bergeron line. Also, don't forget to play Taylor Hall if you're into the revenge narrative!
- Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
- PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
- If the top Boston line is too expensive for your roster, you might want to consider pivoting on down to the penguins top line which is a bit cheaper on both sites. The Penguins will be on home ice and will have the line matching advantage in their favor which only benefits the Crosby line even more. In 88 minutes of ice time against the Devils, the Crosby line has generated six goals while also generating 46 scoring chances and 17 high danger opportunities. The Devils have allowed 30 goals over their last 10 games played while the Penguins have scored 29 goals over their last 10 games played (second highest goal scoring total in that 10-game span). New Jersey is dead last when it comes to the penalty kill and the Penguins are a top-10 power play team so rostering their top line and Letang could be one way to go in tournaments.
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: TOR 1, TBL 1, NYI 1, DAL 1, CAR 2, NYR 2, VAN 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
