Week 5 saw Ja'Marr Chase "nuke" the main slate with three receiving touchdowns and there I was with too much gosh darn Joe Mixon, who never seems to be able to convert any goal-line carries into touchdowns himself. Justin Jefferson was a bust (and is now hurt), while De'Von Achane (also hurt) and Tyreek Hill proved unstoppable once again. I got defensive touchdowns from both of my favorite defenses (Saints and Jets) and had enough good calls to make up for some bad ones - leading to a "break-even" type of week, which I will take over a losing week any day.
This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 15. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!
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Week 6 Vegas Totals and Team Data
Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. The Packers and Steelers are both on byes, with the Ravens/Titans clashing overseas in the London Game. You won't find the Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Giants, or Bills on the main slate either as they play in the primetime games this week.
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 6: Main Slate Only
- Dolphins - 31
- Rams - 27.75
- Jags - 24.75
- Bengals - 24.25
- Eagles - 23.75
- Vikings + Lions - 23.25
2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Five Games: Points Per Game
- Dolphins - 36.2
- Niners - 33.4
- Lions - 29.6
- Eagles - 28.2
- Seahawks - 27.8
2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Five Games: Points Allowed Per Game
- Niners - 13.6
- Browns- 15.0
- Saints - 15.2
- Bucs - 17.0
- Falcons - 19.2
High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Five Games
- Dolphins - 513.6
- Eagles - 404.4
- Niners - 402.6
- Lions - 384.4
- Rams - 364.0
- Vikings - 362.4
TYREEK HILL 69-YARD TOUCHDOWN 💨
pic.twitter.com/kfYYKKWZB1— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 8, 2023
Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through Five Games
- Bears - 384.2
- Colts - 382
- Cardinals - 375.6
- Commanders - 372.2
- Seahawks - 367.5
Week 6 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. With five weeks of games now under our belt, let's look just at 2023 data here and I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.
Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Dolphins (2) vs. Panthers (11)
- Eagles (9) @ Jets (16)
- Seahawks (7) @ Bengals (12)
- Cardinals (10) @ Rams (22)
- Rams (12) vs. Cardinals (30)
Josh Dobbs threw two TDs last week but also turned the ball over three times. Both sides of that game pop for passing offense, however, and you'll probably notice that not a single "smash spot" really stands out this week.
Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)
(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)
- Dolphins (1) vs. Panthers (32)
- Eagles (2) @ Jets (15)
- Lions (5) @ Bucs (21)
- Seahawks (9) @ Bengals (30)
- Cardinals (6) @ Rams (25)
I had to bold that Miami-Carolina matchup as we don't get a 1 vs. 32 matchup just any week. With De'Von Achane on the shelf, it should be a big week for Raheem Mostert with some Jeff Wilson mixed in there as well.
Back to back runs by Raheem Mostert to ice the game. He’s got some serious power. pic.twitter.com/4jAWnznvNU
— Finscentral (@finscentral) October 10, 2023
2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Bears (Cousins), Cardinals (Stafford), Commanders (Ridder), Jags (Minshew), Eagles (Z. Wilson)
RB - Panthers (Mostert), Bears (Mattison), Cardinals (Williams), Texans (Kamara), Jets (Swift)
WR - Seahawks (Chase), Commanders (London), Vikings (Moore), Eagles (G. Wilson), Cardinals (Kupp)
TE - Jets (Goedert), Falcons (Thomas), Lions (Otton), Bengals (Fant), Rams (Ertz)
DEF - Patriots (LV), Browns (SF), Commanders (ATL), Bears (MIN), Falcons (WAS)
JAMARR CHASE LOOOONG TD! pic.twitter.com/DFzAR0vUwI
— JM Football (@JomboyMediaFB) October 8, 2023
Week 6 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis
Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it.
Let's roll with DraftKings pricing this week, here are some combos that I am eyeing.
- Ridder - London (9.8k)
- Dobbs - Brown (10.5k)
- Minshew - Pittman Jr. (11.3k)
- Garoppolo - Meyers (11.1k)
- Stroud - Collins (11.6k)
Injury Situations to Monitor This Week
QB: A-Rich is OUT for the Colts, it will be Gardner Minshew under center. Deshaun Watson is day-to-day but trending towards playing in a huge game for the Browns against the Niners.
RB: Achane is listed as doubtful, but he's definitely not playing this week. Jahmyr Gibbs is still questionable for the Lions. Meanwhile, James Conner is out for Arizona and Keontay Ingram has missed two straight games, which could leave Emari Demercado as the feature back for the Cardinals this week. Khalil Herbert is also listed as doubtful for the Bears, while his backup Roschon Johnson is also dealing with recovering from a concussion.
WR: Justin Jefferson is OUT, leaving Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn as the top two receiving options this week for Kirk Cousins. Amon-Ra St. Brown missed last week's game but is trending in the right direction so far this week. Mike Evans is nursing a hamstring injury, but it could be minor - just keep an eye on his status. Tee Higgins sat out for the Bengals last week but could return this week in a good matchup against the Seahawks. Tank Dell is still in the concussion protocol with no updates yet this week.
TE: Juwan Johnson missed last week's game and has been a pretty big disappointment this year for fantasy owners. Other than that, most of our pass-catching big men are off the injury report so far this week (for now!)
Week 6 Interesting Stats
- Only one running back has handled every single carry of his teams inside the 20-yard line - and that is Joe Mixon! He has 16 attempts in the red zone and just one touchdown to show for it. Ten of those attempts have come inside the 10-yard line and he has not scored on any of them!
- Kirk Cousins has as many red zone passing attempts (31) as Patrick Mahomes. He won't have Justin Jefferson this week, but the Vikings like to throw down inside the red zone.
- De'Von Achane (9.1) and Raheem Mostert (4.5) are among the league leaders in yards before contact per attempt. This Miami run scheme is being executed so well that their backs literally aren't being touched going through the line quite often.
- Brandon Aiyuk leads the NFL in percentage of his team's air yards with 48.5% - that's higher than both A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill who we think of as some of the best deep threats in the game. Aiyuk has big play potential every week.
- The Niners have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL this season. They carved up the Dallas defense last week, a respected unit, but face another tough test this week as the Browns rank #1 in overall DVOA defense (1st against the pass, 3rd against the run). The Browns rank second in pressure rate (38%) and fifth in sack conversion rate (22%),
Alright, that's it for my Week 6 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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