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The two teams at the top of the AFC South meet up in the Thursday night game, a primetime matchup that brings opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are both 6-4, one game ahead of the Tennessee Titans, in the AFC South playoff race. In Week 7, the Colts won 30-23 at home against the Texans.
The Colts are also looking at changes in the backfield because star runner Marlon Mack is out with a broken hand. Jonathan Williams performed well in the aftermath of Mack’s injury last week. The passing game could get a jolt with the return of number one receiver T.Y. Hilton.
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Here are some angles to consider when making prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight for the Thursday night NFL game.
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INDIANAPOLIS-HOUSTON
OVER/UNDERS
Deshaun Watson UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – The past two games haven’t been ideal for Watson, who has thrown for 370 yards, total, at Jacksonville and Baltimore. In 10 games this season, Watson has thrown for at least 271 yards five times and is averaging 260.5 passing yards per game. Going against an Indianapolis team that is above average in terms of pass defense (7.0 yards per attempt, 228.8 passing yards per game) does tilt this towards the under.
Jacoby Brissett OVER 235.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though Brissett has passed for at least 236 yards just three times this season, he is going up against a Texans team that is below average in terms of pass defense, allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 273.1 passing yards per game; the latter of which ranks 29th.
Carlos Hyde UNDER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS – Not only has Hyde rushed for at least 63 yards six times this season, he’s also run for 58 and 60 in two other games so this is definitely within range for him, but the Colts Defense is above average and when the teams hooked up in Week 7, Hyde was limited to 35 yards on a dozen carries.
T.Y. Hilton OVER 4.5 RECEPTIONS – He’s been out with a calf strain for the past three weeks but it appears that Hilton may be ready to go Thursday night in Houston. Although he’s had some ups and downs during the season, Hilton is catching a career-high 69.6% of his targets this season so if he gets targeted seven times that should push Hilton towards the over.
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 80.5 RECEIVING YARDS – This is a significant number to cover as Hopkins has gone over 80 yards four times in 10 games this season but he’s had double-digit targets in five straight games and it’s a little easier to see Hopkins putting up big yardage when he’s getting fed the ball so consistently.
RAPID FIRE
DeAndre Hopkins -19.5 receiving yards vs. T.Y. Hilton – Hopkins’ ceiling gives him the advantage because he does have three games with at least 100 receiving yards while Hilton has had a hard time staying on the field and hasn’t produced more than the 87 receiving yards that he put up in Week 1.
Kenny Stills +0.5 receptions vs. Nyheim Hines – The Colts’ backfield is in flux at the moment, with Marlon Mack injured, so maybe there will be more opportunity for Hines as a receiver, but he’s averaged three catches per game compared to Stills, who is averaging 3.3 receptions per game. Getting Stills as the underdog is the side to play here.
Kenny Stills -5.5 receiving yards vs. Zach Pascal – Neither of these guys is the marquee receiver, and maybe my position flips if T.Y. Hilton isn’t playing for the Colts but Pascal has stumbled in the past couple weeks, catching four passes for 43 yards, total. On average, Pascal is putting up 36.4 receiving yards per game and Still is sitting at 49.3 receiving yards per game. The defensive differences level this out but I’ll still ride with Stills who has more of a track record and could have a significant secondary role if Will Fuller is out of the lineup.
