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NFL DFS Prop Picks for 9/19/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


There is a decent chance that a Tennessee-Jacksonville game could turn into a vintage “three yards and a cloud of dust” affair. Neither team has a reliable passing game and both have running backs that can lead the way.

That’s a throwback notion, to base an offense around the running game, but Derrick Henry for Tennessee and Leonard Fournette for Jacksonville do offer that possibility for the Thursday night game.

Both teams have question marks at quarterback. Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota has been around a while, yet doubts persist about his performance. Jacksonville’s rookie, Gardner Minshew, is a fantastic story, but a rookie drafted in the sixth round and appearing in his third NFL game is hardly a reliable option.

Part of the challenge that both teams face is that their receiving corps don’t have that proven No. 1 option. The Titans don’t throw much, and their leading receiver, in terms of targets and receptions, is tight end Delanie Walker. Rookie A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are the wide receivers that see the most looks. For the Jaguars, Chris Conley, D.J. Chark, and Dede Westbrook are the top targets. That’s not making life easier for any quarterback, let alone those with big question marks.

Here are some angles to consider when playing Thursday night football props on Monkey Knife Fight.

 

TENNESSEE-JACKSONVILLE

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Gardner Minshew UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS – After a stellar debut in relief of an injured Nick Foles, Minshew was not as effective in his first start last week and now he faces a Titans team that allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game last season (216.9).

Marcus Mariota UNDER 197.5 PASSING YARDS – This is a relatively modest total and yet Mariota has not been consistently productive in the passing game so it’s hard to be optimistic about his chances in Jacksonville, facing a Jaguars team that allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (194.6) in 2018.

Leonard Fournette OVER 13.5 FANTASY POINTS – It’s reasonable to believe that the Jaguars will want more of a running game, perhaps to ease the pressure on Minshew, and Fournette can handle a heavy enough workload to grind out yards on the ground and potentially score, but he’s also been a little more of a receiver out of the backfield, with four receptions in each of the first two games this year. He had more than three receptions once in his previous seven games.

Delanie Walker OVER 9.5 FANTASY POINTS – After missing nearly all of the 2018 season, the 35-year-old tight end has returned to the Titans lineup an is a steady threat in a modest passing attack. He has caught nine passes for 94 yards on a dozen targets and is a prime red zone threat.

Derrick Henry OVER 15.5 FANTASY POINTS – Two teams with questionable quarterbacks and two teams with physically imposing running backs capable of handling a significant portion of the offensive touches. With 253 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in the first two weeks, Henry is likely to be a focal point for the Titans attack and if he scores a touchdown, the over should nicely fall into play.

Derrick Henry OVER 75.5 RUSHING YARDS – Sticking with Henry, he appeared to turn a corner in his development late last season and has rushed for 76 yards or more in seven of his past eight games, with the only blemish coming against New England in the playoffs.

Dede Westbrook UNDER 10.5 FANTASY POINTS – A popular fantasy football sleeper coming into the season, the third year wideout has produced a meagre six catches for 33 yards on 11 targets through the first two weeks. Maybe there is something not quite connecting between Westbrook and Minshew and that’s enough reason to exercise caution when forecasting Westbrook’s fantasy totals this week.

Dede Westbrook UNDER 3.5 RECEPTIONS – Maybe this is the game in which Westbrook breaks out and starts on his path to stardom but he’s recorded four or more catches twice in his past nine games and he managed a single catch on five targets last week.

Delanie Walker OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS – The veteran tight end has been averaging more than 44 receiving yards per game since 2013. Certainly, Jacksonville presents a defensive challenge, but Walker is also a needed mid-range option for quarterback Marcus Mariota and has put up at least 44 receiving yards in eight of 11 career games against the Jaguars.

RAPID FIRE

Derrick Henry -5.5 rushing yards vs. Leonard Fournette – Right now, Henry appears to be the safer investment. He’s consistently the lead dog in the Tennessee attack and Fournette has deficits to make up in terms of touches and average yards per carry if he’s going to beat Henry this week.

 

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