Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 14 has gone well. We have an interesting Monday night matchup out in Arizona as the Patriots (6-6) venture west to take on the Cardinals (4-8). Admittedly, I've had a bit of trouble getting a read on this game, but I do have a solid idea of how I want to build my DFS lineups. Let's dig in a bit deeper.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Patriots vs. Cardinals NFL DFS showdown slate on December 12th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,864 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, nine interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.4% (14th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers should be refreshed and ready to attack the Rams' defense tonight following Green Bay's bye week last week.
My model projects Rodgers for 252.58 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns, and just 0.49 interceptions. The formerly "vaunted" Rams pass defense isn't quite what it used to be, and I expect Rodgers to have himself a night tonight.
Aaron Jones - RB, $16,800 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 164 rushing attempts, 847 rushing yards, 58 targets, 48 receptions, 328 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: 7.6% (7th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -17.5% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
I'll be going full-Packers onslaught tonight, and that includes both the passing game and running game for the Green Bay side. I'll give a slight bump to Jones over AJ Dillon tonight, as I think that Jones's work in the passing game gives him enough of an edge between the two to justify the price difference.
My model projects Jones to tote the rock 14.14 times for 54.03 yards while adding 3.22 receptions on 4.14 targets for just under 30 yards and a 47% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: AJ Dillon, Christian Watson, Packers D/ST, Cam Akers
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DFS Flex Plays
Christian Watson - WR, $8,800 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 41 targets, 25 receptions, 4o1 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Troy Hill): 14% targets per route, 69% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll look to stack some Packers wide receivers with Aaron Rodgers tonight. The first one will be Christian Watson. Watson has the best matchup on the slate tonight, with a projected 27.66% DVOA. He's been rather touchdown-dependent, but he's been so consistent on that front that it makes him so hard to fade. My model projects Watson for 4.31 receptions on 6.46 targets for 57.38 receiving yards and a 43% chance of finding the end zone.
Allen Lazard - WR, $7,600 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 75 targets, 45 receptions, 620 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Cobie Durant): 13% targets per route, 57% catch rate, 0.17 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
While I love the Watson play for the matchup as well as the touchdown-scoring ability, I think Lazard is arguably in an even better spot if you take price and everything into consideration. He has a projected 22.16% DVOA, which isn't far off from Watson, and my model projects him to catch 4.34 of 6.44 targets for 55.56 yards and a 42% chance of finding the end zone. I'd stack both with Rodgers but if I'm only playing one, I would lean toward Lazard slightly.
Other Flex Options: AJ Dillon, Baker Mayfield, Cam Akers
DFS Value Plays
Green Bay Packers - D/ST, $5,000 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- Projected DVOA%: -7.79%
You cannot complete a full Packers stack without their defense. Their defense hasn't been anything necessarily impressive, but frankly, neither has the Rams' offense this season. Sure, what Baker Mayfield was able to do against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football last week was impressive, but he's still Baker Mayfield. The only chance the Rams have of breaking this defense down is establishing the run with Cam Akers and Kyren Williams, and I would bet that this Packers defense holds them to under 20 points and grabbing a few turnovers.
Tutu Atwell - WR, $4,400 (DK), $6,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 21 targets, 11 receptions, 237 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Keisan Nixon): 19% targets per route, 75% catch rate, 0.29 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll finish things off with my sole Rams player of the night, Tutu Atwell. Atwell saw a respectable nine targets with Baker Mayfield under center last Thursday, and while I don't think he'll repeat that same kind of volume tonight, I could see him having a solid night relative to his price. My model projects Atwell to grab 2.4 of his 4.36 targets tonight for 36.37 receiving yards while adding 4.77 yards on the ground. He's projected to have just a 14% chance of scoring the touchdown, but should he get in, he could break the slate.
Other Value Plays: Ben Skowronek, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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