Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your Week 10 has gone well. I had a decent day yesterday, picking up the slack from last week. After a long Sunday and a few underdog winners, we have one final game of the week. Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders (4-5) will head into Philly to take on the 8-0 Eagles. We have a large 10.5-point spread tonight, so let's see how it affects our DFS lineups.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Commanders vs Eagles NFL DFS showdown slate on November 14th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Jalen Hurts - QB, $18,300 (DK), $17,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 2,042 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions, 88 rushes, 326 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 34.7% (third), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 13.6% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off with Jalen Hurts as I seemingly do every time the Eagles are in a prime-time matchup. And why not? Hurts has been excellent this season, and had his second-best fantasy performance of the season back in Week 3 against the Commanders; throwing for 340 yards and three touchdowns, as well as adding 20 more yards on the ground. While I don't project him from a similar output tonight necessarily, my model does have him tossing 247.61 yards and 2.1 touchdowns, while adding 48.35 rushing yards and a 48% chance of logging a rushing touchdown.
Taylor Heinicke - QB, $17,100 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 629 passing yards, five touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 rushes, 50 yards, one rushing touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: -8.2% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -28.3% (second), per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the field, we have Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke has seemingly invigorated the Commanders since being under center, with wins over the Packers and Colts, while just narrowly losing to the Vikings last week. It'll be his second career start against the Eagles, and he wasn't so bad in his first, tossing for 247 yards. My projections for him aren't great, but I'll be ignoring them here simply because as 10.5-point underdogs, it seems likely that the Commanders must put the ball in the air in order to stay in this game.
Other Captains/MVPs: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Curtis Samuel
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DFS Flex Plays
DeVonta Smith - WR, $8,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 53 targets, 40 receptions, 442 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Benjamin St.-Juste): 16% targets per route, 52% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
Shouldn't be a very surprising pick here, as DeVonta Smith will look to build on the incredible game he had against Washington back in Week 3, where he caught eight of 12 targets for 169 yards and a touchdown. He has the strongest projected DVOA matchup among all the Eagles pass catchers at 60.54%. My model has him hauling in 4.51 of his 7.84 targets for 63.25 yards and a 41% chance of finding the end zone, a more than reasonable projection, and I'll be happy to correlate him with a 1.5x Jalen Hurts.
Curtis Samuel - WR, $6,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 66 targets, 45 receptions, 455 receiving yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Josiah Scott): No Data.
I'll take a look at Curtis Samuel as my second flex option, and in truth, he's not a horrible 1.5x option either. The Eagles have ruled out Avonte Maddox for tonight's game, leaving the task for Josiah Scott to deal with Samuel in the slot. While Scott played well enough earlier this season in Maddox's stead, he isn't quite up to the same level as Scott. My model projects Samuel to haul in 3.93 of 6.55 targets for 31.68 yards and a 14% chance of finding the end zone. These numbers seem low, but I do expect Samuel to exceed these projections and end up the highest scorer among the Washington skill position guys tonight.
Other Flex Options: Miles Sanders, Eagles D/ST, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert
DFS Value Plays
Jahan Dotson - WR, $5,000 (DK), $8,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 22 targets, 12 receptions, 152 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup: No Data.
After missing the last five weeks, Jahan Dotson appears to be healthy and ready to suit up for tonight's showdown after he was a full participant in Washington's Friday practice. At his cheap price on both sites, this is something we have to take advantage of. He doesn't have the best matchup against the Eagles defense, the only defense he didn't score a touchdown against in the first four games of his career, but I'll look to him to at least hit value in this one tonight.
Jake Elliott - D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 6/8 field goals made/attempted, 23/24 extra points made/attempted.
Finally, I'll round things up with Jake Elliott. Elliott has been reliable all season long for Philadelphia, and we'll look for more of the same tonight. While I am a bit worried about playing Elliott simply due to the fact that the Eagles like to go for it on fourth down when they're in opponent territory, I still feel that Elliott has a solid floor in this one. He logged a 32-yard field goal and three extra points in the Eagles' Week 3 win against the Commanders, and honestly, an identical stat line would be more than enough for me tonight as I'll look to build relatively-balanced lineups.
Other Value Plays: Joey Slye, Logan Thomas, Boston Scott, Quez Watkins
Enjoy your week and good luck everyone!
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