Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an AFC West showdown tonight as Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) head to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (11-1). A win tonight all but wraps up the race for the division title, but the Chargers will want to make up some ground and, at worst, take one more step to lock up the fifth seed. Let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chargers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night NFL DFS showdown slate on December 8. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,979 passing yards, 19 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 46 rushing attempts, 231 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.
- Projected Pass DVOA: -0.93%
We’ll start things off with Patrick Mahomes. While I’m not in love with Mahomes being the highest-priced option on tonight’s slate, I believe he’s still worth a captain/MVP spot. Mahomes played well in the second half of this season. It’s time to come alive for the home stretch in a highly anticipated divisional matchup.
My model projects Mahomes to throw for 254.59 passing yards tonight with 1.74 passing touchdowns and 0.91 interceptions against this fifth-ranked Chargers defense. He projects to add 21.63 yards and 0.11 touchdowns on the ground.
Ladd McConkey - WR, $14,100 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 81 targets, 58 receptions, 815 rushing yards, four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: 11.3%
I’ll flip the field and look at Ladd McConkey, one of my favorite targets over the last few weeks. McConkey has seen the lion’s share of targets the last few weeks, catching 21 of 27 targets for 323 yards. While he hasn't found the end zone in that stretch, he has a chance at it tonight against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed 13 touchdowns in as many games this season.
Ladd McConkey
He’s dealing with a new knee injury, no details, as well as a lingering AC join sprain.
McConkey is a player who’s battled through injuries through his entire career, look at his @InjuryExpertz Injury History below, dating back almost 10 years.
I think McConkey… pic.twitter.com/SqN2A6hVFh
— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) December 7, 2024
My model projects McConkey to catch 6.71 of his 9.3 targets for 77.93 yards and 0.41 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Justin Herbert, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Justin Herbert - QB, $9,800 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,551 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, one interception, 50 rushing attempts, 212 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 21.27%
I’ll look to stack McConkey with Justin Herbert. Herbert has been on a solid run of late, logging at least 17 fantasy points in six of his last seven. That “one” came last week against the Falcons, where Herbert threw for just 147 yards without a touchdown. The Chargers came away with a win in that one, but I guess they will need a bit more from Herbert and the passing offense to get this done.
My model projects Herbert to throw for 257.76 yards and 1.54 touchdowns to just 0.36 interceptions while adding 12.38 yards and 0.14 touchdowns on the ground.
Isiah Pacheco - RB, $8,000 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 41 rushing attempts, 179 rushing yards, nine targets, eight receptions, 59 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -3.49%
I’ll flip the field and talk about Isiah Pacheco next. Pacheco is another guy I wish would be a bit cheaper, mostly because this is his second game back from his ankle injury and his fourth game this season overall. Nevertheless, Pacheco was efficient in his first game back last Friday against the Raiders, averaging 6.3 yards per carry across seven carries.
Tonight, my model projects Pacheco to rush for 47.83 yards on 9.34 carries while adding 12.4 receiving yards on 2.15 receptions and 0.54 total touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Quentin Johnston - WR, $5,800 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 46 targets, 24 receptions, 366 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: -3.4%
I’ll look at a pair of Chargers pass-catchers in the value slots tonight starting with Quentin Johnston. Johnston and fellow receiver Josh Palmer are relatively interchangeable in this spot, though Johnston comes with a bit more upside, scoring a touchdown on 25% of his receptions this season.
My model projects Johston to catch 3.41 of his 6.07 targets for 43.05 receiving yards and 0.36 touchdowns tonight.
Will Dissly - TE, $4,800 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 53 targets, 41 receptions, 399 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 4.5%
I’ll wrap things up with Will Dissly. Dissly was putting a few strong performances together over the last month, which unfortunately ended last Sunday when he only saw on target. The entire Chargers passing offense saw some regression Sunday, though I’m anticipating a bounceback tonight. 4.43 of 6.11 targets for 48.39 yards and 0.31 touchdowns in this one.
My model projects Dissly to catch 4.43 of 6.11 targets for 48.39 yards and 0.31 touchdowns. He is, without question, the top-value option on this slate.
Other Value Options: Josh Palmer, Jalen Reagor, Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cameron Dicker
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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