Welcome back, Merry Christmas, and Happy Holidays RotoBallers! I hope your weekend has gone well so far. We have a matchup of two somewhat underwhelming teams for this Christmas edition of Sunday Night Football, as Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (6-8) head out to Arizona to take on Trace McSorely and the Cardinals (4-10). We can't consider either of these offenses "high-powered", so we'll see how that affects our DFS lineups. Let's take a look!
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Buccaneers vs. Cardinals NFL DFS showdown slate on December 25th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Tom Brady - QB, $15,600 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,897 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 17.6% (12th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 8.5% (20th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start tonight's slate off with Tom Brady. Brady and the Bucs have their backs against the wall now, coming into this one with a 6-8 record and a slim lead in the NFC South. For all that Brady has gone through both on and off the field this season, I believe he takes care of business on Christmas night and effectively seals the deal for the Bucs regarding the NFC South title. I have Brady projected for 297.01 yards, 2.02 touchdown passes, and just 0.54 interceptions.
Leonard Fournette - RB, $11,700 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 159 rushing attempts, 568 rushing yards, 68 targets, 59 receptions, 410 receiving yards, and six touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -21.6% (30th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 4.4% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
I'll take a look at Leonard Fournette in this spot as well. It's so tough deciding between White and Fournette, especially coming off last week where he had ten carries for 44 yards, as well as four receptions on four targets for 30 yards. It was a tough matchup for Tampa running backs against Cincinnati's defense, but this week gets a bit easier against Arizona's defense which sits bottom of the pack against RBs. I have Fournette projected to take 10.27 carries for 50.43 yards, as well as 3.74 receptions on 4.15 targets for 26.77 receiving yards and a 58% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins
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DFS Flex Plays
DeAndre Hopkins - WR, $10,200 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 86 targets, 63 receptions, 713 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Carlton Davis): 19% target rate, 57% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at DeAndre Hopkins. I mentioned a few weeks ago when it was Colt McCoy starting for the Cardinals that Hopkins is effectively "QB-proof". This may or may not be the case with Trace McSorely though. Nevertheless, desperate times call for desperate measures, and if we assume the Bucs shouldn't have too much of an issue getting the win here, it'll be up to Hopkins to keep the Cardinals around. I have him projected for 5.73 receptions on 8.13 targets for 61.08 receiving yards and a 33% chance of finding the end zone.
Mike Evans - WR, $9,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 107 targets, 64 receptions, 888 yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Marco Wilson): 15% target rate, 60% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll look at Mike Evans over Chris Godwin in my second flex spot, mostly for his price as well as the matchup. I will certainly have shares of both, but I rate Evans's matchup with Marco Wilson just a bit better than Godwin's. My model agrees as well, as it has Evans projected for 5.67 receptions on 8.49 targets for 70.79 receiving yards and a 36% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: James Connor, Chris Godwin, Rechaad White, Russell Gage, Marquise Brown
DFS Value Plays
Cade Otton - TE, $4,800 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 51 targets, 37 receptions, 357 yards, and two touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Ben Niemann): 17% target rate, 84% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered, per PFF.
I'll take a look at Cade Otton as another pass catcher to pair with Brady and Evans/Godwin. The Bucs have a projected 35.1% DVOA when targeting their tight ends in this game, and Otton's matchup against Ben Niemann is a strong one. I expect him to have a big night in the intermediate passing game, despite my model projecting him a bit low. He's projected for 2.78 receptions on 3.62 targets for 28.09 receiving yards and a 22% chance of scoring a touchdown. The somewhat re-emergence of Cameron Brate makes me a bit more nervous about this play, but I'll have some shares of both.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - D/ST, $4,600 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 19.1 points per game allowed, 40 sacks, eight interceptions, five fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
- Projected Weighted DVOA: -18.75%
Last but not least, I'll talk about the Buccaneers' defense for a minute. For as much as the Bucs have struggled throughout the season, it hasn't really been the defense that's been the issue. In saying that, though, I have to acknowledge they've given up 35 and 34 points over the last two weeks, respectively. I'm projecting them to have a bounce-back game in this one against a third-string quarterback in Trace McSorely.
Other Value Plays: Ryan Succop, Cameron Brate
Enjoy the rest of your weekend and good luck everyone!
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