Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with another Monday Night Football showdown article! We have an AFC showdown tonight with two teams that are closer in the AFC standings than one might've thought at this point in the year as Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos (3-5) head into Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills (5-4).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Broncos vs. Bills NFL DFS showdown slate on November 13. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $18,900 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,423 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 44 rushing attempts, 233 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 71.07%
I'll start things off with Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are obviously up against it a bit here record-wise, and it'll be up to their big guy to turn things around as we head into the winter months towards the playoffs. Allen projects to 282.63 passing yards and 2.47 touchdowns tonight, as well as 25.43 rushing yards and 0.17 touchdowns with his legs. The Bills have a fantastic matchup on the offensive side of things and the Bills are not shy about throwing the ball wire-to-wire no matter the score. Allen is clearly the top option on this slate in my opinion.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $12,600 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 45 targets, 40 receptions, 339 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs TE: 15.17%
I'll take a look at one of Allen's pass-catching options as my second favorite 1.5x guy tonight. Kincaid projects to 5.25 receptions on 6.9 targets for 61.08 yards and 0.39 touchdowns. Kincaid has really come along in the absence of Dawson Knox and is paying dividends for the Bills drafting him this past April. He's still a bit undervalued on sportsbooks and DFS in my opinion and I'll be backing him on both sites tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Stefon Diggs, James Cook, Javonte Williams
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DFS Flex Plays
Stefon Diggs - WR, $12,000 (DK), $15,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 97 targets, 70 receptions, 834 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 24.27%
I'll take a look at Stefon Diggs next. While I prefer Kincaid over Diggs in the 1.5x spot tonight, I really like the correlation with Allen and Diggs here, obviously. Diggs has been the top target for Allen this season and looks to be so again tonight as he projects to 8.65 receptions on 10.65 targets for 107.57 receiving yards and 0.87 touchdowns. He has a great matchup and should feast on this Broncos defense.
Courtland Sutton - WR, $7,000 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 46 targets, 33 receptions, 380 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
On the other side of the field, someone is going to have to set the tone for Denver. Now, the Broncos' defense did hold Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to just nine points two weeks ago, but I can't imagine they'll have a repeat performance tonight against Josh Allen and the Bills. Sutton projects to 3.41 receptions on 6.61 targets for 48.13 receiving yards and 0.28 touchdowns. I'll have shares of both Sutton and Jerry Jeudy tonight, but I slightly lean toward Sutton here.
Other Flex Options: Jared Cook, Jerry Jeudy, Javonte Williams, Russell Wilson
DFS Value Plays
Buffalo Bills - D/ST, $5,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 17.78 points per game allowed, 29 sacks, eight interceptions, six fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
I'll take a look at the Bills defense next. The Bills' defense has been marred with injuries this season, but I think they have a good game in them tonight. I'm not buying the narrative that Wilson and the Broncos are back despite their impressive win against Kansas City two weeks ago. According to my model, the Bills project to pressure Wilson at a 31.13% clip and actually get to Wilson at an 11.53% clip. I think they will force him to make a few errors and get the job done.
Samaje Perine - RB, $1,200 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 27 rushing attempts, 103 rushing yards, 26 targets, 22 receptions, 231 receiving yards, two fumbles lost.
- Projected Rush DVOA: -7.16%
I'll wrap things up here with Samaje Perine. You could go with either Perine or Jaleel McLaughlin here, to be honest. Perine hasn't done a ton here, and this is surely not a fantastic matchup for the Broncos on the ground. However, I noted when talking about the Bills defense they'll be getting after Wilson early and often tonight. With that, I can see a lot of dump-offs with the trio of running backs putting numbers up out of the backfield in the passing game.
Other Value Plays: Khalil Shakir, Tyler Bass, Jaleel McLaughlin
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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