Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have an interesting matchup tonight between two teams that have not lived up to expectations in 2024. Some of this is due to injury, some of it due to holes on the roster. Nevertheless, it’ll be Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) heading down south to take on Cooper Rush and the Cowboys (5-7).
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Cowboys Monday Night Football NFL DFS showdown slate on December 9. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. For questions, follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS, or sign up for RotoBaller premium to chat any time!
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Burrow - QB, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,337 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 33 rushing attempts, 160 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown
- Projected Pass DVOA: 31.27%
I’ll start things off with Joe Burrow. While it’s apparent that the Bengals have underperformed as a team in 2024, it’s been no fault of Burrow’s. The Cincinnati offense ranks sixth in offensive DVOA and fifth in passing DVOA. Burrow has put together an MVP-type season, but unfortunately won’t be in the running for the award due to the team's performance -- or lack thereof.
My model projects Burrow to throw for 273.03 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns tonight while adding 19.52 yards and 0.31 touchdowns on the ground. He’s a sneaky pick for a touchdown scorer in this one.
CeeDee Lamb - WR, $14,100 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 124 targets, 79 receptions, 880 rushing yards, four touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR1: -11%
I’ll flip the field and take a look at CeeDee Lamb next. It’s been a frustrating campaign for the Oklahoma product, even before Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending hamstring injury. The matchup isn’t perfect here, as Cincinnati has been able to hold the opposing team’s top receivers (relatively) at bay, but this Dallas offense goes as Lamb goes.
My model projects Lamb to catch 7.46 of his 11.35 targets for 88.32 yards and 0.53 touchdowns tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Gesicki, Jake Ferguson
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Tee Higgins - WR, $9,600 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 68 targets, 43 receptions, 558 receiving yards, five touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 10.9%
I’ll stick with a receiver as we begin our flex plays, but it won’t be Cincinnati’s top receiver this time. It’ll be Tee Higgins, who’s been arguably better than Ja'Marr Chase. That is when Higgins is on the field. Higgins has seen at least 10 targets in four of his seven games played in 2024 and draws the best matchup of all Bengals receivers in terms of DVOA.
My model projects Higgins to catch 6.3 of 9.34 targets for 78.26 yards and 0.52 touchdowns tonight.
Rico Dowdle - RB, $9,000 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 134 rushing attempts, 600 rushing yards, 40 targets, 32 receptions, 195 receiving yards, and four touchdowns
- Projected Rush DVOA: -12.19%
I’ll look to a running game piece for the first time in this game with Rico Dowdle. While I believe both of these teams will air it out and at least make for an exciting Monday Night Football game, there’s a decent shot these teams look to pound the rock and take advantage of their opponent’s bottom-ranked rushing defense.
On the toss play that got Rico Dowdle over 100 yards for the first time in his career, the left side of the o-line opened like the Seven Seas 🌊#DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/ARl6k7miMO
— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) November 29, 2024
My model projects Dowdle to run the ball for 68.77 yards on 14.5 rushing attempts, adding 3.53 receptions on 4.66 targets for 28.5 yards and 0.69 total touchdowns. I lean Dowdle slightly over Chase Brown here, but I’ll have plenty of both.
Other Flex Options: Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Cooper Rush
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jake Ferguson - TE, $5,400 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 58 targets, 43 receptions, 369 receiving yards
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 19.5%
Alright, enough of that running game stuff. I’ll look at a pair of tight ends for my value plays tonight. We’ll start with Jake Ferguson, who will return after clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol, which had kept him on the sideline for the last two weeks.
My model projects Ferguson to catch 4.79 of his 6.01 targets for 44.64 yards and 0.34 touchdowns.
Mike Gesicki - TE, $5,600 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 52 targets, 39 receptions, 436 receiving yards, two touchdowns
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: 3.8%
I’ll wrap things up with Mike Gesicki, whose production has gone up and down all season. This is no fault of his own, as he remains the third (or fourth?) option in this Cincinnati passing offense. Despite this, he’s pieced together plenty of great weeks and will look to do so again tonight against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27th in touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season.
My model projects Gesicki to catch 3.29 of 4.71 targets for 31.96 yards and 0.28 touchdowns in this one.
Other Value Options: Andrei Iosivas, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert, Jermaine Burton
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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