Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a fun Sunday Night Football as Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers (5-6) travel east to take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (9-2). As the Bills look to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC, the 49ers fight for their playoff lives in a tight NFC West race. Let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.
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MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
James Cook - RB, $14,400 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 137 rushing attempts, 596 rushing yards, 31 targets, 25 receptions, 182 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns.
- Projected Rush DVOA: 9.91%
I’ll start tonight’s slate off with the guy who has the best matchup of the night, James Cook. San Francisco is banged up, and it’s been reported that star linebacker Fred Warner has been playing most of this season on a fractured ankle. There’s no doubt that this contributes to the 49ers 21st-ranked rushing defense.
Fred Warner is set to play his 9TH STRAIGHT GAME with a fractured ankle 😱 pic.twitter.com/OcXPFWEJuH
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 27, 2024
My model projects Cook to run for 65.57 yards on 14.5 attempts while adding 2.24 receptions for 16.37 yards on 3.4 targets.
Khalil Shakir - WR, $12,000 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 66 targets, 56 receptions, 599 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 28.3%
While it’s my opinion that the Bills will use the ground game to control the direction this game goes, there will be plenty of opportunities for Josh Allen and his pass-catchers. Shakir has the best matchup of any Buffalo pass-catchers, as San Francisco ranks 27th against opposing teams’ second receivers.
My model projects Shakir 5.2 of his 6.6 targets for 55.74 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Each of these numbers represents the highest projection among the Buffalo receiving corps, and he’s a solid option in the captain/MVP spot.
Other Captains/MVPs: George Kittle, Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy
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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Allen - QB, $11,000 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 2,543 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 67 rushing attempts, 316 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns.
- Projected Pass DVOA: 14.84%
I’ll start with the current MVP favorite, Josh Allen, as we move into our flex options. Allen has been excellent in 2024, no different than previous seasons. Much like the rest of the league, Buffalo has shifted towards a balanced offense, utilizing running backs Cook and Ray Davis to move the ball down the field. Allen still answers the bell when called upon, and I expect more of the same tonight.
My model projects Allen to throw for 225.48 yards and 1.6 touchdowns while adding 30.29 yards and 0.45 touchdowns with his legs. Despite being the highest-projected player on the slate, I prefer the likes of Shakir and Cook in the captain/MVP spot for salary reasons and the limited ceiling Allen provides due to my projected game script.
Jauan Jennings - WR, $7,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 65 targets, 47 receptions, 628 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Opponent DVOA vs. WR2: 15.3%
I’ll flip the field and look at my first San Francisco player of the night, Jauan Jennings. Jennings draws the strongest matchup in the 49ers offense. It’s anticipated that Purdy will be under center for the 49ers tonight, and Jennings continues to be a strong and reliable option for Purdy in the passing game. He’s caught 15 of his 18 targets in the last two games with Purdy.
My model projects Jennings to catch 4.79 of his 6.92 targets for 55.59 yards and 0.37 touchdowns.
Other Flex Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Amari Cooper, George Kittle
Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks
Jake Moody - K, $5,200 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 18/22 field goals made/attempted, 17/17 extra points made/attempted.
I’ll stick with the San Francisco side as we head into our value options. Jake Moody is a good start. I believe that the San Francisco offense can do enough to move the ball against this seventh-ranked Bills defense, at the very least.
However, the question remains what Kyle Shanahan’s offense will do on the Buffalo cold on the Bills’ side of the field? I’m projecting there will be multiple instances where the Niners will have to settle for a field goal, giving Moody a solid floor.
Dawson Knox - TE, $4,000 (DK), $7,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 22 targets, 14 receptions, 182 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opponent DVOA vs. TE: -10.3%
I’ll wrap things up with Dawson Knox. Knox will see most of the tight-end snaps in this one as Dalton Kincaid misses his second straight game with a knee injury. Knox did well in his escalated role last week, catching four of six targets for 40 yards against the Chiefs.
Tonight, my model projects Knox to catch 3.96 of his 5.29 targets for 39.03 yards and 0.41 touchdowns. He is the best value option on the slate and will likely be the highest-owned. I do find this “chalk” to be worth it, and I won’t be missing out here.
Other Value Options: Ty Johnson, Ricky Pearsall, Ray Davis, Bills D/ST
Enjoy the rest of your weekend, and good luck, everyone!
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