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The brilliance of the NCAA tournament is being played out this year. This is a year in which we have had many upsets, and at the end of the day, the Final Four is the all-time winningest program in the NCAA (Kansas), No. 3 (North Carolina), and No. 4 (Duke), along with the team that has won two NCAA tournaments in the last six years. At some point, the cream rises to the top. All four of these teams are playing some of their best basketball and it will make for a fun Final Four.
Similar to all of the previous rounds, I am going to share my top betting picks for each subsequent round of the NCAA Tournament here at RotoBaller, and am excited to share my thoughts with you! Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
This article highlights my top college basketball betting picks for the Final Four (Saturday, April 2nd). I will be posting a spreadsheet with all of my bets for the NCAA tournament. You can follow all of my picks, including live picks, on my Twitter @Mark_Kieffer. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time and reference the odds at Caesars Sportsbook. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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#2 Villanova vs. #1 Kansas
Saturday 6:09 PM
It is my belief that whoever wins this game will win the NCAA Tournament. Looking at the game lines, Kansas is a four-point favorite, a -190 favorite on the Moneyline, and the total is set to 133.0 points. My first reaction was that this four-point spread was too high, given this game is close to a coin flip for me. Then I remembered that Justin Moore is injured. Is he worth three points in the point spread?
Villanova has four contributors that they rely on: Collin Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, Eric Dixon, and Justin Moore. Even with Moore out, they will have three big contributors that could theoretically pick up the slack, so it is not like Villanova is a one-man team.
I want to take Villanova and the points; they are the best free-throw shooting team in the country and they shoot 35.7% from the three-point range. I like them being able to keep the score close and possibly back door cover if they are down by more than four. As the week goes on, people could jump on the Moore injury and the point spread could move up in favor of Kansas.
I have two bets for this game: first half under 62.5 (-110) and then Villanova +4 (-110).
Pick: Villanova +4 (-110), first half Under 62.5 (-110)
#8 North Carolina vs. #2 Duke
Saturday 8:49 PM
It is kind of hard to believe that given the history of these two programs, they have not met in the NCAA tournament before. Duke is a four and a half point favorite, a -200 Moneyline, and the total is set to 151.0 points.
While both teams are capable of scoring (Duke is No. 1 in offensive efficiency, North Carolina is No. 18 in offensive efficiency), we could be in store for a low-scoring first half. The Final Four adds a whole other level to the tournament. The teams are going to be excited but also cautious. Neither side will want to lose to their rival to end their season! Would you want to be eliminated by your arch-rival?
It feels weird to have this take given North Carolina has averaged 82.5 points, and Duke has averaged 79.75 points per game during this tournament. Duke's defense has been improving throughout the tournament. Michigan State scored 1.15 points per possession, Texas Tech was 1.09 points per possession, and then Arkansas was 0.99 points per possession. Really for Duke, it was an effort and focus thing as opposed to talent with playing better defense. They won the first two games of the tournament by being better offensively and they won with their defense (their 1.11 points per possession against Arkansas was the lowest of their tournament). North Carolina has been playing better defense as well, keeping their opponents under one point per possession on average (Baylor was 1.03 points per possession).
Because of this, I am going to take Under 71.5 points for the first half and hope I can profit from the tentativeness and the improved defenses of both teams early on in the game.
Pick: First half Under 71.5 points (-110)
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy the Final Four! I will write an update for the Championship, so be sure to check back on Sunday. Good luck RotoBallers!
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