RADIO
Last season, the Rangers surprised the baseball world by trading superstar Yu Darvish to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a return that, at the time, was deemed pretty sparse. The centerpiece was a little known, and maybe lesser-appreciated infielder named Willie Calhoun.
Drafted in the fourth round of the 2015 MLB draft, Calhoun started his pro career off with a bang, hitting a .316/.390/.509 with 11 HR and 47 RBI across three levels. Showcasing a natural swing with plus power and insane bat speed, it became clear that he could be a major asset at the plate.
So, if he’s such a natural hitter, why wasn’t he paraded around as the Next Big Thing? The biggest problem with Calhoun as a ballplayer is one that won’t show up in the box score: no one knows where he’s going to play in the field.
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In or Out (field)?
Throughout his minor league career, Calhoun has been raised as a second baseman. As he moved into the higher levels, it became painfully obvious that he lacked the lateral quickness in his stout 5-foot-8, 210 lb frame to handle the position. Looking at him, he’d look right at home lining up as a Maurice Jones-Drew style running back. The Dodgers moved him around the diamond to find a more natural fit with little success. Of course, this is less of a problem for the Rangers, who can deploy him at DH.
Usually, power bats with little athleticism are placed at first base, but the diminutive Californian’s stature makes that a poor fit. He’ll likely play enough in left field to qualify in fantasy formats going forward, and there is an outside shot that he is placed at second base on occasion. This positional ambiguity has led Calhoun to be under-publicized as a must-know prospect. In fact, had Calhoun not been traded for Darvish, it’s likely that far fewer would have heard of him.
Lack of publicity aside, Calhoun’s blend of plate control and power are going to play at any position, even DH. In 2016, the slugger mashed 27 HR and 88 RBI in Double-A at the age of 21. A .254 AVG and .318 OBP are ho-hum, but then you notice that he struck out just 11.6% of the time. Guys that can slug 25 or more HR with a sub 20% K rate are rare, and Calhoun does it routinely. Last season, Calhoun took another step forward, smashing 31 HR and 93 RBI on .300/.355/.572, all at Triple A. Injuries prompted a September cup of coffee, and he showed that he could hang with the big club, hitting .265/.324/.353 with a HR and just an 18.9% K rate across 37 at-bats. The power didn’t quite translate in his first taste, but he showed that he could control the strike zone and make good contact with big league arms.
Most projection models predict Calhoun as a valuable fantasy asset for 2018, though there is definitely some disparity. The more pessimistic pundits suggest that he’ll get fewer at-bats and that his power will take some time to translate. What they all agree on, however, is that he’ll likely hit around .280 and will keep those strikeouts down. Calhoun takes fewer walks than you’d like, but that’s a product of honestly believing he can hit anything thrown at him. That will probably cool down in the bigs, and I sincerely expect him to bump that walk percentage up as his first season plays out.
The 2018 season could represent a huge opportunity for fantasy players that are aware of Calhoun. The question of where Calhoun will play in the field will hover over him for the foreseeable future. But for 2018, Calhoun currently qualifies in most formats as a second baseman. This may change as the season gets closer, and you’ll want to keep an eye out to make sure that hasn’t changed before you draft him. In the 12 games he saw action, Calhoun played left field 11 times, so it’s likely he’ll enter the season with dual eligibility. While he won’t keep that positional advantage going forward, it’s nice to know that Rougned Odor won’t be blocking his big bat. For keeper leagues and dynasty leagues, take this positional adjustment into considerations. For redrafts, reap the benefits.
Calhoun is currently being drafted somewhere around pick 300 to 330, meaning he’s going undrafted in most leagues. That puts him in the range of useful bench pieces (e.g. Logan Morrison, Jedd Gyorko, Yangervis Solarte), buy-lows (Joc Pederson, Chris Devenski), and second catchers (Tyler Flowers, Chance Sisco). That ADP puts him around the 97th OF off the board, behind Ben Gamel, Yasmany Tomas, and the bones of Ben Zobrist. If he qualifies at 2B, you’ll be able to snag him after Jose Reyes and Brad Miller. None of those players mentioned have near Calhoun’s offensive upside. Fair warning that it is likely his stock will rise significantly as the offseason drags on. But it's hard to see his draft position rise over around pick 220, giving his owners plenty of room to profit off of that investment.
Speaking of that upside, it is considerable. Calhoun’s high-contact approach mixed with the big power and natural loft to his swing will support higher than average line drive and fly ball rates. For a player like Calhoun, this is good since he’s not exactly fleet of foot. He is one of the more dynamic offensive weapons Texas can deploy, so he should receive plenty of at-bats even early in the season. His profile and experience last September suggest that he will hit near .280 with around 13% of his at-bats ending in strikeouts. For OBP leagues, I wouldn’t expect him to walk often early on, but watch for that to improve as the season wears on. As far as counting stats, 25 HR and 80 RBI is a reasonable expectation as a floor, with a real chance to push those to 30 and 100 should he take his natural place in the middle of the lineup.
Willie Calhoun offers the power upside of a three-true-outcomes slugger with none of the strikeout and AVG concerns. He is a true four category contributor, and finding those at the ends of drafts are rarities. Without going overboard on hyperbole, Calhoun is the type of pick at the end of a draft that can give a team a massive advantage. He’ll cost you very little, but will likely pay massive dividends. Pick him in the reserve rounds, and expect OF3-4 level production. This kid is for real, and he’s on his way up.
