We are back at it for the second time this week, trying to find some home runs at plus money. On Tuesday, we went one for four, so I am looking to get to the fifty percent plateau on today's window of games. When betting on home runs, I recommend scaling back how much you wager. My favorite way to bet these is a round-robin series of bets.
We have a small slate of games today, but that does not mean there is not an array of bats to choose from. I did my best to sort through the best options in great matchups, form, and hitting conditions to help us bring home some cold, hard cash this Thursday.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for the MLB games on Thursday, April 17, 2025. All odds are from either DraftKings or FanDuel sportsbooks, but I encourage you to shop for the best price with other books.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, April 17:
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 home runs (+420 FanDuel)
Kyle Schwarber will lead us off today for our first home run bet of the day. Schwarber gets a good matchup in his home park against a right-handed pitcher who has struggled with the long ball to left-handed hitters.
Jordan Hicks is not an arm I will usually attack for home runs, but there are some recent trends and pitch mix data that I cannot ignore here. Hicks in 2025 has a 1.37 HR/9 and over his last two starts has a 1.93 HR/9.
Hicks has struggled with left-hand hitters this season. He has a .447 wOBA, .250 ISO, and an 81.0 Hard Hit percentage. He has a 28.6 percent GB to left-hand hitters compared to a 69.2 percent GB to right-hand hitters. Hicks has allowed two home runs this season to lefties after allowing twelve in 2024.
As we all know, Schwarber is an elite power bat, especially in this matchup. Since the start of last season, Schwarber has a .351 wOBA, .262 ISO, and a 33.0 percent FB against right-hand pitching. In 2025, he already has a .243 ISO against the split.
BOOOOOOOM 💥
KYLE SCHWARBER LEADOFF HOME RUN!!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/NLEXHkplAP
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 5, 2024
Citizens Bank Park has been a friendly park for left-handed hitters over the past few years. Left-handed hitters have hit 113 home runs over the last three years, fifth in MLB.
My favorite part of this matchup is how Schwarber hits the pitch mix from Hicks. Below is the full arsenal against left-hand hitters that Hicks will throw and how Schwarber hits pitches like it.
- SI: .486 wOBA, .368 ISO
- ST: .611 wOBA, .778 ISO
- FF: .447 wOBA, .429 ISO
- FS: .204 wOBA, .000 ISO
Schwarber destroys everything from Hicks except the splitter. He throws it 14 percent of the time to LHH. That means 86 percent of the time, Schwarber is going to get a pitch from Hicks that he hits for a very high ISO. Schwarber is the king of leadoff dongs, so let’s get the party started nice and early! Everyone loves a no-sweat bet that cashes early in the game.
Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 home runs (+500 FanDuel)
I mentioned earlier about some recent trends I was buying into, and this is one of them. What is wrong with Tanner Bibee? He has allowed a 2.51 HR/9 in 2025 and a 4.15 HR/9 over his last two starts. He has already allowed four home runs this season.
Bibee has gotten hit hard by both sides of the plate in 2025. He has allowed a .384 wOBA and a .270 ISO to righties in 2025 and a .326 wOBA and a .278 ISO to lefties. In 2024, he was dominant against right-handed hitters but allowed a .348 wOBA and a .197 ISO to lefties.
Bibee is struggling a bit more against lefties, which is great for this park. Camden Yards has surrendered the 15th most home runs over the last three years to left-handed hitters but only the 19th to righties. There are a few lefties in this lineup who hit Bibee well, but Henderson stands out above the rest.
Gunnar had a .396 wOBA and a .262 ISO against right-hand pitching in 2024. He has struggled a bit since his return from the IL, but is only 28 plate appearances in and is swinging it better this weekend against Cleveland’s staff.
Gunnar, like Schwarber, hits the mix of Bibee extremely well. Below are his numbers vs. the pitches Tanner Bibee throws.
- FF: .393 wOBA, 259 ISO
- CH: .349 wOBA, .250 ISO
Believe it or not, this is 87 percent of the mix he has thrown to LHH this season. This is a significant change from 2024, when he threw the FC just as much as his CH. Gunnar hits both of these pitches well, and with Bibee’s splits and recent form, I like his chances of taking him deep tonight.
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I thought I would be writing up a New York Yankee as they come to their affiliate stadium, Steinbrenner Park, in Tampa. As some of you may already know, this park has created some major power numbers to start 2025. The right field porch is one of the shortest in baseball, and it is warm in Tampa. Warm weather combined with the small dimensions should make for the perfect conditions for a lot of home runs to be hit there this season.
I love this matchup for Lowe with Will Warren. It is the reason I ultimately went with Lowe instead of trying to attack Taj Bradley. In 2024, Lowe had a .335 wOBA and a .221 ISO against right-hand pitching and is off to a blistering start in 2025 with a .349 wOBA and a .191 ISO against the split.
Warren has good stuff, but he also allows some hard-hit balls and fly balls. In 2024, he posted a 1.99 HR/9, 42.0 percent FB, and a 36.2 Hard Hit percentage. In 2025, he has a 1.29 HR/9, 37.1 percent FB, and a 34.3 Hard Hit percentage. Balls hit hard in the air in this park will often leave the yard.
Lowe is a heavy pull hitter, as seen in the chart below. There is not a park in the big leagues that plays to Lowe’s strength more than Steinbrenner Field. I will be all over his props when he gets good matchups vs. right-handed pitchers in his home park. Tonight is no different.
Corey Seager OVER 0.5 home runs (+320 DraftKings)
Last but certainly not least is my man Corey Seager. He will square off against Jack Kochanowicz, who has some fairly concerning underlying metrics that I want to attack.
Kochanowicz in 2025 has a 4.67 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1.72 HR/9 and a 35.3 percent FB. Over his last two starts, he has a 1.96 HR/9 and a 38.2 Hard Hit percentage. Over that same span, he has a 96.6 Z-Contact percentage. He also has a .336 wOBA and a .273 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. So, what does all this mean?
It means Seager is going yard! In all seriousness, Kochanowicz is not missing bats and is getting walloped hard in the air. Seager is heating up after a three-hit night last night and a near-miss of a home run to dead center. He has a .392 wOBA and a .251 ISO since the start of last season vs. right-hand pitching.
Seager handles the mix of Kochanowicz extremely well. He throws three pitches to left-hand hitters, and two of them are fastballs. This is not a good recipe for success against Seager.
- SI: .499 wOBA, .172 ISO
- FF: .390 wOBA, .293 ISO
- SL: .402 wOBA, .261 ISO
The Angels’ bullpen has also been horrendous this season. They have a 4.69 xFIP, 1.78 HR/9, 40.1 percent FB, and a 35.2 Hard Hit percentage. Even when Kochanowicz gets taken out, the matchup for Seager will be great.
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