Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Kyler Murray Is a QB1 in 2019 Redraft Leagues


For reasons that are completely understandable, the primary focus on rookies after they are drafted is on their long-term outlook, particularly as it pertains to keeper/dynasty formats. Much of the discussion centers around where a rookie should go in a rookie draft and how valuable he will be over the next few years.

What about the redraft leagues? With all of the talk on Kyler Murray's future, his present is being glossed over.

We know that the quarterback position itself is devalued in standard, single-QB redraft leagues. Even understanding that to be the case, Kyler Murray is being seriously undervalued in terms of what he can do as a rookie.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Three Tiers High and Rising

Let's start with Murray's ADP. Now, it is currently May. Once Murray plays in the preseason, all it will take is a couple of highlight-reel plays to spike his ADP multiple rounds. Such is the fickle nature of fantasy gamers. Recency bias is strong. As of now, Murray is trending as a high-end QB2 going in the 10th round. I rarely consider a QB any earlier than the ninth round, but even if Murray gets to the eighth round, he may be worth it on upside alone.

Murray is currently going behind guys like Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, and Carson Wentz. Murray has a higher ceiling than all of them. If you're waiting on a QB, you don't need a guy that is going to be a reliable QB1 like Rivers has been for the better part of a decade (seriously, he's the QB10-14 every year, why are people drafting him on purpose?).

In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals attempted just 495 passes as a team, 29th in the league. They ranked dead last in plays per drive at 5.03 and yards per drive at 21.18. By a number of offensive team metrics, the Cardinals were the worst. The team played slow, failed to extend drives, and called ineffective and inefficient plays. We know that QB volume does not correlate with fantasy points, but we also know that passing is the most effective way to move the ball down the field and extend drives. The Cardinals are going to pass a lot more in 2019, which will achieve first downs, allow the offense to run more plays, and result in more points scored.

 

Air Raid Remix

I don't profess to know how Kliff Kingsbury, an unsuccessful college coach, will perform in the NFL. What I am quite confident in saying is that Kingsbury's offense will score points.

Kingsbury is bringing his Air Raid offense to Arizona and, by all accounts, he is prepared to go all in on the passing game. The Cardinals drafted Christian Kirk last year, who is poised for a second-year breakout and spent two picks this year on WRs Andy Isabella and Hakeem Butler. With David Johnson ready to be used properly, Murray has weapons at his disposal.

Murray threw for 4361 yards at Oklahoma last season and rushed for another 1001, scoring a total of 59 touchdowns. We know that rushing QBs are a cheat code in fantasy football. Last year, after returning from injury in Week 12, Josh Allen was the overall fantasy QB1 over the remainder of the season. During that same timeframe, Lamar Jackson was the QB6. Kyler Murray is a vastly superior player to either of those two guys. Both Allen and Jackson were bad passers. Murray completed 69% of his throws in college last season. Murray is accurate to all areas of the field, both short and deep. He has displayed an incredible ability to maneuver in the pocket and avoid pressure, which will mask the deficiencies of the Cardinals' weak offensive line.

I really can't envision a scenario where Murray isn't at least what Lamar Jackson was last year from a fantasy perspective, surviving weekly on his rushing ability. Murray is going to run. He is going to run a lot. Murray should rush for at least a touchdown's worth of yardage per game, probably more. Is it really that difficult to project Murray for 200 yards passing and 50 rushing yards per game as well as two touchdowns? That's 21 fantasy points per game. 21 ppg would have made him the overall QB4 last year and it doesn't seem that difficult to attain.

But what happens if the offense takes off and Murray just lights it up? He has a Patrick Mahomes-level ceiling. The sky is genuinely the limit for Murray. A 1,000-yard rushing season is not out of the question. Neither is a 40-touchdown passing season. I'm not suggesting that either of these things is likely, merely that they are plausible.

 

Bet on Upside

If you are taking a shot on a QB late, it should be Kyler Murray. He has overall QB1 upside and a safe, low-end QB1 floor. I think his floor is just as high, if not higher than most of the guys going around him and none of those guys have a top three ceiling. Murray does. You can easily stream a low-end QB1 every week. For a QB to matter in matchups, he needs to be elite. Murray has that in his range of outcomes and that fact may justify taking him a round or two earlier than you normally would take a QB on the chance that he could make much more of a difference than the WR or RB dart you would otherwise be throwing.

I am extremely bullish on Murray and believe he will finish as a top-six fantasy QB as a rookie leading a resurgent Cardinals offense. We can revisit his ADP in August, but, for now, you should be prepared to target Kyler Murray in redraft leagues.

More NFL Rookie Profiles


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




More Recent Articles

 

Week 12 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Colts Conundrum: What To Do With Marlon Mack Hurt

Hello, my name is Eric Samulski, and I spent all my FAAB on Brian Hill last week. Phew! I’m glad we got that out of the way. Now that that’s on the table, we can talk honestly about this week's biggest running back decision: How the Colts will replace Marlon Mack, who just underwent surgery on... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Sunday was one of the worst Sunday's Vegas has had all season and remaining entrants in survivor pools nearly had the same fate. However, the Vikings rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit, the 49ers scored late, and the Cowboys win was much narrower than it should have been. The Saints, Bills, and Ravens took care... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 12

Apologies for not making it out last week. I welcomed my daughter into the world, and while I would have loved the distraction of looking at the ability of offensive lines, that wasn't going to happen. Moving onto Week 12, the outcome of your season-long leagues is now taking shape and you know if you... Read More


Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Kenny Golladay

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More


Wide Receiver Leaderboards Entering the Final Stretch - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Jeff Driskel, Deebo Samuel, Kenyan Drake

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 12

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-8 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-3 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More


Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More


Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More