Junior Guerra (SP, MIL) - Waiver Wire Pickups

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ANALYSIS: Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Junior Guerra has now made two starts since returning from the disabled list and has allowed one run in 11 2/3 innings, seeing his ERA drop to 1.84 for the season. The Brewers' Opening Day starter had a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 121 2/3 innings last season, so this hot start is not a shock. He missed a month and a half with a calf injury after allowing two runs in three innings on Opening Day, but that should not diminish his value. While maintaining his current statistics would be highly unlikely, Guerra has seen a drop in hard hit balls and line drive percentage, meaning that a drop in BABIP is logical. What is illogical is that he will continue to strand 98.4% runners, so expect that to normalize (his career average of 80.8% is still good) and for his ERA to go up a bit as well. A jump in ground ball percentage to 46.2% is a good sign as well, showing that Guerra is limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.

Guerra does not profile as a high strikeout pitcher, 13 in 14 2/3 innings this season and 7.4 strikeotuts per nine this season, but his low WHIP over the last two seasons shows that he limits damage. He is a very good start on June 5 at home against the Giants and should be considered in deeper formats, even if only as a streaming option.


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