X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Jonathan Villar: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Every fantasy manager has a weakness for a particular player or even player type. Perhaps you've rostered Nomar Mazara for the last five years because you just know that breakout is coming. Maybe you always spend a draft pick on Eduardo Rodriguez because this is the year he finally pitches up to his peripherals. You might overdraft unproven prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Adley Rutschman and be disappointed with their big league numbers.

This author has a weakness for Jonathan Villar. Villar was cut by the lowly Chicago Cubs after slashing .218/.271/.321 with two homers and six steals across 170 PAs this season after a solid 2021 that saw him hit .249/.322/.416 with 18 homers and 14 steals. The production wasn't there, but the 31-year-old isn't that old and may have been banking on more consistent playing time than the Cubs gave him.

The Angels picked up Villar and figure to use him every day, going so far as to bat him leadoff (in front of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani) in his first game with the club. Unfortunately, the rest of his peripherals reveal some troubling signs that suggest Villar's lack of production in Chicago was no fluke. His change of scenery provides a reason for optimism, but there's a lot to overcome.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

Jonathan Villar's Whifftastic Season

Villar has always struck out too often and his 25.9 K% this season is right in line with his career norms. However, the metrics behind that K% are worrisome. His current 15.2 SwStr% would be a career-worst, and all of the additional swings and misses are coming on pitches in the zone with a career-worst 76.9 Z-Contact%. Villar's career Z-Contact% is 80.6, foreshadowing an increase in his K% unless something changes.

If there's any good news here, it's that Villar still has a decent eye with a 7.1 BB% and 33.4% chase rate. Walks are an opportunity to run, and Villar typically shows just enough pop to keep opposing pitchers honest.

 

Jonathan Villar's Positive BABIP Regression?

Villar's .286 BABIP may not seem that low, but his career rate of .334 suggests that a lot more hits could start falling in. Villar hits very few flies with a 23.9 FB% this year and a 25.8% mark over his career, and his current 3.7 IFFB% would be a career-best. Unfortunately, he gives most of that up with a LD% that's consistently below league-average (18.6% this year, 19.9% career). As such, outstanding work on ground balls is how Villar keeps his BABIP up.

Villar has a lifetime BABIP of .267 on ground balls but is only hitting .200 on them so far this year. It isn't a contact quality issue as Villar's 88.8 mph average exit velocity on the ground is substantially better than last year's mark of 84.7. The shift isn't the problem either as Villar is only pulling 40% of his grounders. With Villar's legs, you'd think that positive regression would be a given.

Sadly, Villar's legs might be the root cause of the issue. He hasn't been a true speed merchant for a few years now, but last year's Statcast Sprint Speed of 27.3 ft./sec was still a little higher than average. This year, his Sprint Speed is down to 26.6 ft./sec. Villar is a perfect six-for-six on SB attempts and would be on pace for a 20-steal season over a full campaign, but it appears that he may no longer have the foot speed to beat out hits once taken for granted.

 

Jonathan Villar's Disappearing Pop

Villar has a career HR/FB of 16.1% and bested that mark with an 18.4% last season, allowing him to consistently crack double-digit homers despite his general aversion to fly balls. This season, his HR/FB is down to 7.4% as his average airborne exit velocity is down a full tick from last year (93.2 vs. 92.1 mph) while his rate of Brls/BBE fell off a cliff from 7.4% to 2.6%. His 109.5 mph max exit velocity isn't that bad, but there hasn't been much oomph in his bat.

 

The Verdict on Jonathan Villar

Baseball Savant's xStats suggest that Villar will be better moving forward but probably not by enough to justify fantasy interest. His xBA is .226 and his Statcast Sprint Speed isn't high enough to qualify for a mental adjustment. Similarly, his xSLG of .324 is only marginally better than his actual mark of .321. He doesn't hit many flies, lacks elite raw power, appears to be losing his speed, and has a swing-and-miss problem.

Still, he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS in most formats and appears to have an important role in an Angels lineup that still boasts two of the most dynamic players in today's game. He knows how to steal a base and is willing to run without elite wheels, and all of the negative peripherals above carry a small sample-size caveat. Maybe a change of scenery and an everyday role are just what he needs to get back on track.

Villar is only rostered in 12% of Yahoo! leagues, so you can probably pick him up for free if you have a bench spot available. You can plug him in at a variety of different positions and it's tough to find power-speed threats on waivers this late in the season. This author is going to call him a Champ, but bear in mind the irrational bias discussed in the intro.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel53 mins ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray57 mins ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele1 hour ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler3 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele3 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans3 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic4 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric4 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga4 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith4 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen4 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara4 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes4 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson4 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar5 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton5 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert5 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones5 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji5 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee5 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards5 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani5 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson5 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo5 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley5 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque5 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez6 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler6 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel6 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley6 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal7 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes7 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis8 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer9 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw9 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler9 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager10 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz10 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds12 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano13 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad14 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov14 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto14 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin15 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard15 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins15 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist15 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear15 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF