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Over the final two weeks leading up to Opening Day, our writers will be offering their most audacious projections for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. This is my second year contributing to this bold predictions series.
Last season, I hit on a couple of predictions (Jake Arrieta’s fall from grace, Christian Yelich’s breakout, Roberto Osuna cementing himself as a top reliever) and embarrassed myself with several others— won’t go into too much detail, you can find the piece here.
Here are this year’s predictions, all of which contain positive outlooks.
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Harris Yudin's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017
1. Jarrod Dyson leads MLB in stolen bases
Dyson has been limited to a platoon/bench role throughout his career in Kansas City, accumulating 156 steals over his last five years— the sixth-most in baseball over that span despite never seeing 300 at-bats in a single season. Now, the 32-year-old speedster will be given an opportunity to become more than a part-time player with the Mariners. Dyson’s .278/.340/.388 slash line from 2016 featured three career highs (min. 100 PA), and while he doesn’t possess any power, he has proven to be a capable hitter, even hitting .379 in 29 AB against southpaws. If he can secure a spot atop Seattle’s lineup and maintain respectable rate stats, Dyson could not only steal 50-60 bases, but also sniff 80 or 90 runs, as well. Of course, to lead the majors in swipes he will need to stay healthy and hit above .280, but that’s not so crazy as far as bold predictions go.
2. Yu Darvish finishes as SP1 in the American League
Last year, I wrote about Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg finishing, alongside Clayton Kershaw, among the top three starters in MLB. That… didn’t go so well. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to stop recognizing upside— especially in my bold predictions. Darvish is another less-than-durable pitcher with tremendous stuff, and this could be the year he fully develops into a truly elite arm. Darvish, 30, has made just 37 starts over the last three seasons combined, but boasts an impressive 2.94 FIP over that span— eighth-best mark among SP with at least 240 IP. If he can just stay healthy, Darvish has the stuff to compile 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.00 ERA.
I know this seems not-so-bold considering my colleague Nick Mariano predicted Darvish to be overall SP1 (!!!), but I have too much respect for Kershaw (and, incidentally, no respect whatsoever for Nick) to oust the three-time Cy Young Award winner from the top spot.
3. Joc Pederson hits 30 homers, finishes as a top-20 outfielder
All Pederson has done since coming into the league is hit bombs— 51 one of them to be exact, in just 886 AB. While the narrative seems to be that he hasn’t improved since coming into the league, that’s not even close to being true. The 24-year-old cut down on the massive 29.1 percent strikeout rate from his rookie year, his BABIP jumped up 34 points (still with room for growth) and his OBP shot up 84 points. His contact rate increased from 66.7 percent to 75.0 percent, and he made harder contact in the process. The biggest concern surrounding Pederson is his high HR/FB rate (23.1 percent), but he has the raw power and the uppercut swing to increase his home run output. He would’ve eclipsed 30 long balls last year if you prorate his numbers over a full season, so a healthy Pederson could actually sniff 40 if he can continue to cut down on his whiffs.
4. Carlos Correa OR Corey Seager finishes as the No. 2 overall player
This one is inspired by some Rotoballer readers who were taken aback by first, my claim that Seager could wind up as the second best player in fantasy this year, and second, the fact that I actually prefer Correa to Seager. It’s kind of a cop out, but whatever. The two young shortstops sit at No. 14 and No. 15 in my rankings, so this is not a HUGE reach. Still, I can’t imagine any fantasy owner is entrusting either player with a top-five pick on draft day.
Correa took a minor step back in his second season, hitting 20 HR with 13 SB and a .274/.361/.451 slash line. Still, he recorded a 37.2 percent hard hit rate and knocked in 96 runs. His home run total was a result of a low fly ball rate and a poor HR/FB ratio, but both of those numbers could very well creep back toward where they were in 2015. Correa has 30/20 potential, and could rack up 200 R+RBI hitting in the potent Astros lineup.
What Seager lacks in speed (five steals in 800 PA), he makes up for in power and on-base skills. Over those 800 PA, the 22-year-old has slashed .312/.374/.519 with 30 HR, 122 R and 89 RBI. His walk and strikeout rates (7.9 and 19.4 percent, respectively) are not so concerning for a 21-year-old rookie, and it’s more than feasible for him to improve upon those numbers in his sophomore campaign.
There’s definitely the opportunity for either Correa or Seager to be out-done by only Mike Trout, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see both of them in the top 10 overall at year’s end.
5. Andrew McCutchen hits over .300
I can’t tell if this is extremely bold or really not that bold at all. On one hand, the 30-year-old McCutchen has seen a progressive decline in his overall numbers over the last few years, and could simply be on a downward trajectory with eight full seasons under his belt. On the other hand, 30 is often still within a player’s prime, and Cutch has continued to post solid counting stats— he has eclipsed 20 home runs in each of the last six years. So his average has dropped from .314 in 2014 to .292 in 2015 and then down to a meager .256 last season, but it’s hard to imagine he went from an elite on-base option to a .250 hitter in just two years.
McCutchen’s OPS was 48 points higher in the second half of the year than in the first, and it sat well over .800 from August through the end of the regular season. Additionally, his walk rate jumped 3.1 points and his strikeout rate fell 7.8 points from the first half to the second. I don’t think I really believe McCutchen will break the .300 mark again, but to completely rule out a bounce back would be foolish.
6. Carlos Rodon strikes out more batters than Chris Sale
I think it’s only fair to preface this by saying that I do like Sale this year, and I don’t think the move to Fenway will really have any negative effects on his numbers. This is more about Rodon and the leap I expect him to take. The 24-year-old has a complete arsenal, headlined by a wipeout slider that was among the 10 best in baseball last year. In his sophomore campaign, Rodon improved his strikeout rate, lowered his walk rate and induced weaker contact despite a bump in his fly ball rate.
Yes, Sale struck out 65 more batters a year ago, but they posted remarkably similar K/9 rates. The biggest obstacle here is that Sale is an innings eater, with at least 200 in three of his last four years, so Rodon will have to at least come close to matching his workload to pull this off. If that were to happen — likely as a result of an injury to Sale — this prediction could come to fruition. Rodon has the stuff to one day lead the AL in strikeouts, so why can’t that be this year?
7. Mike Moustakas finishes as a top-10 third baseman
We know the top four— Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson, in whatever order — but it gets a little blurry after that. Third base is a deep position, and there are at least 15 guys who could solidify one of the remaining spots in the top 10. Moustakas’s 2016 season was cut short in May by a knee injury, but he was hitting at an impressive pace— seven homers, 13 RBI in just 104 at-bats with improved strikeout and walk rates. He displayed an enhanced ability to reach base in his last full season of 2015, and that should continue in 2017 if he can remain healthy. A stat line of 30 homers, 80 runs, 90 RBI and a .280 average is within reach for the 28-year-old, and those numbers should place him among the top 10 who are eligible at the hot corner.
8. Tommy Joseph finishes as a top-10 first basemen
Joseph is a popular sleeper pick for 2017, but I think he is capable of even exceeding those expectations. NFBC has him as the 24th 1B-eligible player off the board, so cracking the top 10 would certainly be a surprise. After battling injuries and inconsistency throughout the minors, Joseph made his major league debut in May, and proceeded to smack 21 homers over just 315 at-bats. His batted ball profile indicates his power isn’t likely to fade, and while he may never be a .280 hitter, his .267 BABIP should improve, and with it, his .257 average. The potential for 35-40 homers means Joseph could out-produce guys like Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt and Adrian Gonzalez.
9. Jurickson Profar manages 15/15 season
Honestly, there’s not a whole lot to back this up— Profar hit five homers with two steals and a .239 average across 272 AB last season. In fact, he’s never gone 15/15 at any level of his professional career. But Profar, who headlined what has become a very underwhelming top-10 prospect group from 2012, still possesses five-tool talent, and if he can remain healthy, the 24-year-old (yes, he only turned 24 in February) should receive solid playing time between left field and DH for the Rangers. He’s not on my mixed league radar (currently ranked No. 365), but Fangraphs says that rostering him would require blind hope, and that’s exactly what I am using to justify this prediction!
10. Dylan Bundy finishes as top-40 starter
About two sentences ago, I mentioned that the 2012 prospect class has largely been a disappointment. Right behind Profar on that list was Dylan Bundy— a crafty right-hander who was selected by the Orioles with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft. Bundy tossed 1.2 innings in the big leagues in 2012, but failed to reach the highest level again until 2016, as injuries limited his time on the field and stunted his development. Last season, Bundy made the jump to the bigs and proceeded to hurl 109.2 quality innings, racking up 104 strikeouts to go along with a 4.02 ERA. Nothing overly impressive, but he has flashed dominance at times, particularly in his one-hit shutout over seven innings against the Rangers on Aug. 2. Bundy managed a strong 10.5 percent swinging strike, and his batted ball profile improved from the first half to the second— other than his HR/FB rate, which should come back down as he continues to command the strike zone better. Bundy isn’t the safest mixed-league pick, but he has the potential to break out in 2017.
