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Five running back fantasy football draft sleepers and ADP value picks for 2024. Dave details potential RB sleepers and draft values for fantasy running backs.
We have officially entered August and that means we are just weeks away from the start of the 2024 NFL season. Soon we’ll be making waiver claims, contemplating trade offers, and sweating start/sit decisions. We are officially in grind mode.
During our draft preparation, we must take some time to identify potential sleepers. It’s especially important when it comes to running backs. There are sleeper running backs in the draft every year. If you can identify a few sleepers, it can mean the difference between a title run or an embarrassing last-place punishment. For our exercise today, we will be using ADP (average draft position) data from NFFC drafts.
Make sure to follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five running back sleepers/values to target in your 2024 fantasy football drafts.
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Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
NFFC ADP: 77.10 Overall, RB24
White was arguably the biggest winner of the offseason. The club opted to let longtime starter Josh Jacobs walk and only added Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube to the backfield. White enters the year as the Raiders’ clear lead back.
He also played quite well in limited action last year. White finished 14th in Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expected Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT) and second in Rush Percentage Over Expected (ROE%). He averaged over 114 scrimmage yards and 23 touches per game while filling in for Jacobs last year. That kind of volume would put White on the RB1 radar.
Gamers don’t have to spend a high pick on the third-year back. He's consistently going in the Round 6/7 range of drafts. There is some risk as he’s likely to be replaced if he struggles. However, we don’t have a large sample size indicating he will struggle, so this feels like a different situation when comparing it to someone like Mattison from last year. White might just be a good player. If he is, then he’s one of the best bargains available in drafts.
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
NFFC ADP: 98.14 Overall, RB31
Spears was snookered behind starting back Derrick Henry for most of his rookie season. Despite that, Spears finished ninth among all running backs in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) signature Elusive Rating and 22nd in Breakaway %.
Endzone, meet Tyjae Spears 🤝
First career TD for @tyjae22
📺: Watch #TENvsIND on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/z011MF4Byc
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 8, 2023
With the Titans allowing Henry to walk in free agency, Spears was poised to take over as the Titans' new RB1. That changed once the team signed former Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard to a three-year, $24 million deal in free agency. Pollard is coming off a down season where he averaged a career-low 4.0 yards per carry and saw many of his advanced metrics decline from his 2022 season. The two backs figure to split touches to start the year.
Spears is younger and appears to be the more explosive back. He also finished higher than Pollard in Elusive Rating, Next Gen Stats' Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT).
If Pollard’s 2023 struggles bleed over to 2024, Tennessee may hand the reins over to Spears completely. Even if that doesn’t happen, Spears should easily surpass his rookie numbers and is the preferred play from this backfield.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
NFFC ADP: 102.72 Overall, RB33
Robinson and free-agent addition Austin Ekeler are currently expected to split touches in Washington’s backfield. Despite this, Ekeler is the preferred option among gamers and is going nearly 18 picks earlier than Robinson. This is happening despite Robinson finishing higher than Ekeler in RYOE, MTF/ATT, Explosive Run %, PFF’s Rushing Grade, PFF’s Elusive Rating, and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT).
So to summarize, we are drafting a 29-year-old back, coming off the worst year of his career, whose metrics all signal he’s in decline, over a 25-year-old back coming off his best season as a professional? What are we doing here?
Ekeler traditionally has been a great pass-catching back, but he wasn’t better than Robinson in that area last year, either.
Ekeler:
- 8.5 yards per reception
- 5.9 yards per target
- 1.40 yards per route run (YPRR)
- 1 receiving touchdown
Robinson:
- 10.2 yards per reception
- 8.6 yards per target
- 1.89 YPRR
- 4 receiving touchdowns
No, this does not suggest Robinson is going to morph into an elite pass-catching back. That’s just not his skill set. But it does mean these backs might not be that different in this area in terms of potential fantasy production.
There is no good reason to draft Ekeler over Robinson other than name value. Robinson is not a perfect back, but he’s not terrible, either. Robinson is Washington’s best option at the moment. He could also see a boost in efficiency playing alongside dual-threat rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Fresh off a PPR RB21 finish, Robinson should be considered the preferred pick from this backfield. He’s a fine flex play or bench depth option with room for more if he can firmly establish himself as the lead back in this offense.
Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers
NFFC ADP Data Below
The Chargers’ new head coach, Jim Harbaugh, prefers a strong running game, and his hiring brought speculation the offense would be heading in that direction. This was all but confirmed when Harbaugh hired former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman to run the offense in Los Angeles. Roman previously worked under Harbaugh while the latter was head coach of the San Francisco 49ers from 2011-2014. Here are the run rates for those 49ers teams and where they ranked in the league:
- 2011- 49.02%, 3rd
- 2012- 51.51%, 3rd
- 2013- 52.23%, 2nd
- 2014- 46.58%, 7th
Based on Harbaugh and Roman’s previous work together, there will be plenty of rushing opportunities in this offense.
Edwards is the presumed RB1 as the new regime handpicked him and has mentioned how they see him as a true three-down workhorse. However, Edwards has never operated in this capacity before, and he's never handled more than 210 touches in a season. Dobbins was always a hyper-efficient player with the Ravens but has major durability concerns while Vidal is a sixth-round rookie.
There are question marks surrounding all of these backs, but they can each thrive if they are given RB1 volume. Whoever emerges as the lead back is the player fantasy gamers need to target. Luckily, none are expensive in NFFC drafts:
Edwards ADP: 121.54 Overall, RB4
Dobbins ADP: 153rd Overall, RB49
Vidal ADP: 184.19 Overall, RB57
Monitor any news on this backfield throughout training camp and the run-up to the season, and be ready to pull the trigger on whoever prevails as the RB1.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
NFFC ADP: 166th Overall, RB52
McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as its 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in MTF/ATT. There is a lot to like about the second-year back heading into the 2024 season.
Undrafted rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin scores his first career touchdown#Broncos 7#Commanders 0pic.twitter.com/2p1w90ZTxs
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) September 17, 2023
Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues. He is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits. Draft him and reap the rewards.
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