What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 121. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 166-82).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 121.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Alexander Volkanovski vs Shane Young

Shane Young has accepted this fight as a late notice replacement for Alexander Volkanovski. While I don’t necessarily want to say this is a win set in stone, it will be extremely difficult for Young to pull off the upset. He does come with some power and decent submissions, but Volkanovski has looked elite in his pair of UFC fights. He is a powerful grappler that mixes in efficient striking. He is also a cardio machine. Young may gas in this fight due to taking it on short notice, or he may not even reach the point where he can gas. Volkanovski is as big of a lock as there will be on this card.

Alexander Volkanovski, TKO, 1st Round

 

Elias Theodorou vs Daniel Kelly

Truth be told, this is as difficult of a fight to pick as there is on the card. Logic sides with Elias Theodorou, as he is seemingly the more athletic and younger fighter. He is also a cardio machine, who can fight for well more than three rounds. With that being said, Daniel Kelly continues to pull off upsets in the UFC. Kelly comes with the slightly more accurate striking, while featuring better striking defense. He also comes with an elite ability to take punishment. The major difference in this fight I feel will be Kelly’s Judo. He possesses elite Judo throws, and Theodorou has struggled to stop takedowns at times throughout his career. While I feel Theodorou will not have too much trouble getting back to his feet, the takedowns will be enough to sway the judge’s this weekend.

Daniel Kelly via Unanimous Decision

 

Jake Matthews vs Bojan Velickovic

Jake Matthews is one of the most frustrating fighters in the UFC. He was a top prospect, but has lost three of his last five fights, including one against Andrew Holbrook. With that being said, he has beaten Johnny Case, who is another UFC prospect. Bojan Velickovic has also seen a mixed bag result in the UFC, most recently losing to Darren Till. Overall, I feel Matthews has the advantage in this fight. He has a significantly higher ceiling, but he rarely seems to reach that ceiling. Velickovic seems to be the more consistent fighter of the duo. Still, I feel Matthews will have the advantage in both striking and grappling, making him the safer pick.

Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision

 

Tim Means vs Belal Muhammad

This fight quietly has Fight of the Night potential. Both men are active on the feet. Neither one is scared of getting into a firefight, as well. Overall, Tim Means likely has the striking advantage because of his variety. With that being said, Belal Muhammad has the grappling advantage with his wrestling. If Muhammad can get this fight to the ground, it will be his to lose. I do not fully believe he will be able to do that, though. Keep in mind, Muhammad still comes with solid standup and has the potential to win on the feet, but Means is the more accurate and powerful striker with better striking defense. As long as this fight plays out on the feet, which is should, Means has the slight advantage.

Tim Means, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Bec Rawlings vs Jessica-Rose Clark

It is a bit shocking this fight is so high on the card, but Bec Rawlings is from Australia. She has lost five of her last eight fights. She gets a good matchup against Jessica-Rose Clark, who enters this game with only one win in her last three fights. That win was only a split decision. Rawlings is an active striker, who comes with solid submissions. Clark has also displaying finishing potential, but she has not finished a fight since 2014. This is somewhat of a difficult fight to predict, but I’m siding with the hometown woman in this one.

Bec Rawlings via Unanimous Deicison

 

Fabricio Werdum vs Marcin Tybura

There is nothing that I would love more than Marcin Tybura quickly knocking Fabricio Werdum out of title contention. I do not believe it will be that easy, though. Werdum has only ever truly lost against elite level competition, and I do not feel that Tybura is quite on his level. Werdum featuring relentless takedowns and has elite submissions. Tybura will be looking to keep this fight standing, which he has found ways to do through his UFC fights. If this fight stays standing, I feel it is somewhat of a 50/50 matchup. Werdum will likely only need to turn this fight into a grappling match one time to find the win, though. In five rounds, I expect him to be able to get that done.

Fabricio Werdum, Submission, 2nd Round