Welcome to the first leg of the 2025 FedEx Cup Playoffs, where the Top-70 players from the regular season will compete amid the blistering heat at TPC Southwind in Memphis for the St. Jude Championship. There is no cut line and every shot counts, as all are vying to punch their ticket to the BMW Championship next week.
In this article, I'll break down my Top 10 Power Rankings for players based on recent form and specific player profiles that I believe are the best data-driven fits for TPC Southwind. With data that goes back a number of years, we should be able to identify specific skill sets that have proven successful, and our rankings will highlight the names you need to watch that I believe are poised to win.
Let’s get right into my Top 10 Power Rankings for the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
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No. 10 - Chris Gotterup
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Let's have some fun. This may be a reach, but how do you ignore the player who is #1 in the field in Strokes Gained: OTT and Greens in Regulation over the past 24 rounds.
- Gotterup has gained an astronomical +48.8 strokes on the field in his last five tournaments played. He's simply on fire.
- The Ryder Cup seems like a real possibility for the young stud who's looking to further cement his case in Memphis.
No. 9 - Sepp Straka
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Inconsistent form to end the season, but it has been a career year for Straka, who has two PGA TOUR wins in 2025.
- What he lacks in power, he makes up for with precision. Straka is one of the best iron players in the field, and TPC Southwind is a modest 7,200 yards and features a ton of water, playing into the hands of highly accurate ballstrikers.
- Runner-up at this tournament in 2022, where Straka came up just short in a playoff when Will Zalatoris captured his first victory.
We're headed to a playoff at TPC Southwind.
Will Zalatoris (-145) vs. Sepp Straka (+110) for the FedEx St. Jude Championship 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pKEVavDDBd
— Golfbet (@Golfbet) August 14, 2022
No. 8 - Hideki Matsuyama
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Hideki Matsuyama won the 2024 FedEx St. Jude season, finishing with a winning score is -17 under par.
- His iron play is trending in the right direction. Matsuyama recently gained +8.5 strokes on Approach at the Rocket Classic and +6.7 at the U.S. Open.
- Incredible course history, but I have concerns off the tee. Matsuyama ranks 61st in the field of 70 players in SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds, a troubling statistic given the number of water hazards off the tee at TPC Southwind.
No. 7 - Russell Henley
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Henley is the prototypical accurate player that you can rely on to hit fairways at TPC Southwind. He ranks Top-10 in Driving Accuracy and Distance From Edge of Fairway when he misses.
- Limited number of starts this summer, but he's quietly playing really well. Henley is working on four consecutive Top-10 finishes.
- Henley often excels on the Bermudagrass greens, and he's got the short game scramble when he finds trouble. I really like his skill set for this setup, and despite nothing incredible course history-wise, I think he can pop this week and should present odds board value.
No. 6 - Justin Thomas
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Thomas has routinely played well amid the heat in Memphis during the summer. He won this event in 2020 and has gained strokes on the field in each of his last five starts at the FedEx St. Jude.
- He's got to do a better job and avoiding bogey, but Thomas is one of the top birdie-makers in the field over the past 50 rounds. He can go low anywhere, anytime.
- His best attribute this season has surprisingly been his putter. I worry about that here because he has never quite been able to figure out these tricky greens at TPC Southwind. Even when he won this tournament in 2020, he lost strokes putting for the week. The last time he won here, he became world #1 for the first time.
Congratulations to Justin Thomas '11 on winning the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational! Justin has also been recognized as the #1 ranked player by the Official World Golf Ranking. #WeAreStX pic.twitter.com/uIN3G7Go0G
— Saint Xavier High School (@stxtigers) August 3, 2020
No. 5 - Tommy Fleetwood
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Still in search of that elusive first victory, Fleetwood has long been ready to break through, and Southwind presents an ideal setup for his skills and thought process.
- Fleetwood has a great track record at this course. 4th place in 2019 and T3 in 2023.
- I thought it was finally going to happen at TPC River Highlands a few weeks ago. Fleetwood remains upbeat and dedicated, ready to potentially make it all worth the wait at another TPC golf course, this time at Southwind.
No. 4 - Matt Fitzpatrick
- For the first time this season, I have Matt Fitzpatrick surprising Tommy Fleetwood as the player from England with the top win equity.
- Fitzpatrick made a Sunday charge up the leaderboard last week at the Wyndham Championship, and his form continues to build momentum late in the season.
- 2nd best putter in the field in terms of strokes gained over the past 24 rounds. Pair that with his steadily improving ballstrikin,g and he's going to be tough to beat in Memphis.
No. 3 - Viktor Hovland
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Potentially a surprise at No. 3 in my rankings, but I lean heavily into Ballstriking and recent form at TPC Southwind. Hovland checks both boxes.
- He's improved his finish position in each of his last five starts at this tournament, culminating in a T2 last season. The only way to beat that result is to win in 2025!
- The greens tend to really firm up in the summer heat at TPC Southwind, and Hovland hits high and soft approach shots that make him the ideal player fit for this course. He will win this tournament at some point during his career. Plus, how can you not root for this guy...
Viktor Hovland discusses how he spends his money…
Protect this man at all costs 😅pic.twitter.com/Xf832tlAl6
— Covers (@Covers) July 16, 2025
No. 2 - Xander Schauffele
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After an incredible year in 2024, it's shocking that Xander Schauffele doesn't have a single Top-5 finish in 2025. I believe he'll change that narrative this week in Memphis.
- Schaffele has recaptured his elite iron play. He's gained a minimum of 3+ strokes on Approach in four of his last five starts, often times a predictor of his success and win potential.
- Nearly won this event in 2024, ultimately finishing T2. He gained +10.78 strokes on the field last season, which he can draw on for confidence as he's still in search of some magic to end his year on a strong note heading into the FedEx Cup Finals.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
- There's not much I can say here that you don't already know. He's the best player in the world, and the gap is widening.
- His best finish at TPC Southwind is a 4th place in 2024. Maybe it provides a glimmer of hope to the field, but if Scheffler brings his A or B game, it may be another rout to victory.
- #1 ranked player in Ballstriking, Approach, and bogey avoidance. As long as nothing crazy happens with the golf course setup, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Scheffler is not a part of the story late on Sunday afternoon.
🚨🤑⛳️ #BIG MONEY — Scottie Scheffler is set to collect $18M in bonus money this Sunday. As the top FedEx cup points earner following The Wyndham Championship, he will earn $10M, plus an additional $8M for top spot in the Comcast Business Top 10 rankings. @SchefflerFans pic.twitter.com/C2pph7Jx6w
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) August 2, 2025
Enjoy the FedEx St. Jude Championship, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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