Welcome to the California swing! Located along the majestic oceanside cliffs of La Jolla, Torrey Pines will once again host the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open. The field took a bit of a hit when the two highest-ranked players withdrew (Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa), but several top players have made the voyage in hopes of winning on one of the most iconic public golf courses in the United States.
The event kicks off a day early, on Wednesday this week, to avoid conflict with the NFL playoffs. The first two days will also once again be played on both the North and South courses at Torrey Pines, which have drastically different characteristics. For the purpose of this article, we'll draw the data and analysis from the South course that is in play for three of the four days.
I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players' incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most here. Let's dig into my Top-10 Power Rankings for the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open.
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No. 10 - Max Homa
- No. 1 player in the field in strokes gained total in California over the last five years. Willing to overlook some recent shortcomings in form for the "home-game" narrative.
- Won this event in 2023 and came back last year to finish T13. Performs his best OTT on long golf courses.
- Homa has been really struggling with his putter, but his baseline has improved substantially on West Coast POA.
🚨👀✍🏻 #NEW: Max Homa is officially on the Cobra website with a metal woods and irons deal. Also appears to be set to wear a Cobra hat. pic.twitter.com/gP0pnSMMdN
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) January 1, 2025
No. 9 - Max Greyserman
- Greyserman is the hottest putter in the field. I have some concerns that the troublesome POA could be frustrating for him.
- He's been terrific at avoiding bogey, ranking No. 1 in bogey avoidance over the last 40 rounds. That will be key at the South Course.
- Needs to continue to take advantage of his peaking form. Four Top-7 finishes in his last five starts!
No. 8 - Jason Day
- I'm always a sucker for Jason Day at the Farmers. He's No. 1 in strokes gained total at Torrey Pines in the field.
- T3 finish last week at The Amex despite losing -1.5 strokes putting at the Stadium Course. His ball-striking was elite.
- He's a trustworthy putter on POA, and he's made some gains with his Driving Distance, which typically gets rewarded at Torrey Pines.
Jason Day CHIPS IN from the rough to reach T-3! 🎯
📺 Golf Channel | @TheAmexGolf pic.twitter.com/WWGapSWLGt
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 19, 2025
No. 7 - Maverick McNealy
- Solid blend of distance and accuracy OTT has allowed him to gain strokes in five consecutive starts.
- He possesses great upside when he putts well. He gained +3.6 putting at the RSM (won) and +3.9 at the 3M Open (3rd).
- He's gained at least three strokes putting in three of his last five starts at Torrey Pines. He's comfortable on the West Coast greens.
No. 6 - Tony Finau
- Typically dominates at the Farmers. T6, T9, CUT, T2, and T6 in his last five starts here.
- He has been routinely gaining strokes ARG, which bodes well given the fact that GIR is generally down from the PGA Tour average at this tournament.
- I continue to be bearish on Finau. I believe the injury reprogrammed his offseason, and there is still some rust, which showed last week as he missed the cut at the Amex.
No. 5 - Keegan Bradley
- Bradley played great at both Hawaii events and clearly has a ton of motivation to play well this season. You can tell he spent his offseason hard at work.
- Second place finish at this event in 2023.
- He's gained +12.3 strokes on approach at the Farmers since 2019. This tournament demands elite long iron play from 175-225, and Bradley has been particularly good from that range.
No. 4 - Will Zalatoris
- A win feels imminent, and this is an ideal course fit for Zalatoris.
- Second place finish at the 2022 Farmers, where he gained a ridiculous +7.9 strokes on approach.
- I'm encouraged that he's actually gained strokes, putting in three of the last four years here. You can sense the determination to win if he can do that again in 2025.
Will Zalatoris is in a good headspace after putting on 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason. pic.twitter.com/3TpPp5jdIN
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 3, 2025
No. 3 - Sungjae Im
There's a thought process in golf handicapping where sometimes you blindly take the high-end talent that burns everyone who played them the week prior. Sungjae Im is the perfect application of that narrative this week for the Farmers Insurance Open. Im missed the cut last week badly and also failed to play the weekend at the 2024 Farmers. That said, he finished fourth and sixth in 2023 and 2022.
The stats would tell you the Sungjae is just no longer a great wedge player, an area that reared its ugly head last week in the desert of La Quinta. The area which he excels at is with a long iron in hand. He's still one of the best in the game from 200+ yards, and no course asks a player to consistently hit the same 200-yard approach shot over and over again, quite like Torrey Pines.
It's a great bounce-back opportunity for Im, and I can't envision him disappointing two weeks in a row. I prefer him in tougher scoring conditions versus a birdie-fest, and when I look at comparable courses in my stat model, he ranked Top three.
No. 2 - Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama has made a living on golf courses that require long-iron precision which is exactly why he's one of the favorites to win the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open. He's a top-five player in the field in strokes gained approach over the last 36 rounds, which comes as a surprise to nobody who has seen Hideki compress a golf ball.
One area that he's always been extremely underrated is his ability to scramble around the greens. The Director of agronomy at Torrey Pines said this is the driest the course has ever been heading into the week, which I believe will lead to firmer, more difficult greens to hold on approach shots. Thus, ARG games inherently become more important. Matsuyama ranks No. 3 in SG: ARG over the last 50 rounds.
His recent win a few weeks ago at the Sentry was a testament to his current form and the narrative that Matsuyama always plays quality golf at the beginning of the season. Clearly, he enjoys the West Coast, and if the latest news is correct, he may get the chance to come back to Torrey Pines in a few weeks to defend his Genesis Invitational crown, as the event is rumored to be moved to La Jolla.
No. 1 - Ludvig Aberg
Two weeks ago, I had the opportunity to attend the first TGL match. Sim golf aside, there was something different about watching Ludvig Aberg swing a golf club. The entire building was enamored at how effortlessly smooth and powerful it looked. It was so repeatable that it made you wonder how it could ever fail. Heck, even Tiger Woods stopped to watch.
Well, Torrey Pines is about as homogenous and repeatable as any golf course on the planet. Grab a six-iron...rinse...repeat. I'd frankly be shocked if Aberg doesn't end his career with multiple wins at Torrey, the course fit is just that good in my opinion.
Aberg finished T9 in his very first appearance at the Farmers Insurance Open last season. He's been a terrific putter on POA grass in his young carry, and his ability to carry the ball in the air beyond 300 yards is one of the main questions that needs to be answered. Ludvig has all the answers to the test, and it's time for him to cement his stardom and become more of a household name in the year 2025
Aura studying Aura 🌟 pic.twitter.com/m4imvOCMVg
— Joe I (@TourPicks) January 8, 2025
Enjoy The Farmers Insurance Open, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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