RADIO
On Thursday night, I went to the Titans-Steelers game in person and was uber excited to watch a ton of different players. I was excited as always to see my Steelers play, but also players on the Titans side like Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, Marcus Mariota, and of course, Corey Davis.
I was also very intrigued by the USC matchup of Adoree Jackson on Juju Smith-Schuster and how the Steelers secondary looks without Joe Haden. Needless to say, the game did not disappoint me, especially as a Steelers fan. A few rows down from where I was sitting, I overheard one guy shout “GIVE ME SOME JUJU FANTASY POINTS!” Couldn't agree more buddy...
With that being said, here is this week’s consistency charts at each position.
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Quarterbacks
I would like to highlight one person on this list and illuminate his production in a dynasty setting. Derek Carr is not a top-five dynasty quarterback. In fact, the only thing keeping him inside the top-10 is his age and the weapons around him. However, despite having receivers like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, and Jared Cook and a great offensive line, Carr is on pace for less than 3700 passing yards. I know he missed a game with an injury, but even if he had played that week, he is still on pace for only 3900 yards over a 16-game stretch. Similarly, he is also on pace for only 25 touchdowns, but also 13 interceptions.
2017 will be his fourth straight season with less than 4,000 passing yards and his touchdowns have dropped in each of the past three years. In fact, his statistics since his breakout 2015 campaign have not improved. On a weekly basis, Carr is not consistent as well, which makes him hard to rely upon as a weekly QB1, especially given his dynasty price. This season, Carr has been one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks based on standard deviation and has a floor lower than players like Blake Bortles, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger (though his ceiling is higher than all three). In 2016, his consistency numbers are very similar to this season’s, with a 7.71 standard deviation (9.52 floor and 24.93 ceiling). He is a very matchup-dependent QB and should be seen as more of a high-QB2 as a spot start in great matchups than a weekly starter.
Running Backs
Ever since this past Sunday, I have seen a lot of Rex Burkhead love on Twitter. Sure, he had a great game and was heavily utilized and his snap percentage has increased over the last few weeks. Thank goodness, we finally have our Patriots running back, right? Not so fast. We have played this narrative before with a Pats back, first with Mike Gillislee, then with Dion Lewis, and now Burkhead. However, everyone has been neglecting the only consistent back on that team, who has been quietly and consistently producing on a weekly basis: James White.
As the RB19 on the season in PPR, White has only one game below 8.5 fantasy points and only three games under 10 points. Let me rephrase that: James White has scored double digit fantasy points in six of his nine games. Statistically, he has a higher floor than Chris Thompson, Melvin Gordon, LeSean McCoy, Demarco Murray, and Jordan Howard. The only negative is his ceiling, which is capped due to his low touchdown production. However, for fantasy purposes, White has been the model of consistency at the running back position in a backfield that people believe is impossible to predict. For many teams, White is a solid flex play, given where owners where able to draft him or even add him from the waiver wire.
Wide Receivers
Can we stop with the Michael Thomas hate? I get it, he only has two touchdowns on the year, with the last one coming in Week 4 at the beginning of October. But man, I have never seen a fantasy WR1 be called a disappointment more than Thomas has this season. Thomas is currently the WR8 in PPR and has only scored less than double digit points in only two weeks this year. In fact, he has scored over 20 points in three of his nine games this season and hasn’t scored less than points over the past four weeks.
In terms of consistency, Thomas is as consistent as it gets at the wide receiver position. Among the top-12, Thomas ranks third in consistency behind Jarvis Landry and Julio Jones. With a floor of 9.57, Thomas is a safer play than Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, and AJ Green. His ceiling may not be as high, but imagine if he found the endzone. If Thomas is consistenly scoring 14-18 points per week, add one trip to the endzone and you have an elite fantasy option at the wide receiver position.
Tight Ends
I think we need to start appreciating what Delanie Walker is able to do for fantasy teams week-to-week. In terms of standard deviation, Walker is the second most consistent tight end in fantasy, behind only Zach Ertz. Including the Thursday night game versus the Steelers, Walker has now posted three straight weeks over 12 fantasy points. In fact, Walker has been extremely consistent despite having zero touchdowns on the season. Similar to the case for Thomas, if Walker is consistently scoring 8-12 fantasy points per week and then add a touchdown to those numbers. An already weekly top-10 tight end now turns into a top-5 option at the position. With Mariota coming back to form and healthy on top of a very favorable fantasy playoff schedule ahead of him, Walker may be a league winner for some teams buying him on the cheap before trade deadlines.
Floor Plays
Ceiling Plays
