Rest-of-Season Starting Pitcher Rankings (Midseason Update)

The Midsummer Classic has come and gone, leaving us without baseball for what seems like the longest week of the calendar year. Before the second half of the 2019 MLB season gets underway, the RotoBaller staff has updated our fantasy baseball rankings for the remainder of the year. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings don't stop mattering once your draft is over.

Starting pitchers have been the bane of fantasy owners' existence this year. Whether you side with Justin Verlander or not, it's obvious that offense as a whole, especially home runs, are up. That's been bad news for many SP that were drafted in the first few rounds. If you are still in the thick of the race in your mixed roto league, it's critical to find the right pitchers to trust so your ratios don't tank.

Throw those preseason ADPs out along with any preconceived notion of how these players were going to perform - we've taken into account injuries, team context, Statcast metrics, and gameplay observations in order to provide you with the most current rankings possible. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the very latest rankings which are continually updated. Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 SP rest-of-season rankings for July.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

• Fantasy baseball injury reports
• Fantasy baseball trade analyzer
• Daily MLB starting lineups for fantasy baseball
• Fantasy baseball BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
• Fantasy baseball PvB matchups data (Pitcher vs. Batter)
• Who should I start? Fantasy baseball player comparisons
• Fantasy baseball closer depth charts, bullpens, saves
• Fantasy Baseball live scoreboard, daily leaderboards

 

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (July)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Ranking	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Pierre	Bill
1	1	Max Scherzer	SP	5	11	4
2	1	Chris Sale	SP	8	15	7
3	1	Justin Verlander	SP	7	18	6
4	2	Gerrit Cole	SP	12	12	11
5	2	Jacob deGrom	SP	13	26	12
6	2	Trevor Bauer	SP	32	20	32
7	2	Luis Castillo	SP	36	31	40
8	2	Jose Berrios	SP	42	23	45
9	2	Clayton Kershaw	SP	41	36	36
10	2	Zack Greinke	SP	23	60	37
11	2	Blake Snell	SP	30	58	35
12	3	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	35	61	38
13	3	Walker Buehler	SP	33	66	39
14	3	Stephen Strasburg	SP	44	59	49
15	3	Aaron Nola	SP	59	35	64
16	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	77	49	52
17	3	Charlie Morton	SP	55	77	58
18	3	Noah Syndergaard	SP	58	75	62
19	4	David Price	SP	72	81	75
20	4	James Paxton	SP	70	86	74
21	4	Lucas Giolito	SP	78	117	82
22	4	Mike Clevinger	SP	87	108	91
23	4	Shane Bieber	SP	95	99	98
24	4	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	118	64	120
25	4	German Marquez	SP	117	97	101
26	4	Mike Minor	SP	105	93	118
27	4	Madison Bumgarner	SP	102	110	107
28	4	Matthew Boyd	SP	104	118	110
29	5	Mike Soroka	SP	107	138	89
30	5	Jack Flaherty	SP	144	95	135
31	5	Robbie Ray	SP	147	84	149
32	5	Jake Odorizzi	SP	129	135	124
33	5	Kenta Maeda	SP	130	131	138
34	5	Cole Hamels	SP	139	125	140
35	5	Chris Paddack	SP	145	143	132
36	5	Zack Wheeler	SP	138	160	139
37	5	Caleb Smith	SP	164	114	159
38	5	Griffin Canning	SP	150	165	151
39	5	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	186	120	188
40	6	Kyle Gibson	SP	154	197	157
41	6	Yu Darvish	SP	148	219	143
42	6	Jose Quintana	SP	182	164	183
43	6	Liam Hendriks	SP	196	#N/A	176
44	6	Yonny Chirinos	SP	222	123	217
45	6	Max Fried	SP	195	183	187
46	6	J.A. Happ	SP	214	137	214
47	6	Domingo German	SP	215	153	199
48	6	Brandon Woodruff	SP	113	322	133
49	6	Nick Pivetta	SP	177	236	179
50	6	Sonny Gray	SP	209	194	206
51	6	Tyler Glasnow	SP	292	190	136
52	6	Andrew Heaney	SP	133	344	156
53	6	Carlos Carrasco	SP	162	301	173
54	6	Kyle Hendricks	SP	233	186	239
55	6	Joey Lucchesi	SP	263	180	237
56	7	Steven Matz	SP	259	179	244
57	7	Joe Musgrove	SP	270	140	276
58	7	Chris Archer	SP	271	154	275
59	7	Jon Gray	SP	278	145	277
60	7	Rick Porcello	SP	260	172	269
61	7	Trevor Williams	SP	250	188	267
62	7	Jon Lester	SP	243	211	254
63	7	Miles Mikolas	SP	268	177	268
64	7	Rich Hill	SP	171	379	172
65	7	Jameson Taillon	SP	253	212	262
66	7	John Gant	SP	211	222	300
67	7	Jake Arrieta	SP	274	198	278
68	8	Anibal Sanchez	SP	227	320	228
69	8	Corey Kluber	SP	247	284	245
70	8	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	257	271	#N/A
71	8	Lance Lynn	SP	217	353	225
72	8	Zac Gallen	SP	275	245	281
73	8	Tyler Mahle	SP	277	258	270
74	8	Dallas Keuchel	SP	295	250	263
75	8	Zach Plesac	SP	279	252	260
76	8	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	294	256	266
77	9	Spencer Turnbull	SP	378	213	234
78	9	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	374	148	307
79	9	Marco Gonzales	SP	283	265	282
80	9	Trevor Richards	SP	281	275	279
81	9	Pablo Lopez	SP	266	317	258
82	9	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	287	274	284
83	9	Sean Newcomb	SP	#N/A	282	#N/A
84	9	Ross Stripling	SP	272	251	325
85	9	Jesus Luzardo	SP	249	356	248
86	9	Julio Teheran	SP	246	361	257
87	10	Michael Pineda	SP	290	287	289
88	10	Marcus Stroman	SP	276	306	287
89	10	Merrill Kelly	SP	256	342	273
90	10	Framber Valdez	SP	350	270	256
91	10	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	269	374	243
92	10	Carlos Martinez	SP/RP	228	308	362
93	10	Luis Severino	SP	262	368	272
94	10	Jordan Lyles	SP	280	336	288
95	10	Jason Vargas	SP	315	354	293
96	10	Adrian Sampson	SP/RP	291	330	291
97	10	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	356	199	359
98	10	Scott Oberg	SP	293	319	308
99	10	Julio Urias	SP	321	277	327
100	10	Wade Miley	SP	232	480	235
101	10	Tommy Milone	SP	317	370	323
102	11	Sandy Alcantara	SP	324	338	301
103	11	Michael Wacha	SP	331	304	338
104	11	Martin Perez	SP	248	477	265
105	11	Jeff Samardzija	SP	329	326	337
106	11	Aaron Sanchez	SP	322	348	334
107	11	Brad Keller	SP	334	333	340
108	11	Freddy Peralta	SP	337	329	342
109	11	Jalen Beeks	SP	379	288	349
110	11	Peter Lambert	SP	346	#N/A	333
111	11	Logan Allen	SP	338	#N/A	343
112	11	Zach Eflin	SP	300	428	299
113	11	Luke Weaver	SP	402	229	411
114	11	Ian Kennedy	SP	252	446	344
115	11	Trent Thornton	SP	339	358	345
116	11	Zach Davies	SP	288	481	285
117	11	Eric Lauer	SP	326	340	389
118	11	Vince Velasquez	SP	394	260	402
119	11	Dylan Bundy	SP	282	488	286
120	11	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	319	412	326
121	12	Jimmy Nelson	SP	415	360	283
122	12	Felix Pena	RP/SP	320	445	310
123	12	Mitch Keller	SP	351	406	321
124	12	Jordan Yamamoto	SP	388	331	366
125	12	CC Sabathia	SP	390	312	395
126	12	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	306	511	290
127	12	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	372	403	339
128	12	John Means	SP/RP	367	#N/A	376
129	12	Elieser Hernandez	SP/RP	369	#N/A	378
130	12	Chris Bassitt	SP	333	485	314
131	12	Chase Anderson	SP	393	352	401
132	12	Adam Conley	SP/RP	385	#N/A	381
133	12	Dereck Rodriguez	SP	396	351	405
134	12	Josh James	SP	330	411	414
135	12	Collin McHugh	SP	398	371	394
136	12	Mike Fiers	SP	335	501	329
137	13	Tanner Roark	SP	325	519	331
138	13	Danny Duffy	SP	399	370	408
139	13	Dylan Cease	SP	384	#N/A	404
140	13	Cal Quantrill	SP	418	362	425
141	13	Alex Wood	SP	395	409	403
142	13	Kevin Gausman	SP	410	404	397
143	13	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	411	380	421
144	13	Jakob Junis	SP	392	420	400
145	13	Robert Stephenson	SP	400	#N/A	409
146	13	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	403	#N/A	412
147	13	Cole Irvin	SP	#N/A	408	#N/A
148	13	Felix Hernandez	SP	404	#N/A	415
149	13	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	420	384	427
150	13	Adam Wainwright	SP	405	#N/A	416
151	13	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	426	378	429
152	13	Homer Bailey	SP	407	#N/A	419
153	13	Dinelson Lamet	SP	408	#N/A	420
154	13	Sean Manaea	SP	409	#N/A	424
155	13	Drew Pomeranz	SP	406	427	417
156	13	Jose Suarez	SP	511	#N/A	324
157	13	Derek Holland	SP	416	#N/A	422
158	14	Corbin Martin	SP	#N/A	419	#N/A
159	14	Jon Duplantier	SP	419	424	426
160	14	Wade LeBlanc	SP	421	#N/A	428
161	14	Kyle Freeland	SP	513	392	380
162	14	Trevor Cahill	SP	387	505	393
163	14	Amir Garrett	SP	382	517	390
164	14	Touki Toussaint	SP	413	500	391
165	14	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	412	515	396
166	14	Clay Buchholz	SP	478	#N/A	406
167	14	Sam Gaviglio	SP/RP	480	#N/A	407
168	14	Gio Gonzalez	SP	417	497	423
169	14	Forrest Whitley	SP	#N/A	484	413
170	14	Nick Margevicius	SP	520	355	495
171	14	Wily Peralta	SP/RP	#N/A	#N/A	457
172	14	Jose Urena	SP	519	#N/A	418
173	14	Zack Godley	SP	#N/A	492	#N/A
174	14	Drew Smyly	SP	#N/A	506	#N/A
175	14	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	#N/A	#N/A	525
176	14	Jaime Barria	SP	526	502	557
177	14	Justus Sheffield	SP	#N/A	#N/A	531
178	14	Ivan Nova	SP	#N/A	#N/A	533
179	14	Dylan Floro	SP/RP	#N/A	#N/A	541
180	14	Luiz Gohara	SP	#N/A	#N/A	543
181	14	Kyle Wright	SP	#N/A	#N/A	547
182	14	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	#N/A	#N/A	551
183	14	Alex Cobb	SP	#N/A	#N/A	554
184	14	A.J. Puk	SP	#N/A	#N/A	572

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

After pitching to an uncharacteristically high 4.12 ERA in the first month, Mad Max has been lights out ever since. We should be grateful that he's sitting out the All-Star game in order to stay fresh for the stretch run. He's locked in as the top fantasy SP for the rest of this year and that likely won't change.

Roller coaster enthusiasts, masochists, diehard Red Sox fans convinced the team is going to turn it around any day now and bring anotha' ring home. Those are the people enjoying their draft-day shares of Chris Sale at an average price tag of a first-round pick. His K-rate is still strong at 34.5% but his swing-and-miss rate has fluctuated wildly from month to month, as has his ERA.

After a horrible April, Sale posted a 2.82 ERA in May and 2.73 in June. Then he ruined it all by giving up five earned runs in each of his last two starts before the break. If you own Sale or bought low on him after the panic started, hold tight and enjoy the strikeouts, if nothing else.

Tier Two

Bauer isn't pitching to last year's level but I'm not discounting improvement in the second half. His 38.2% hard-hit rate has jumped back to 2017 levels, nine points higher than last year. That has led to an ERA that's a run and a half higher than last year too. I wouldn't be surprised if the recent trade rumors spark a resurgence, whether they come to fruition or not. A move to a contender would obviously help his win potential and could push him back into the elite once more.

My personal ranking for Zack Greinke and Blake Snell are about 20-30 spots lower than my compadres. This has nothing to do with those particular players. In fact, it's the start of a trend where I seem to have several starters in the top 25 lower than the consensus.

Tier Three

A 3.74 ERA and 1.30 WHIP aren't what we expected out of Aaron Nola. At least he's stayed healthy so far! Nola's hard-hit rate is in the 26th percentile and he's already allowed 15 HR in 19 starts after allowing just 17 all last year over 33 starts (cue Justin Verlander quote). So Nola may be a victim of the juiced ball to some extent but in a season where an ERA of 3.00 puts you on the top-10 leaderboard, we can't complain too much in this case. His strikeout rate is comparable to last year and he has a chance to match last year's 17-win total if the Phillies play up to their potential.

Patrick Corbin was thought to be a Cy Young dark horse coming into the season after his move to Washington. Last year's breakout was no fluke, as he's matched nearly every metric from 2018 and, aside from a few more longballs allowed, looks to be a strong SP2 in fantasy rotations. If the Nats keep pushing for a playoff spot, he will be a key factor. I see no reason to expect decline, unlike pitchers like Hyun Jin Ryu and Luis Castillo who have yet to hit a rough patch but could do so based on their history.

Speaking of the Cy Young award, maybe Noah Syndergaard won't ever win one after all. Early on, we blamed the ball and his lack of grip. Then it was injury. Now, we don't know what to make of the once-mighty Thor. Our own Scott Engel wrote a detailed profile on him early in the season and followed up with another Insider Report indicating he could still be a buy-low candidate based on several factors. It's hard to keep the faith at this point with a 4.68 ERA weighing him down. What's worse is that his K% has been dropping for three straight years. New rumors suggest he could be on the trade block but it's not certain whether the Mets would trade him. Either way, buying low has just become too risky at this point.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

Let's talk Cleveland. Shane Bieber was absolutely dominant in his one inning of labor at the All-Star Game, striking out the side. Sure, Aroldis Chapman did the same thing and earned the save but did he pitch the all-important fifth inning? I think not. Hometown conspiracy aside, Bieber has been one of the better pitching surprises of the season. He's walking just over five percent of batters faced and his ratios are inflated by a couple of disastrous starts earlier in the year. That said, it should be noted that his 45.6% hard-hit percentage is in the bottom 5% of the league. As a rookie, he may be prone to more disastrous starts in the future too, so be cautious.

Mike Clevinger gets a pass because he's been dealing with strains and sprains all year. His last outing of the first half was promising though, as he tossed six scoreless innings on July 3. There could be a buy-low window still.

If anyone should be highest on Lucas Giolito, it should be me. I mean, I wrote the book (article) on his breakout 2019 season. But I understand his inconsistency and control issues could continue to creep back. His latest outing, where he surrendered five walks and six earned runs, can be dismissed. The fact that he hasn't finished six innings in any of his last four starts is hard to ignore though. The Cubs seem to be his biggest problem lately but if he is tiring out or losing his command for whatever reason, it may be time to bail. Let's see if the break does him some good before pushing the panic button.

Tier Five

Upon reviewing these rankings, I've noticed I'm far higher on Jack Flaherty and lower on Mike Soroka than either Nick or Bill. I feel good about Flaherty showing improvement, especially because the K-rate is still strong and the Cardinals offense just has to get better, which will improve that 4-6 record. I feel pretty good about Soroka too so it must be natural fear of regression that drove me to rank him lower. Expected stats say that he is performing as he should but the fact he's striking out barely 20% of batters and has had some nice luck in the win column makes me leery.

I named Chris Paddack as the top sell-high SP about a month ago and am holding true to that. He's already been sent down temporarily once and will probably see more time off in the near future. He's got the stuff, even if his pitch mix is limited, but this isn't the year to trust him down the stretch of a fantasy playoff race.

Zach Wheeler has also been linked to trade talks and could wind up in San Diego or Milwaukee before the year is up. This would be a boon to his value, although that would involve trusting him. He's looked bad at times but all his xStats are above average, with a fastball velocity that ranks in the 95th percentile. That will play anywhere.

Time to represent my Marlins! Caleb Smith was one of the best pitchers in the majors before he hit the injured list and should rightfully have been nominated as the team's All-Star representative. Now that he's back, people seem have forgotten about his elite strikeout numbers and 1.01 WHIP. The wins are even more promising now that the Marlins are playing .500 ball since May. The fact he's even available in more than a third of fantasy leagues disturbs me.

Tier Six

I'm done with Yu Darvish. Done. I mean, I still own him in about six leagues so technically not completely done but you get the drift. He's been a hard pill to swallow even on a discounted draft price this year. Glimmers of hope, like his strong start against the Dodgers a couple of weeks ago, are immediately erased by four-run and five-run outings. He's only tossed four quality starts out of 18 this season. If you have aspirations of winning your league, move on from him now.

Is there still hope left for Nick Pivetta? He seemed to get it together for about a one-week span after being recalled from Triple-A and then continued to implode time after time. He is a lost cause at this point and doesn't belong in the top 200 overall.

Out of sight, out of mind? That seems to be the mentality of many fantasy owners. Young studs Domingo German and Tyler Glasnow are both similar to Caleb Smith in the sense that they were sensational to start the season and then hit the shelf with injuries and became devalued. I have personally been able to buy German and Smith at discounted rates over the past couple of weeks and may soon pull the trigger on Glasnow. His forearm strain isn't indicative of other major issues and he said he expects to pitch again this season. Reevaluate the situation in a week and see if he can help sooner than later.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

I know I'm still too high on Jon Gray and always will be. He is what he is at this point - a hard-thrower who isn't fazed by Coors but is also prone to getting hit hard at times. He is and will remain a low-end rotation arm in fantasy.

On the other end of the velocity spectrum, Miles Mikolas isn't worth your time outside of points leagues - I'll have to slide him way down my personal rankings.

Trevor Williams isn't going to blow anyone away but he has shown the ability to limit opposing offenses. That said, he's been outright terrible in three starts since coming off the IL. For that reason, he's been dumped in many leagues. Take a wait-and-see approach to determine whether he can get back on track after the break. He could be a worthy streamer if nothing else, at least for your ratios.

Tier Eight and lower

Many busts reside here, such as Mike Foltynewicz, Yusei Kikuchi, and Ross Stripling. Starters don't typically post dramatic turnarounds midseason so taking a chance on a young pitcher like Zac Gallen, Jesus Luzardo, or Zach Plesac might be a better strategy.

Buy-low candidates worth considering for those in the middle of the standings include: Luke Weaver, Sandy Alcantara, Eric Lauer.

Regardless of standing, I'm not holding my breath waiting on Corey Kluber or Luis Severino to return in an effective way. Chalk it up as a lost season and move on.

More Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis