Updated Starting Pitcher Rankings - H2H Points Leagues

We are continuing our updated analysis of points league tiered rankings with a final look at starting pitchers. In H2H points leagues, starting pitchers are the lifeblood of a fantasy team. The more innings and strikeouts a starter can rack up, the further it carries your team toward a championship.

There is a solid core of SP at the top that are sure to fly off draft boards much earlier than in roto leagues. While you don't necessarily need to have an ace in the first round or two, you will need to make sure that your later selections are on the reliable end. Less-enticing pitchers such as Jose Quintana, Rick Porcello, Zack Godley, or Trevor Williams could be solid rotation pieces, while breakout candidates like Luis Castillo, Nick Pivetta, or Nathan Eovaldi should be discounted a bit.

If you are relatively new to points leagues, you need to pay close attention to the difference between these rankings and that of standard 5x5 roto formats. In a points system, you need to account for walk and strikeout rates while de-emphasizing steals and saves that are so valuable in roto. Using RotoBaller ranks gives you a considerable advantage over the rest of your league which will likely run off of a standard rankings list. Get to know the overvalued and undervalued players to dominate your points league!

 

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - H2H Points Leagues (March)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rank	Tier	Player Name	Position	Nick	JB	Bill	Auction $
1	1	Max Scherzer	SP	3	2	4	44
2	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	5	6	6	41
3	1	Chris Sale	SP	6	5	9	40
4	1	Justin Verlander	SP	8	9	14	37
5	1	Corey Kluber	SP	17	12	10	36
6	2	Gerrit Cole	SP	13	17	22	34
7	2	Aaron Nola	SP	25	10	19	32
8	2	Trevor Bauer	SP	10	15	33	31
9	2	Blake Snell	SP	23	18	24	30
10	2	Carlos Carrasco	SP	20	21	27	29
11	2	Noah Syndergaard	SP	21	32	43	28
12	2	Walker Buehler	SP	33	28	42	27
13	3	Patrick Corbin	SP	42	25	44	24
14	3	James Paxton	SP	41	41	37	24
15	3	Stephen Strasburg	SP	46	45	45	23
16	3	Zack Greinke	SP	45	50	46	22
17	3	Luis Severino	SP	44	37	61	21
18	3	Jameson Taillon	SP	52	57	57	20
19	4	Clayton Kershaw	SP	79	67	25	20
20	4	German Marquez	SP	58	64	50	19
21	4	Mike Clevinger	SP	51	55	68	19
22	4	David Price	SP	64	56	56	19
23	4	Jack Flaherty	SP	65	63	53	19
24	4	Zack Wheeler	SP	57	60	69	17
25	4	Jose Berrios	SP	74	70	58	17
26	4	Miles Mikolas	SP	66	72	80	17
27	4	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	84	107	100	16
28	4	J.A. Happ	SP	91	103	99	16
29	5	Kyle Hendricks	SP	78	113	103	15
30	5	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	118	99	83	15
31	5	Charlie Morton	SP	127	82	92	14
32	5	Madison Bumgarner	SP	143	89	104	14
33	5	Chris Archer	SP	135	102	116	14
34	5	Luis Castillo	SP	125	133	129	12
35	5	Kyle Freeland	SP	148	129	115	11
36	5	Yu Darvish	SP	113	134	148	10
37	5	Nick Pivetta	SP	134	145	133	9
38	5	Rick Porcello	SP	122	159	138	9
39	6	Rich Hill	SP	124	151	165	9
40	6	Cole Hamels	SP	142	156	144	9
41	6	Robbie Ray	SP	133	150	164	8
42	6	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	140	127	181	8
43	6	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	132	144	177	8
44	6	Jon Gray	SP	179	158	118	7
45	7	Andrew Heaney	SP	170	128	183	6
46	7	Dallas Keuchel	SP	187	157	145	6
47	7	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	145	186	#N/A	6
48	7	Shane Bieber	SP	158	154	186	6
49	7	Collin McHugh	SP	119	211	178	5
50	7	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	240	196	95	5
51	7	Carlos Martinez	SP	211	173	153	5
52	7	Jose Quintana	SP	177	174	197	5
53	7	Kenta Maeda	SP	156	188	217	5
54	7	Ross Stripling	SP	136	185	240	5
55	7	Jake Arrieta	SP	164	202	209	4
56	7	Jon Lester	SP	180	201	198	4
57	7	Tyler Glasnow	SP	190	153	239	4
58	7	Sean Newcomb	SP	220	172	196	4
59	8	Marco Gonzales	SP	189	229	195	4
60	8	Tyler Skaggs	SP	166	203	245	3
61	8	Alex Wood	SP	212	204	202	3
62	8	Zack Godley	SP	221	221	188	3
63	8	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	154	190	289	3
64	8	Anibal Sanchez	SP	149	232	269	3
65	8	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	235	303	#N/A	3
66	8	Joe Musgrove	SP	195	222	259	2
67	8	Kyle Gibson	SP	250	237	193	2
68	9	Kevin Gausman	SP	218	215	248	2
69	9	Dereck Rodriguez	SP	230	250	215	2
70	9	Joey Lucchesi	SP	208	209	285	2
71	9	Mike Minor	SP	226	257	223	2
72	9	Michael Fulmer	SP	194	286	233	2
73	9	Josh James	SP	296	194	226	2
74	9	Steven Matz	SP	242	225	252	1
75	9	Julio Urias	SP	270	226	308	1
76	9	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	202	261	277	1
77	9	Carlos Rodon	SP	251	254	254	1
78	9	Jimmy Nelson	SP	193	251	321	1
79	9	Matthew Boyd	SP	229	276	263	1
80	10	Trevor Williams	SP	257	262	250	1
81	10	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	241	259	293	1
82	10	Jesus Luzardo	SP	223	243	331	1
83	10	Marcus Stroman	SP	297	249	276	1
84	10	Mike Soroka	SP	275	269	281	1
85	10	Dylan Bundy	SP	254	274	302	1
86	10	Julio Teheran	SP	295	268	267	1
87	10	Derek Holland	SP	255	330	261	1
88	10	Sonny Gray	SP	298	275	#N/A	1
89	11	Chase Anderson	SP	280	313	274	1
90	11	Jake Junis	SP	327	289	266	1
91	11	Mike Fiers	SP	281	296	306	1
92	11	Aaron Sanchez	SP	293	299	#N/A	1
93	11	Luke Weaver	SP	264	333	#N/A	1
94	11	Trevor Cahill	SP	294	331	278	1
95	11	Forrest Whitley	SP	289	263	358	1
96	11	Vince Velasquez	SP	291	318	312	1
97	11	Freddy Peralta	SP	277	320	329	1
98	11	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	276	340	311	1
99	11	Trevor Richards	SP	316	317	304	1
100	11	Brandon Woodruff	SP	303	326	#N/A	1
101	11	CC Sabathia	SP	315	366	273	1
102	12	Jose Urena	SP	279	358	#N/A	1
103	12	Michael Wacha	SP	317	271	370	1
104	12	Michael Pineda	SP	323	329	#N/A	1
105	12	Danny Duffy	SP	292	334	353	1
106	12	Martin Perez	SP	328	#N/A	#N/A	1
107	12	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	353	302	341	1
108	12	Caleb Smith	SP	287	369	343	1
109	12	Tanner Roark	SP	359	359	282	1
110	12	Sandy Alcantara	SP	302	378	327	1
111	12	Chris Paddack	SP	322	352	#N/A	1
112	12	Zach Eflin	SP	343	308	378	1
113	12	Tyler Anderson	SP	314	399	318	1
114	12	Jeff Samardzija	SP	299	367	366	1
115	12	Brad Keller	SP	330	368	356	1
116	12	Jake Odorizzi	SP	379	327	357	1
117	12	Matt Harvey	SP	341	341	382	1
118	12	Lucas Giolito	SP	311	412	345	1
119	12	Framber Valdez	SP	286	426	#N/A	1
120	12	Lance Lynn	SP	342	362	371	1
121	12	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	357	418	305	1
122	12	Touki Toussaint	SP	388	335	#N/A	1
123	13	Pablo Lopez	SP	332	402	351	1
124	13	Ryan Yarbrough	SP	405	321	361	1
125	13	Clay Buchholz	SP	339	395	355	1
126	13	Robbie Erlin	SP	320	410	#N/A	1
127	13	Merrill Kelly	SP	321	417	#N/A	1
128	13	Justus Sheffield	SP	358	381	#N/A	1
129	13	Wade Miley	SP	351	391	#N/A	1
130	13	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	377	345	393	1
131	13	Dinelson Lamet	SP	431	#N/A	319	1
132	13	Felix Hernandez	SP	404	379	349	1
133	13	Antonio Senzatela	SP	378	#N/A	#N/A	1
134	13	Jordan Montgomery	SP	384	#N/A	#N/A	1
135	13	Mike Leake	SP	324	501	328	1
136	14	Jason Vargas	SP	368	405	#N/A	1
137	14	Ivan Nova	SP	335	490	338	1
138	14	Dan Straily	SP	396	#N/A	#N/A	1
139	14	Taijuan Walker	SP	441	#N/A	354	1
140	14	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	382	419	397	1
141	14	Brent Honeywell	SP	470	439	320	1
142	14	Matt Shoemaker	SP	406	420	#N/A	1
143	14	Alex Cobb	SP	386	446	#N/A	1
144	14	Marco Estrada	SP	318	519	#N/A	1
145	14	Domingo German	SP	412	431	#N/A	1
146	14	Wade LeBlanc	SP	374	506	388	1
147	14	Gio Gonzalez	SP	541	371	380	1
148	14	Nick Kingham	SP	403	504	386	1
149	14	Kyle Wright	SP	423	453	#N/A	1
150	14	Wei-Yin Chen	SP	319	557	#N/A	1
151	14	Joe Ross	SP	504	434	390	1
152	14	Wily Peralta	SP/RP	537	408	383	1
153	14	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	420	471	#N/A	1
154	14	Adam Wainwright	SP	510	#N/A	389	1
155	14	Jonathan Loaisiga	SP	408	503	#N/A	1
156	14	Ervin Santana	SP	#N/A	456	#N/A	1
157	15	Chris Stratton	SP	522	#N/A	391	1
158	15	Yonny Chirinos	SP	512	413	#N/A	1
159	15	Mitch Keller	SP	#N/A	468	#N/A	1
160	15	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	546	#N/A	392	1
161	15	Jaime Barria	SP	533	407	#N/A	1
162	15	Danny Salazar	SP	456	509	#N/A	1
163	15	Ryan Borucki	SP	534	524	396	1
164	15	Chris Devenski	SP/RP	487	#N/A	#N/A	1
165	15	Drew Smyly	SP	535	447	#N/A	1
166	15	Tyler Beede	SP	493	#N/A	#N/A	1
167	15	Dylan Cease	SP	#N/A	495	#N/A	1
168	15	Jon Duplantier	SP	#N/A	496	#N/A	1
169	15	Felix Pena	RP/SP	514	600	381	1
170	15	Daniel Norris	SP	500	#N/A	#N/A	1
171	15	Tyson Ross	SP	553	454	#N/A	1
172	15	Edinson Volquez	SP	506	#N/A	#N/A	1
173	15	Luiz Gohara	SP	558	464	#N/A	1
174	15	Matt Moore	SP	511	#N/A	#N/A	1
175	15	Daniel Mengden	SP	572	451	#N/A	1
176	15	Drew Pomeranz	SP	557	477	#N/A	1
177	15	Andrew Suarez	SP	570	465	#N/A	1
178	15	Zach Davies	SP	527	521	#N/A	1
179	15	Jake Faria	SP	543	527	#N/A	1
180	15	Eric Lauer	SP	587	488	#N/A	1
181	15	Logan Allen	SP	#N/A	542	#N/A	1
182	16	Adam Conley	SP/RP	524	569	#N/A	1
183	16	Tyler Mahle	SP	630	473	#N/A	1
184	16	Fernando Romero	SP	566	537	#N/A	1
185	16	Sean Reid-Foley	SP	#N/A	552	#N/A	1
186	16	Jordan Zimmermann	SP	540	572	#N/A	1
187	16	Amir Garrett	SP	559	#N/A	#N/A	1
188	16	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	631	489	#N/A	1
189	16	Ian Kennedy	SP	560	#N/A	#N/A	1
190	16	Brandon Finnegan	SP	573	#N/A	#N/A	1
191	16	John Gant	SP	625	531	#N/A	1
192	16	Max Fried	SP	576	581	#N/A	1
193	16	Dylan Floro	SP/RP	583	#N/A	#N/A	1
194	16	Nick Tropeano	SP	586	#N/A	#N/A	1
195	16	Shelby Miller	SP	#N/A	587	#N/A	1
196	16	Mike Montgomery	SP/RP	591	#N/A	#N/A	1
197	16	Daniel Ponce de Leon	SP	636	551	#N/A	1
198	16	A.J. Puk	SP	594	#N/A	#N/A	1
199	16	Tyler Chatwood	SP	597	#N/A	#N/A	1
200	16	Taylor Widener	SP	603	#N/A	#N/A	1
201	16	Jharel Cotton	SP	605	#N/A	#N/A	1
202	16	Manny Banuelos	SP	606	#N/A	#N/A	1
203	16	Adalberto Mejia	SP	609	#N/A	#N/A	1
204	16	Andrew Cashner	RP/SP	613	#N/A	#N/A	1
205	16	Dylan Covey	SP	614	#N/A	#N/A	1
206	16	Thomas Pannone	SP	618	#N/A	#N/A	1
207	16	Bartolo Colon	SP	628	#N/A	#N/A	1
208	16	Junior Guerra	SP	632	#N/A	#N/A	1
209	16	Joe Biagini	SP/RP	637	#N/A	#N/A	1
210	16	Francis Martes	SP	647	#N/A	#N/A	1

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Scherzer is the unanimous SP1 in pretty much all formats, no arguments there. It may be interesting to note that while deGrom is second in our rankings and typically comes off the board either second or third behind Sale, he finished behind both Verlander and Kluber in total points last year. The difference came down to record, as the Mets weren't able to do him right in terms of run support, as a 10-9 record can attest to. It's a matter of splitting hairs between all these top tier arms, so the edge should go to the starter you feel has the best chance to surpass 200 innings again and be backed by a decent offense. In that vein, Kluber could see negative regression as the Indians' lineup isn't quite what it used to be. He is as consistent as they come, but this is the deciding factor when our rankers placed him at the bottom of tier one.

Tier Two

It's unusual to see such a (relatively) wide discrepancy between rankers near the top but Aaron Nola and Trevor Bauer have some wide variations. Nick has Bauer ranked as his SP5, all the way up to 10th overall on his rankings despite the fact he finished as the 16th-highest point-scorer among SP last season. Conversely, Bill has him ranked 33 overall.

Aaron Nola breaks the top 10 for JB, but Nick has him as his 10th SP (25 overall). Again, Nick is going against last year's data which placed Nola as the fifth-highest pitcher in points leagues, but these are projections not recaps, so his forward-thinking logic must assume a full year of health for Bauer will cause his higher strikeout rate to result in a big jump in value.

Walker Buehler rounds out the top 12 starting pitchers but it is risky to take him ahead of some of the following names in tier three since it's assumed he could be capped around the sixth inning of some games. Nothing has been set in stone but many are optimistic he will be encouraged to reach 200 IP.

Tier Three

If you've read David Emerick's excellent series on finding the next "elite" starting pitcher, or his Bold Predictions, you know he is high on Patrick Corbin. JB is on board as well, ranking him above even the mighty Thor. Why not? Corbin followed up his dominant first half of 2018 with an even lower ERA in the second half (3.01) and a better K-BB% of 27%. The move to Washington is not friendlier in terms of home park, as Washington ranked 13th vs LHB and 14th vs RHB in terms of Runs Factor and was 14th and 15th in HR Factor, while Arizona and its new humidor fell down to the low 30s. The long ball wasn't a big problem for Corbin and all his peripherals suggest the 29-year-old could establish himself as a dependable arm for the foreseeable future.

Jameson Taillon might be undervalued in this format as the 18th SP on the board. While the pitchers ahead of him generally have a longer track record and better name recognition, injury concerns about for the likes of Stephen Strasburg, James Paxton, and of course Luis Severino.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

Let's start with the fact that Bill has Clayton Kershaw ranked 25th overall (among all players, not just SP) while JB and Nick have him 67 and 79 respectively. If he finds his way to the mound by the end of April, he could return great value. Health questions aside, his K rate has been dropping since 2015, down to 23.9% last season over 161 1/3 IP. Kershaw would need to avoid the IL for the remainder of the year, jump back up closer to 10 K/9 and hang around long enough to see his win count get to the mid-teens. I'm not saying it can't happen but in a format where longevity and consistency matters, I'll take the seccurity of Mike Clevinger instead.

Miles Mikolas and his 18.1% strikeout rate don't seem suited for points leagues, or fantasy in general. His absurdly low 3.6% walk rate, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 and 18 wins from a year ago beg to differ, though. Mikolas is the classic ground ball specialist who is an innings-eater - dependable and just the kind of guy you want as your SP2 if you choose to grab an ace early and then wait it out for your next pitcher. He could also be paired with a high-upside arm like teammate Jack Flaherty or German Marquez, who each carry a bit more risk of negative regression despite tantalizing upside.

Tier Five

Speaking of risk, Mike Foltynewicz will not be in the rotation to start the season but is already set to begin a rehab assignment on April 4. There is a draft/buy-low window here for a player that, even if he does decline from last year, has continued to increase both his whiff rates and ground ball percentage. The control isn't impeccable (9.1% BB%) which is another reason he is available outside the top 30 SP.

Nick is decidedly down on Charlie Morton compared to his compadres. Morton finished as the 19th-highest point scorer among starters last year but no longer has the Astros offense to back him up. Then again, this is the same Rays team that helped Blake Snell to 21 victories last year. Well, not exactly the same but close enough. Park factors don't bode as worse for Morton so it is likely the prospect of facing the Murderers Row lineups of the Yankees and Red Sox more frequently that led to the lower rank. Although he does get the Orioles and Jays more frequently as well...

Nobody comes at a greater discount than Kyle Freeland, who outscored all but 11 other starters last year. Even if his 82.8% strand rate and low-for-anywhere-but-especially-Coors-Field 8.5% HR/FB rate do regress, he is a good bet to approach 200 innings again and earn somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 wins. Don't be too scared in this format to slot him at the end of your rotation.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Six

The potential breakout of Eduardo Rodriguez or the boring floor of Cole Hamels? That's a decision fantasy owners will have to make once they get to the sixth tier. Our rankers split the decision on this one but this author is a believer in E-Rod after glowing spring reports about his stuff, namely a developing cutter that could lead to a jump in strikeout rate if he can be more aggressive early in counts. Hamels is being undervalued based on his age but showed no signs of slowing down last year and now dwells in a friendlier league and home park than when he was in Arlington.

Tier Seven

If you're ready to take some risks, a pair of Cards lie in waiting. Carlos Martinez is probably not going to debut until May, so stash him only if you can afford the roster spot or have an IL spot available. Alex Reyes is not joining the rotation any time soon, so he is best used as a high-end reliever based on strikeout ability. His probable lack of wins or saves should handicap his value in all formats, so don't feel compelled to spend a pick on him inside the top 200 for non-keeper leagues. Bill is more than bullish on the young potential stud but his draft capital simply isn't anywhere that high.

Two of my favorite sleepers reside in this tier. One, Tyler Glasnow, has been bandied about all offseason by experts based on his pedigree, overpowering fastball that ranks in the 94th percentile, and progress from the second half of 2018 after moving to Tampa. The other, Sean Newcomb, went from hot prospect to forgotten man. With everyone glowing about Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson joining the Braves' rotation, while Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka, and Max Fried lie in wait, Newcomb is flying under the radar despite already having a rotation spot locked up long ago. Like Glasnow, his control is still an issue, but he could be one adjustment away from making major strides. He certainly has the capability to rack up strikeouts and wins already.

Tier Eight and Above

Some arms to watch in the latter portion of points league drafts or to monitor on waivers include: Yusei Kikuchi, Brad Peacock, Kyle Gibson, Joey Lucchesi, Steven Matz, Trevor Williams, Julio Teheran, Trevor Richards, and Vince Velasquez.

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