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We are continuing our updated analysis of points league tiered rankings with the hot corner. Third base has a treasure trove of fantasy stars in the making, if things break right of course.
If you are relatively new to points leagues, you need to pay close attention to the difference between these rankings and that of standard 5x5 roto formats. In a points system, you need to account for walk and strikeout rates while de-emphasizing steals and saves that are so valuable in roto.
These rankings are a much different variation than roto leagues because of this overlooked detail. Using RotoBaller ranks gives you a considerable advantage over the rest of your league which will likely run off of a standard rankings list. Get to know the overvalued and undervalued players to dominate your points league!
Third Base Tiered Ranks - H2H Points Leagues (March)
In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.
| Rank | Tier | Player Name | Position | Nick | JB | Bill |
| 1 | 1 | Jose Ramirez | 2B/3B | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 3 | 1 | Alex Bregman | 3B/SS | 15 | 11 | 7 |
| 4 | 1 | Manny Machado | 3B/SS | 18 | 19 | 18 |
| 5 | 2 | Kris Bryant | 3B/OF | 32 | 39 | 32 |
| 6 | 2 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | 38 | 35 | 35 |
| 7 | 2 | Javier Baez | 2B/SS/3B | 53 | 40 | 49 |
| 8 | 2 | Matt Carpenter | 1B/2B/3B | 73 | 42 | 38 |
| 9 | 3 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B | 43 | 52 | 60 |
| 10 | 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B | 55 | 59 | 65 |
| 11 | 3 | Justin Turner | 3B | 72 | 62 | 59 |
| 12 | 3 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 75 | 76 | 75 |
| 13 | 3 | Miguel Andujar | 3B | 98 | 92 | 86 |
| 14 | 3 | Carlos Santana | 1B/3B | 88 | 94 | 105 |
| 15 | 4 | Travis Shaw | 1B/2B/3B | 117 | 91 | 97 |
| 16 | 4 | Mike Moustakas | 3B | 104 | 124 | 124 |
| 17 | 4 | Wil Myers | 3B/OF | 108 | 116 | 142 |
| 18 | 4 | Joey Gallo | 3B/1B/OF | 90 | 122 | 158 |
| 19 | 4 | Matt Chapman | 3B | 109 | 131 | 136 |
| 20 | 4 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | 162 | 111 | 150 |
| 21 | 5 | Jurickson Profar | SS/3B/1B/2B | 196 | 130 | 125 |
| 22 | 5 | Rafael Devers | 3B | 151 | 176 | 180 |
| 23 | 5 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B/2B/3B | 214 | 214 | 172 |
| 24 | 5 | Eduardo Escobar | SS/3B | 231 | 191 | 199 |
| 25 | 5 | Joey Wendle | 2B/3B/SS/OF | 244 | 212 | 201 |
| 26 | 6 | Nick Senzel | 2B/3B/OF | 253 | 216 | #N/A |
| 27 | 6 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SS/2B/3B | 207 | 281 | #N/A |
| 28 | 6 | Ian Happ | 3B/OF | 269 | 244 | 224 |
| 29 | 6 | Maikel Franco | 3B | 265 | 306 | 190 |
| 30 | 7 | Jake Lamb | 3B | 237 | 264 | 283 |
| 31 | 7 | Miguel Sano | 1B/3B | 347 | 288 | 179 |
| 32 | 7 | Brian Anderson | 3B/OF | 273 | 277 | 272 |
| 33 | 7 | Kyle Seager | 3B | 345 | 283 | 211 |
| 34 | 7 | Wilmer Flores | 1B/3B/2B | 191 | 396 | #N/A |
| 35 | 7 | Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 334 | 351 | 291 |
| 36 | 7 | Evan Longoria | 3B | 340 | 316 | #N/A |
| 37 | 7 | Johan Camargo | 2B/3B/SS | 400 | 332 | 258 |
| 38 | 7 | Ehire Adrianza | SS/1B/3B | #N/A | #N/A | 342 |
| 39 | 7 | Niko Goodrum | 1B/2B/3B/SS/OF | 370 | 380 | 346 |
| 40 | 7 | Jung Ho Kang | 3B | 282 | 444 | 398 |
| 41 | 7 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | C/2B/3B | 475 | 342 | 323 |
| 42 | 7 | Scott Kingery | SS/3B/OF | 394 | 392 | 359 |
| 43 | 7 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/3B/2B | 411 | 401 | #N/A |
| 44 | 7 | Yandy Diaz | 3B | 390 | 459 | 374 |
| 45 | 7 | Eduardo Nunez | 2B/3B | 477 | 406 | 368 |
| 46 | 7 | Yolmer Sanchez | 2B/3B | 497 | 478 | 300 |
| 47 | 8 | Colin Moran | 3B/1B | 459 | 445 | 394 |
| 48 | 8 | Zack Cozart | SS/2B/3B | 476 | 438 | #N/A |
| 49 | 8 | Renato Nunez | 3B | 486 | 435 | #N/A |
| 50 | 8 | Hernan Perez | 2B/3B/OF/SS | 551 | 393 | #N/A |
| 51 | 8 | Matt Duffy | SS/3B | 513 | 436 | #N/A |
| 52 | 8 | Todd Frazier | 3B | 447 | 510 | #N/A |
| 53 | 8 | David Fletcher | 3B | 457 | 508 | #N/A |
| 54 | 8 | Brock Holt | 2B/3B/OF | 548 | 534 | 399 |
| 55 | 8 | Tim Beckham | SS/3B | 451 | 543 | #N/A |
| 56 | 8 | Yairo Munoz | 2B/3B/SS/OF | 545 | 467 | #N/A |
| 57 | 8 | Matt Davidson | 3B | 521 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 58 | 8 | Martin Prado | 3B | 523 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 59 | 8 | Jedd Gyorko | 1B/3B | 518 | 559 | #N/A |
| 60 | 8 | Brandon Drury | 3B/OF | 547 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 61 | 8 | Austin Riley | 3B | #N/A | 549 | #N/A |
| 62 | 8 | Logan Forsythe | 2B/3B | 550 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 63 | 8 | Yangervis Solarte | 2B/3B/SS | 627 | 483 | #N/A |
| 64 | 8 | David Bote | 2B/3B | 580 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 65 | 8 | Kaleb Cowart | 3B | 582 | #N/A | #N/A |
| 66 | 8 | JaCoby Jones | 3B | 622 | 547 | #N/A |
| 67 | 8 | Miguel Rojas | 1B/2B/3B/SS | #N/A | 592 | #N/A |
| 68 | 8 | David Freese | 1B/3B | 608 | #N/A | #N/A |
Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers
Tier One
If you already drafted in at least one league with a top-five pick and secured Jose Ramirez, you undoubtedly had a moment of panic upon hearing he was carted off the field after a foul ball. Luckily, X-rays have come back negative and he shouldn't miss much time, even if he isn't on the lineup card for Opening Day. He still gets the slight nod over Arenado based on his speed.
Alex Bregman arguably should be higher on these rankings based on his tremendous 13.6% walk rate. He stole fewer bases in 2018 but that matters less in this format than the fact he walks more than he strikes out, which is rare in and of itself, but especially for someone with 31-homer power. His 51 doubles are the icing on the cake that makes him a first-rounder in points formats. Bill's ranking of seventh overall isn't bullish overall.
Tier Two
Kris Bryant is probably undervalued in all league types this season, assuming he does stay healthy all year. For a prolific slugger, he manages to keep his strikeout rate around 20% while keeping his walk rate in the double-digits. If he can repeat the 14-19 BB-K% of 2017 while chipping in 70+ extra-base hits, he'll be a top-five third baseman and worthy of a third-round pick.
We thought this would be the year Anthony Rendon gets more respect from drafters, but his ADP has stagnated the last couple of seasons because he doesn't jump off the page in any one area. Consistency is a great thing for points leagues and Rendon supplies it. He has reached at least 20 HR, 83 RBI, and 38 doubles in four of the last five seasons, excluding 2015 when he only played in 80 games. He also has a career walk rate of 10%. The fact that Bryce Harper is no longer in town has probably kept him from cracking the top tier but his ceiling isn't as high as the superstars like Machado, Bryant or Arenado either. He is a perfectly fine consolation prize if you miss out on tier one.
Tier Three
The fact that Vladito is starting the year in the minors hasn't dissuaded our rankers from putting him inside the top 60 overall and top-10 for third basemen. This is due to the fact that aside from mammoth power and a plus-plus hit tool, Guerrero has demonstrated great plate discipline at all levels. If he's anything like his dad, chasing balls far outside the zone isn't necessarily a bad thing for his average anyway.
A less sexy name is Justin Turner, who has never hit 30 homers, driven in more than 90 runs or reached double-digit steals in a season. He has increased his walk rate three straight years, up to 11% last season, at a nearly even split with his low strikeout rate. Turner has also posted an average over .290 in four of the five seasons he's been in L.A. Health is the only thing holding Turner back from a higher confidence rating. He only played 103 games last year but averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game upon his return, higher than Eugenio Suarez and Miguel Andujar who also reside in this tier.
Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers
Tier Four
This time next year, we may be putting Moose in the second base ranks instead. For now, he qualifies at third base and will be treated as such. Mike Moustakas isn't the ideal points league target with his middling average and mediocre walk rate but he keeps a tidy 15.6% K% for his career and is a legit power hitter. The fact that he'll continue hitting in the middle of the order for a stacked Brewers lineup keeps him at the lower-end of the starting 3B discussion.
Ah, Joey Gallo. Well worth the risk in roto leagues but a hell of a liability in any format that penalizes each K. He registered 207 punchouts last year, third in the majors. There's certainly value here, just less so in this scoring format. Nick's ranking of 90 must indicate hope of an increased contact rate over last year's 61.7% which was a full 15 points below league average. Seeing as how he was the most accurate expert anywhere for fantasy baseball last year, maybe we should trust him.
Matt Chapman is a popular sleeper pick this year; his home run in the season-opening series in Japan will only fan the flames of enthusiasm for his supporters. Chapman doesn't have excellent plate discipline but he managed to cross the plate 100 times last year and has still-developing power that could lead to a 30-homer season if he can increase his fly ball rate a bit and deposit some of those 42 doubles over the fence.
Tier Five
Rafael Devers finished below fellow tiermates Profar, Gurriel, Escobar, and Wendle last year in overall points. The hope is that he can swing and miss less frequently, improving on his 13.1% SwStr%. He'll also need to put the ball on the ground less. A 46.2% ground ball rate three points above MLB average isn't good for a power hitter with limited speed. Bet on the ceiling here but have a backup plan ready.
Escobar was a pleasant surprise last year, finishing 13th in total points among all players qualified at 3B. He showed plenty of pop, logging 23 home runs and 48 doubles that was second in baseball to Alex Bregman. Escobar is slated to bat second in the D-backs lineup, which should offer a fair amount of run-scoring opportunities. Keep in mind that Paul Goldschmidt isn't around to clean things up any more, so if Steven Souza and Jake Lamb struggle to stay healthy or be productive, it could lead to a decline for Escobar.
Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers
Tier Six
Ian Happ's surprise demotion to Triple-A just ahead of the season opener doesn't necessarily kill his fantasy value outright, as he could be brought up soon if he plays well enough to start the season. It does mean you don't need to worry about drafting him. The main reason for his demotion was an ungodly 36.1% strikeout rate that ranks up there with the Gallos and Chris Davis' of the baseball world, so he isn't an ideal target in points leagues anyway.
JB isn't feeling the Maikel Franco breakout (nor should he or anyone else). Bill is more confident, ranking him at 190. This is probably due to the fact that Franco has consistently lowered his K rate while providing 20-HR power for a team that now boasts several All-Stars across the diamond. Franco will need to hit in order to keep his job, though. Scott Kingery is the future and has already been signed long-term, so he just needs to hit close to his potential in order to supplant Franco.
Tiers Seven And Eight
One of the biggest wild cards of all is Miguel Sano. Between injuries, inconsistency, and a propensity to swing and miss, he is a lottery ticket in the late rounds but no more. Nick doesn't see him as being worth the risk, ranking him 347 overall. It would take a mammoth leap in plate discipline to make him a viable weekly starter in points leagues.
Wilmer Flores finally has a permanent home at third base in Arizona but does he have the potential to make the most of it? We've never seem him produce over a full season's worth of at-bats, having surpassed 400 AB in a season just once. He is a nice under-the-radar infielder with multi-position eligibility that should be on benches everywhere in this format.
It seemed inevitable that Jung Ho Kang would be in the Pirates starting lineup this year. The team waited out his legal/visa issues and brought him back for this season to compete in spring training. As the starter, he's got the power to be a fantasy factor. His swinging strike rate is fairly low, his contact rate is high, and he could slot at multiple positions depending on where your league is hosted.
More Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis
