Welcome to the Rotoballer.com Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Series, ADP Arbitrage. Here RotoBallers take a look at two players and compare them by both projected statistics and average draft position. Today we will look at catchers; you can view the RotoBaller.com Catcher Pitcher Rankings with ADP Comparison here. If you want RotoBaller to compare two players you do not see listed in the ADP Arbitrage series, head over to the Ask Us section and request an ADP arbitrage for any two players at any position.
Carlos Santana (61 ADP): Santana has high expectations for himself, perhaps outmatched only by those his fantasy owners have for him. He tore it up in 2011, hitting 27 HR and 79 RBI, but he took a step back in 2012 power-wise. He will continue to rack up the RBI, especially with the much-improved Cleveland offense.
2013 Projection: 23 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R, 23 HR, .250 BA
Jonathan Lucroy (156 ADP): Lucroy will be the full-time catcher for the Brewers. In 96 games in 2012 he hit 12 HR and 58 RBI while batting .320. He is very young and still developing. More importantly, if you can target Lucroy, he is easily ranked the #12 catcher, and you can definitely use that to your advantage in a 12-team single-catcher league. Let everyone else draft their catchers while you wait and wait and wait and snag Lucroy much later on.
2013 Projection: 15 HR, 60 RBI, 55 R, .289 BA
Santana is projected to be a 5th-round pick, while conversely you can find Lucroy available as far as the 14th round or later. The point is that you don’t need to chase a top-tier catcher-- while someone is drafting Santana in the 5th round, you can draft an impact pitcher, or another powerful offensive player who will sit much less often than an everyday catcher.
Final thought: Would you trade 25 R, 8 HR and 25 RBI to get Lucroy's production- including his better BA-- and another player? We think this is a no-brainer. Think about perceived vs. expected value during your draft. That’s how ADP Arbitrage will help you win your league.