Oh, were do I even begin discussing Tuesday's slate? I guess I'll start with the schedule and layout. Every single team is in action today (15 games) and every single game will be played under the lights - AKA the optimal DFS night. Looking at the matchups, well, there's the good, bad and everything in between. We've got aces on the bump, shaky rookies and emerging front-end starters. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 8/23/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel. Let's dive in.
What can we learn from Vegas lines? For one, you should look to target stacks from any one of these four games, all of which have an over/under of 9.5 runs - Nationals at Orioles, Tigers at Twins, Angels at Blue Jays and Braves at Diamondbacks. The biggest moneyline favorites of the night are the Cubs (-250), Cardinals (-167) and the White Sox (-159). The hitters with the best positive park factors for today are the left-handed batters of the Orioles and Nationals, the right-handed hitters of the Reds and Rangers, and the right-handed batters of the Phillies and White Sox.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
Atlanta Braves left-handed batters versus Archie Bradley
The Braves aren't exactly the first team that comes to mind when I think of stacking opportunities, but their left-handed batters get a big boost tonight against Archie Bradley. This is a stack that certainly has a lot of value and the chance to fly under the radar. I wouldn't consider it cash game safe, but the Atlanta offense does have a few positives going for them. For starters, they have one of the highest implied run totals of the day and the top and middle of the order have solid lefty batters. They aren't a "power-hitting" group, but they are a group of lefties that hit for nearly all of their power when facing a right-handed pitcher. For the season, Archie Bradley has allowed an astonishing .411 wOBA and .563 slugging percentage to lefties, as well as 1.96 HR/9 allowed. My favorite Braves are Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte and Jace Peterson.
St. Louis Cardinals right-handed batters versus Jon Niese
This Cardinals stacking opportunity reminds me of the Braves one above. Their lineup isn't your typical power hitting core like the Orioles, Red Sox or Blue Jays, but they have a number of solid hitters in the top and middle third of their order who all get a nice boost today against Jon Niese. The stack is incredibly affordable, the Cardinals have a high implied run total at 4.9, and if you stick with just their right-handed outfielders, you could combine this stack with others in GPP formats. For the season, Niese has been getting completely smacked around by righties, as noted by his .371 wOBA, .532 slugging percentage allowed and 2.06 HR/9. He's also allowed a 50% hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Also Consider: Colorado Rockies right-handed batters versus Chase Anderson
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Jake Arrieta (SP, CHC) - $11,000
Jake's shaky performance his last time out isn't scaring me off, for a handful of reasons. For starters, the issue seemed to be control, something that can be corrected from start-to-start, and he wasn't giving up hard contact either. Now consider the fact he faces a weak Padres offense in an excellent pitcher's park, and your mind should be at ease. The kicker? Well, that is certainly the boost in strikeout opportunities. The Padres have gone down swinging an astonishing 32% of the time against right-handed pitching this season. Arrieta has a great chance for a big strikeout game and for a win, which should allow him to cruise past value.
Also Consider: Madison Bumgarner (SP, SFG) - $11,000
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C) - Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - $2,800
Sanchez has only compiled 57 at-bats this year, but the numbers are so impressive it's hard not to gawk at them. The power-hitting righty is still under-priced when you consider what he's accomplished, and tonight is another night to peg him into your roster. He draws most of his power (.444 ISO split) against right-handed pitching and he faces one tonight in Taijuan Walker that hasn't pitched since August 6th.
Also Consider: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, DET) - $2,500
First Base (1B) - Freddie Freeman (1B, ATL) - $3,800
Freddie will be the key piece in my Braves value stack, and for good reason. He's the best power hitting lefty bat on this team and his opponent, Archie Bradley, struggles greatly with hitters from that side of the plate. For the season, Freeman has posted a .398 wOBA and .265 ISO split.
Also Consider: Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $3,600
Second Base (2B) - Jose Peraza (2B, CIN) - $2,700
Most of my favorite guys tonight are moderately priced, but even still, I can't resist rostering a value guy at second base that has power upside and allows me to pay up for elite pitching. Enter Jose Peraza, who is priced well below 3K, has been performing very well of late, and draws nearly all of his power when facing left-handed pitching. He also plays in Cincinnati, which is a great power park for right-handed batters and should be hitting high in this Reds' order.
Also Consider: Jean Segura (2B, ARI) - $3,600
Shortstop (SS) - Brad Miller (SS, TAM) - $3,600
This would perhaps sound silly a few months ago (and it might be still awkward to hear or read), but Brad Miller has emerged as one of the best power-hitters in the game. He's fine-tuned his swing and the result has been more souvenirs for the lucky fans sitting in the outfield seats at the Trop. He particularly smashes right-handed pitching, and tonight he faces the home run prone Clay Buchholz.
Also Consider: Trea Turner (SS, WAS) - $3,900
Third Base (3B) - Manny Machado (3B, BAL) - $3,800
Manny has been on a hard-hitting tear, producing well over the past two weeks with a 48% hard-hit rate. His splits against right-handed pitchers are excellent, too, as showcased by his .392 wOBA and .265 ISO.
Also Consider: Jake Lamb (3B, ARI) - $3,100
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
David Dahl (OF, COL) - $3,500
Dahl has the type of numbers that you could easily slot him in your cash lineup, GPP lineup or a Rockies' stack. His .421 wOBA split is incredibly impressive and he faces a subpar pitcher in Chase Anderson.
Tommy Pham (OF, STL) - $2,400
Pham is my value piece in the outfield group today. The Cardinals in general have an excellent opportunity to pile on the runs, and Pham should be a big factor in that equation. For the season, he owns a .383 wOBA and .230 ISO split against southpaws.
Mike Trout (OF, LAA) - $4,100
With how hard he's hitting the ball, the impressive wOBA split over .400 and the upgrade to a hitter's park in Toronto, Trout is under-priced this evening. That's good new for you and me, as he isn't too difficult to afford and has massive upside.
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