The EPL season enters its final month. We're bringing you our weekly article, which looks at betting picks and game predictions. Matchday 37 kicks off on Friday, May 16, with Tottenham Hotspur visiting Aston Villa. It culminates on Tuesday, May 20, when the FA Cup finalists both host their game in hand.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Also, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 36 Recap
The less said about last weekend, the better. The early slate saw Manchester City held by Southampton, who claimed only their third clean sheet of the season. Fulham was also stunned by Everton, with the Toffees scoring three goals in an away game for the first time since November 2023.
This weekend's fixtures are a bit of a mess. Two games on Friday see the Europa League finalists visit teams battling for a Champions League spot. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur then meet in the final on Wednesday, so Friday's games will be an afterthought for both clubs.
There are no EPL fixtures on Saturday as Manchester City and Crystal Palace face off in the FA Cup final. Those two sides then play their postponed league fixtures on Tuesday. The remaining six games take place on Sunday and Monday. So buckle up; this weekend is set to be interesting.
The details for the 2024-25 #EmiratesFACup Final have been confirmed! 🤩
🗓️ Saturday 17 May
⏰ 4.30pm KO (BST)— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) May 3, 2025
Friday, May 16, 2025
Aston Villa (-265) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+600) - 2:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 – 0 Tottenham Hotspur
Villa will likely need to win their final two games to secure a top-5 finish. That may still not be enough, but they'll have no problem winning this game. Spurs will play a second-string XI as their focus will be on Wednesday's Europa League final. We've seen lesser sides beat Spurs easily recently. A home win is our pick.
Chelsea (-270) vs. Manchester United (+650) - 3:15 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 – 1 Manchester United
It's a similar story in this game. Chelsea knows two wins will guarantee them a top-5 finish. Their Europa Conference League final takes place a week after the Europa League final, meaning they can focus entirely on this game and field their strongest lineup.
Like with Spurs, we've seen teams easily dispatch Manchester United when they rest players. In truth, United's been dispatched by most teams with the strongest lineup starting. Another comfortable home win is our pick here.
The Europa League final is set ⚔️
🏴 𝐌𝐚𝐧 𝐔𝐭𝐝 𝐯𝐬. 𝐒𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐬 🏴 pic.twitter.com/Gvm25NwBIk
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 8, 2025
Sunday, May 18, 2025
Everton (-235) vs. Southampton (+650) - 7:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Everton 2 – 0 Southampton
Everton's comeback win was only their second victory in their last 11 games. Despite struggling this season, they have not lost at home to a side currently in the bottom half of the table (four wins and four draws). That record shouldn't be under threat here.
Southampton avoided making history with the lowest ever points tally in the EPL. Their draw against Manchester City took them one point above Derby County's record low. That won't count for anything this weekend, and a 29th league defeat of a miserable season is our play.
West Ham United (+180) vs. Nottingham Forest (+155) - 9:15 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 1 Nottingham Forest
West Ham's victory at Manchester United ended their eight-game winless run. Forest's draw against Leicester secured European football for next season. But they have taken just two points from their last three games, and Champions League football now looks like a long shot.
All the news after Forest's draw revolved around their owner's actions at full-time. Then, earlier this week, news broke of Taiwo Awoniyi's serious injury and health. It's been a tumultuous week for Forest. One that will hopefully have a happy ending for Awoniyi and his recovery.
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) May 13, 2025
On the field, we'll be playing under 2.5 total goals. Six of West Ham's last seven home games have had fewer than three total goals scored. Forest's counter-attacking style might not be suited against a West Ham side that won't be too adventurous, so goals will likely be at a premium.
Brentford (-115) vs. Fulham (+215) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Fulham
Brentford won four consecutive games, putting them in pole position for eighth place and qualification for European competition. Fulham's defeat has left them likely needing maximum points from their two remaining fixtures and help from others to qualify for Europe.
With that in mind, we're backing both teams to score. With so much at stake, both teams will feel a win is essential, so they will have to take risks at some point. Both teams have scored in 12 of Fulham's 18 away games and 13 of Brentford's 18 home games.
Leicester City (+130) vs. Ipswich Town (+195) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 – 2 Ipswich Town
With both teams already relegated and playing for nothing except a little pride, this game could go any direction. We'll pick both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals as they look to put on a show. Jamie Vardy is playing his last home game for the Foxes, so he is almost certain to score.
After 13 years at Leicester City, Jamie Vardy will depart the club as one of the Premier League's greatest strikers 🤝@jamesallcott analyses Vardy's incredible career in the latest episode of The Breakdown ⬇️
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 14, 2025
Arsenal (-105) vs. Newcastle United (+265) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 – 2 Newcastle United
Arsenal showed plenty of character to salvage a point at Liverpool, just four days after losing their Champions League semi-final against PSG. A win here would secure second place, but they still haven't guaranteed a return to the Champions League. A point would do that.
For Newcastle, they would leapfrog the Gunners with a win. While I do fancy the Magpies to win the game, we'll play both teams to score. The Guners could be without nine first-team players for this one. They have been able to grind out results in recent weeks, making a Newcastle win tough to back.
Clean sheets have been tough for Arsenal to come by. They've kept just one in their last seven EPL games and have conceded two goals in each of their last three. Newcastle has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the eight away games against sides that are currently in the top half of the table.
Monday, May 19, 2025
Brighton (+160) vs. Liverpool (+145) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 2 Liverpool
Brighton go into the penultimate weekend level on points with eighth-placed Brentford. Two wins put them in with a big chance of qualifying for Europe for the second time in three seasons. After celebrating their 20th league title, Liverpool fans turned their attention to outgoing Trent Alexander-Arnold last weekend.
"Booing one of your own players when they're playing, is not for me" 😤
Jamie Carragher on the boos Trent Alexander-Arnold received during the match against Arsenal 😬 pic.twitter.com/mTpkOQY7ys
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 11, 2025
We don't know what sort of side Liverpool will put out, making the moneyline less appealing. Instead, we'll back both teams scoring and at least three total goals. Both picks have occurred in Liverpool's last two matches and in 10 of Brighton's home matches this season.
Tuesday, May 20, 2025
Crystal Palace (+125) vs. Wolves (+225) - 3:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Wolves
With Palace in the FA Cup final on Saturday and nothing meaningful left in the league, this is a tough game to call. A lot will depend on whether the Eagles can win their first major trophy in club history.
For Wolves, their eight-game unbeaten streak has been followed by back-to-back defeats. They may have just run out of steam, and backing them to win this may not be the smartest play. Instead, we'll take both teams to score hoping that Palace plays a relatively strong starting team.
Manchester City (-190) vs. Bournemouth (+450) - 3:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester City 1 – 0 Bournemouth
Regardless of how the FA Cup final goes, City must play a strong team with Champions League qualification on the line. They could go into this fixture in sixth place. Club legend Kevin De Bruyne will play his last game for City in front of the home fans. An edge that may make the difference.
Kevin De Bruyne has the chance to add one more trophy to his time at Manchester City 🥲
Crystal Palace are the only thing standing between him and a third FA Cup.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City this Sunday live from 1:15AM AEST on Optus Sport. pic.twitter.com/BIPmP1xS0W
— Optus Sport (@OptusSport) May 14, 2025
Despite last week's defeat, Bournemouth could still qualify for Europe next season. However, two wins in their last 11 games have seen them drop down the table. City's been eking out wins with three clean sheets in their last four EPL games. We'll back this game to have a similar outcome with a home win.
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you want to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking). Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
| Game | Moneyline | Total goals | BTTS |
| A. Villa 3 – 0 Tottenham | A. Villa -265 | Over 2.5 -255 | No +130 |
| Chelsea 3 – 1 Man United | Chelsea -270 | Over 2.5 -205 | Yes -135 |
| Everton 2 – 0 Southampton | Everton -235 | Under 2.5 +100 | No -125 |
| West Ham 1 – 1 N. Forest | Draw +230 | Under 2.5 -125 | Yes -145 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 Fulham | Brentford -115 | Over 2.5 -175 | Yes -185 |
| Leicester 2 – 2 Ipswich | Draw +250 | Over 2.5 -140 | Yes -175 |
| Arsenal 1 – 2 Newcastle | Newcastle +265 | Over 2.5 -140 | Yes -170 |
| Brighton 2 – 2 Liverpool | Draw +285 | Over 2.5 -220 | Yes -250 |
| C. Palace 1 – 2 Wolves | Wolves +225 | Over 2.5 -105 | Yes -140 |
| Man City 1 – 0 Bournemouth | Man City -190 | Under 2.5 +145 | No +130 |
| Season totals | 159/364 | 175/364 | 193/364 |
| Season parlays | 2/35 (-3.53u) | 3/36 (-10.32u) | 6/36 (+9.05u) |
