EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 33: English Premier League

Jamie Steed
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Saturday, April 13, 2024
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Monday, April 15, 2024
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The EPL season rolls on and so does the coverage from the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Matchday 33 will be a pivotal one for FPL leagues. Next week sees six additional games, so getting your team set this week to maximize Week 34 is crucial. It's also another huge weekend at both ends of the table. The top three all have home games on the back of midweek European ties. We hit another parlay last week to keep the profit ticking over. Let's hope we can hit another.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found here. Follow the team on X (@EuanFPL, @LucidMediaDFS, @df_solutions, @BellRoto, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

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Saturday, April 13, 2024

Newcastle United (+175) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (+135) - 7:30 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 – 3 Tottenham Hotspur

There have been three or more goals scored in 25 of Tottenham's games this season (81%). That's the most in the EPL. Newcastle's had 22 games with at least three goals (tied for third most). Expect more of the same.

Fantasy Player Pick: Alexander Isak

Isak has four goals and an assist in his last three home games. On either side of his injury, Isak has scored in five consecutive games at St. James' Park.

Brentford (-235) vs. Sheffield United (+550) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Sheffield United

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Both teams have scored in 81% of Brentford's home games (the second most in the league). Sheffield United has scored eight goals in its last four games. Both sides to find the net looks likely.

Fantasy Player Pick: Ivan Toney

Toney has now gone eight games without a goal. He now gets to face the team on course for the worst defensive record in EPL history. FPL managers who have grown tired of Toney will regret dropping him this week.

Burnley (+250) vs. Brighton (+100) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Burnley 1 – 1 Brighton

Burnley's failed to score more than once in five of its eight home games against the sides below Brighton in the table. None of them have scored more than twice against them. Brighton's scored eight goals in its last nine away games, five of which came at Sheffield United. This feels like being a low-scoring affair.

Fantasy Player Pick: Danny Welbeck

Welbeck has a goal involvement in each of the last three away games in which he's started. He doesn't hold much FPL appeal but should be a nice contrarian in DFS. He's averaged 2.53 shots per 90 minutes this season and had 16 shots in his last seven starts against sides not in the top three.

Manchester City (-1000) vs. Luton Town (+1900) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Manchester City 4 – 1 Luton Town

Luton had scored in eight consecutive away games before blanking at Arsenal in its last away game. Manchester City will run out comfortable winners but Luton to score as well at plus odds is appealing.

Fantasy Player Pick: Phil Foden

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Foden left City's Champions League game early with an injury but should be fit for this week. He scored a screamer against Real Madrid and remains in the hunt to be FPL's highest-scoring midfielder this season.

Nottingham Forest (+120) vs. Wolves (+245) - 10:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 3 – 1 Wolves

Forest's point deduction means it has to win games like this to avoid relegation. It was a similar story when it played Fulham at home and won 3-1. Wolves has lost six of their last nine away games and with a small squad, their attacking injuries have left them struggling in recent games. A home win at plus odds looks most tempting.

Fantasy Player Pick: Morgan Gibbs-White

Gibbs-White has three assists and a goal in his last four games. He scored and assisted in Forest's last home game and a similar performance wouldn't come as a shock.

Bournemouth (+140) vs. Manchester United (+170) - 12:30 p.m. EDT

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Score prediction: Bournemouth 2 – 2 Manchester United

Manchester United continues to allow shots on its goal at an alarming rate. No side in the bottom half of the table has had more shots than Bournemouth (428). There's been an average of 2.94 goals in Bournemouth's 16 home games and more goals look in order on Saturday.

Fantasy Player Pick: Justin Kluivert

Kluivert has a goal and an assist in his last two games, despite only starting one of them. With Andre Onana having faced 107 shots in his last four games, Kluivert could be an ideal differential in FPL (0.6% rostered).

 

Sunday, April 14, 2024

Liverpool (-475) vs. Crystal Palace (+1100) - 9:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Liverpool 3 – 0 Crystal Palace

Only three teams have avoided defeat at Anfield this season in 16 games. All three are currently top-six sides in the league table. It's difficult to know whether Palace finds a goal or limits Liverpool (who has been profligate in front of the goal). The safest play is going with the home side to win in any parlay.

Fantasy Player Pick: Mo Salah

Salah came on at halftime in Liverpool's Europa League tie on Thursday. Although he'd have been hoping for a full rest, he should at least be a bit fresher than some teammates. Mainly due to injury, Salah hasn't scored at home since Matchday 20. That will surely change on Sunday.

West Ham United (+140) vs. Fulham (+185) - 9:00 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 – 0 Fulham

West Ham will have exerted plenty of energy on Thursday when facing Leverkusen in the Europe League. However, they've been used to the Thursday/Sunday schedule over the last couple of seasons and Fulham's away record is poor. The Cottagers have just 11 points on the road, something only the bottom-four teams have fewer than. A home win still looks too well-priced.

Fantasy Player Pick: Mohammed Kudus

With Jarrod Bowen nursing an injury, Kudus will need to carry West Ham's biggest threat. He's tallied 14 goal involvements this season and will be integral to West Ham's chances of qualifying for Europe again next season.

Arsenal (-350) vs. Aston Villa (+800) - 11:30 a.m. EDT

Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 1 Aston Villa

Arsenal's defense has justifiably been receiving plenty of plaudits lately. But it was error-prone against Bayern Munich in midweek. Villa has scored in nine of its last 10 away EPL games. Villa will give Arsenal a game and both teams scoring looks like the value play.

Fantasy Player Pick: Kai Havertz

Havertz has been having his best season in the EPL (nine goals and seven assists). His movement will be crucial against Villa's high defensive line. Should he time his runs right, there'll be chances for Havertz to get his 10th goal of the season.

 

Monday, April 15, 2024

Chelsea (-145) vs. Everton (+380) - 3:00 p.m. EDT

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 1 Everton

Chelsea's games continue to be bonkers and unpredictable. Its injury-time comeback against Manchester United was followed by drawing at Sheffield United, having led twice. It is unbeaten in its last seven EPL games with eight of its last nine matches seeing at least three goals. Backing that trend to continue seems the best option.

Fantasy Player Pick: Cole Palmer

Palmer is Chelsea's biggest threat in every game. With Everton having conceded the second-most penalties in the league this season (seven), he has an even better chance of a big points haul. He makes a fine captain option in FPL this week.

 

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).

Game Moneyline Over/Under 2.5 BTTS
Newcastle 2 – 3 Tottenham Tottenham +135 O2.5 -285 Yes -295
Brentford 2 – 1 Sheff Utd Brentford -235 O2.5 -195 Yes -140
Burnley 1 – 1 Brighton Draw +280 U2.5 +130 Yes -185
Man City 4 – 1 Luton Man City -1000 O2.5 -400 Yes +110
Notts Forest 3 – 1 Wolves N. Forest +120 O2.5 -125 Yes -160
Bournemouth 2 – 2 Man Utd Draw +290 O2.5 -235 Yes -265
Liverpool 3 – 0 C. Palace Liverpool -475 O2.5 -260 No -110
West Ham 2 – 0 Fulham West Ham +140 U2.5 +125 No +150
Arsenal 2 – 1 Aston Villa Arsenal -350 O2.5 -215 Yes -110
Chelsea 2 – 1 Everton Chelsea -145 O2.5 -180 Yes -175
Season totals 156/310 175/310 179/310
Season parlays 2/30 (-22.27u) 7/30 (+7.34u) 10/30 (+22.91u)

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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