Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


ADP Surprises - Early Mock Results

The NFL Draft is in the books and OTAs have taken place, which means that it is time for the start of the fantasy football season! If you want to win your league this season, then stay tuned for a great schedule of articles being released and follow along with the mock drafts taking place.

This article is about exactly that - the results of a mock draft that the Rotoballer writers completed. If you didn't follow it on Twitter then you can see the full draft board here. For ease the league settings were:
0.5 PPR, 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 (W/R), 1 (W/T)

In this space, we'll look at some of the most surprising results and how this might give insight into early ADP surprises for redraft leagues.

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!


RotoBaller Expert Mock Results


Reaches Against Expectations

Reaches are the most subjective of selections, especially at this point of the offseason where little is known about the effectiveness of players in their particular systems. However, a rough indication can be taken from the players that were available at the point of selecting them.


Damien Williams (RB, KC)

This selection will be a reach until it's clear that Williams will be the starting running back for the Chiefs. Williams was effective as the teams starting running back towards the end of the season after Kareem Hunt was no longer in the picture. However, there were established starting running backs like Leonard Fournette and Devonta Freeman. While both players have injury concerns this season, if they are fit their role in their respective offenses is established.

I would select the starting Kansas City Chiefs running back at the end of the second, as the position has long had fantasy relevance under coach Andy Reid- but I'm not yet convinced that the starter is Williams.


Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Full disclosure- this was one of my picks, and after I made the pick I regretted it. Since then, I haven't changed my mind. Scott Engel wrote an article on Mayfield where he highlighted the pick that I made (if you haven't read that I recommend you do, you can find that here)

Mayfield is talented, but drafting him in the sixth round as the fourth quarterback off the board I think wasn't a good selection. Mayfield has a range of weapons on offense, especially with the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham. However, I don't think that he will be a huge difference maker enough to be considered in the sixth, especially as the fourth quarterback off the board. I could have selected another running back or wide receiver, and got a quarterback two or three rounds later.

To highlight that, a realistic comparison is I could have selected Allen Robinson at wide receiver, Hunter Henry at tight end (who I did select and still like in that position) and selected Caron Wentz in the ninth round. The gap between Robinson and Davis is far more significant that the gap between Mayfield and Wentz.


Ronald Jones II (RB, TB)

This is very similar to the pick of Williams, this will be a reach until it isn't. Jones has been impressive as both a runner and receiver during OTAs, but there is uncertainty in the backfield.

Jones was selected in the eighth round, around low-end starting running backs and valuable handcuffs. Under new head coach Bruce Arians, Jones could figure to get the same usage as David Johnson did in his breakout year as a pass-catching running back if he is truly ready to make an impact. (Note: I'm not saying that Jones is as talented as Johnson). If Peyton Barber is more involved and keeps the backfield a timeshare, then Jones will be a reach this season.


Values Against Expectations

Values are easier to determine than reaches, as they are often players who have more consistent production, with possible but limited upside on a season.


Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Curtis Samuel was drafted three years ago but lost his rookie season due to injury. The Panthers have a number of targets available, and some of that is going to funnel to Samuel. Samuel is currently the third receiver on the roster (behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore), but Samuel is likely more able to score touchdowns than Moore. At the end of the season, it's not totally out of line to expect that Moore and Samuel finish with similar stat lines, with Samuel being available several rounds later at a great value.


Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)

Dak Prescott was selected in our mock draft in the 14th round, as the 17th quarterback off the board- fantastic value for an efficient quarterback on an effective offense.

Amari Cooper was an impact player last season as the team's primary receiver once he was traded last season and should be more effective now he has been able to establish himself in the offense. The biggest impact for Prescott in the passing game is the increased involvement and opportunity afforded to Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is one of the most talented offensive players in the league and the Cowboys started using him in the passing, exceeding 20% of the team's targets for the first time in his career. Prescott can deliver QB1 value at a QB2 price, which is a trend that could hold up throughout draft season.


Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)

Anderson was selected in the seventh round in our mock, who could prove to be a great option in the mid rounds of drafts this season. Sam Darnold seemed to develop chemistry with Anderson towards the end of the season, shown by Anderson's performance in Weeks 14 to 16, averaging seven receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Coming into Darnold's second year there is no reason why that should drastically change, even with the addition of running back Le'Veon Bell. While the two are likely going to be the target leaders for the team, the type of targets they will be competing for are markedly different. Anderson has been used primarily as a downfield option, with an average depth of target of just over 15 yards in the three seasons he has been in the league. So there is space for the two of them to co-exist on the team.



At this point of the season, there are many questions that need to be answered for the outlook of a player's season and things are constantly changing with injuries and preseason performances. Some of those are being answered now after the draft, but there are still plenty of value shifts sure to occur. As always, keep up with the latest news and analysis at RotoBaller to get the best advantage in your upcoming drafts.

Today’s Most Viewed Players

More Recent Articles


2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Aaron Civale

With Mike Clevinger sidelined to start the year and Corey Kluber off to Texas, the Indians will rely on the emergence of Aaron Civale to bolster their typically-formidable rotation. Civale impressed in his rookie season with 10 starts, 57.2 innings pitched (IP), a 3-4 win-loss record, 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 46 Ks. Due to the... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Didi Gregorius

The Philadelphia Phillies finished 2019 with a record of 81-81, which was only good enough for a fourth-place finish in the NL East. They have since added the likes of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius to improve their chances of a division title in 2020. They have also brought in highly-touted manager Joe Girardi to... Read More

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Shortstop

If you're keeping up with the Keeper Value Rankings, you know we've already covered First Base, Second Base, and Third Base. Today, we will address Shortstop. These rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based... Read More

ADP Showdown: Anthony Rendon vs. Rafael Devers

The first two rounds in your fantasy draft can be challenging because each available player is tremendously skilled with significant upside. Every pick looks desirable, so it’s important to try to determine which player has a greater likelihood of producing superior fantasy production. This can be accomplished by examining overall production and team context.  This... Read More

2020 Fantasy Baseball Staff Rankings

Below you will find RotoBaller's 2020 fantasy baseball rankings, tiers and auction dollar values for the 2020 MLB season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Mixed, Head-to-Head, Points, AL/NL Only, Two-Catcher Top 2020 prospects, Dynasty leagues, Keeper values Export the rankings easily... Read More

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. Stay on top of all closer depth... Read More

Industry Expert Mock: ADP Surprises

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut break down the recent RotoBaller Friends & Family industry mock draft to see how the experts fared and look at some of the most surprising picks, for better or worse. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and... Read More

Fantasy Insider Angles - Thor, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and More

Success in baseball isn’t always just about pure numbers. For those who play the game and are inside the clubhouse, it’s also about creating the right chemistry and environment. As the New York Mets opened spring training this season, there was a fresh air of optimism around the team. It also seemed to extend to... Read More

Points League Ranker Tool - NFBC

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for NFBC Points Leagues. The tool uses the default NFBC scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More

Points League Ranker Tool - CBS

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for CBS Points Leagues. The tool uses the default CBS scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More

Points League Ranker Tool - Fantrax

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Brought to you by RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut (@Nt_BurtReynolds), this Points Rankings tool uses RotoBaller's 2020 MLB projections to build out custom rankings for Fantrax Points Leagues. The tool uses the default Fantrax scoring settings. All fantasy baseball platforms have different scoring settings for their points leagues.... Read More

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More

ADP Cost Analysis – Kris Bryant vs Josh Donaldson

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is finally upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position decisions. Third base is a fairly deep position... Read More

Platoon Watch: Part-Time Infielders Worth Rostering

It seems that platooning in major league baseball has become increasingly popular every year. This strategy benefits teams by protecting aging veterans from injury and by getting the most advantageous lineup versus a specifically-handed pitcher. While platooning is smart for major league clubs, it gives us fantasy managers headaches when our player rides the pine... Read More

Bases Loaded Podcast: Happy TGFBI Day! - TGFBI Strategy & Day 1 ADP Data

Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) isjoined by Sp Streamer and Zach Braff and they discuss all things happening in their TGFBI drafts. Subscribe to the Bases Loaded podcast, part of RotoBaller Radio's Podcast Network. Like and Subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be... Read More