Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Procore Championship
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Procore Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
Field
Field Size: 144
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 2
Last Five Winners of the Procore Championship
| 2023 | Sahith Theegala | -21 |
| 2022 | Max Homa | -16 |
| 2021 | Max Homa | -19 |
| 2019 | Stewart Cink | -21 |
| 2018 | Cameron Champ | -17 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Procore
| 2023 | -2 |
| 2022 | -1 |
| 2021 | -2 |
| 2020 | -4 |
| 2019 | -1 |
Silverado Resort & Spa North
7,166 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua Mixed With Bentgrass
I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Silverado | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 288 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 46% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 69% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.53 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Strokes Gained: Total - Recent Form (Not Weighted) (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Poa/Bent (10%)
Strokes Gained: Easy Courses (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Short Par 72s (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Distance + 0-150 Prox (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Wyndham Clark | 16 |
| Rico Hoey | 80 |
| K.H. Lee | 90 |
| J.J. Spaun | 40 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property)
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
I thought Wyndham Clark was overly affected in various markets for two core reasons.
- Sahith Theegala's fantastic result at the Tour Championship helped propel the event's defending champion past Clark for any iteration of the board.
- Clark has shown a lack of upside at Silverado.
None of this is meant to be a deterrent away from the second-ranked player in my model when talking about Theegala. However, Clark's recent form and projected data for this week's venue should highlight a much different golfer than the one who took on this course before his career-changing season in 2023.
For reference sake, my model ranked Clark outside the top 25 that week in each of his past two starts at the property.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
My Action Network article provides a detailed breakdown of why I like J.J. Spaun this week, but let's instead discuss Maverick McNealy for this piece since my model liked just about everything related to him this week (outside of his betting price).
I want to note how savvy books have become in reducing totals around high-end options lacking past win equity. You don't have to look any further than Aaron Rai becoming a weekly sub 25/1 option in fields of this strength.
I wanted to find a way to get to McNealy in the outright market because of his ability to dominate at these easy-scoring tracks, but I thought books priced us out there.
Instead, I will take on my exposure to McNealy for DFS and understand that he will be a popular play this week.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I didn't have a ton of intrigue in this section, although I will likely be overweight to Eric Cole, Chan Kim and Mac Meissner.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
K.H. Lee, Patrick Fishburn and Rico Hoey were my first three DFS clicks on Monday.
Lee ranked fourth in my model for "Weighted Strokes Gained Total" and was the fourth-best player when adding pure distance and proximity from 0-150 yards into one category.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Wyndham Clark
$9,000+ -Maverick McNealy/J.J. Spaun
$8,000+ - All Three options are about the same from the list above
$7,000+ - K.H. Lee
$6,000+ -
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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
