Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Olympics
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Olympics
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Field
Field Size: 60
Cut: No Cut
Top 20 Entrants: 11
Last Five Winners of the French Open
| 2023 | Ryo Hisatsune | -14 |
| 2022 | Guido Migliozzi | -16 |
| 2021 | Nicolas Colsaerts | -12 |
| 2019 | Alex Noren | -7 |
| 2018 | Tommy Fleetwood | -12 |
Expected Cut-Line At The Olympics
(No cut this week)
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 | |
| 2019 | |
| 2018 |
Le Golf National
7,183 Yards - Par 71
Most golf tournaments present this very straightforward blueprint of what is being asked. You play the opening two rounds to make the weekend. You get more or less aggressive from there when you add in the final few factors of trying to compete for a win versus attempting to get a better payday, but I am curious to see how players are going to attack Le Golf National's plodder's setup since anything that doesn't land you inside the top three is a straight up loss when competing for a medal.
We will likely see some significant risks taken by those who find themselves behind after the opening round. There are a lot of positives and negatives that can come from that viewpoint, but I essentially built a model that looked for a distinction of how someone played when given a corollary track that is going to generate double bogeys in bunches because of the water, and how well could a golfer create opportunities when combining finding a more significant percentage of fairways, using short iron prowess to create birdie looks and the ability to make putts from within 5-15 feet when those situations get presented.
The top of the board is going to be skewed price-wise because of the watered-down field, but I thought there were some various routes that made sense to attack in the outright market for value.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Le Golf National | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Strokes Gained: Hard Scoring (10%)
Strokes Gained Approach (10%)
Fast + Firm Putting (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Weighted Driving (10%)
GIR (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Viktor Hovland | 33 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 400 |
| Jon Rahm | 11 |
| Victor Perez | 110 |
Golfers to Land in the Top 65 of the Field for All Categories
(Top 35 this week)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are six players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
This section doesn't have a terrible route to consider, as six of the top seven players land in this range. However, I do like the potential leverage and difference that Jon Rahm brings at the price when comparing him to the other high-end options on the board.
My model loved Rahm's ability to traverse the venue, ranking third for Projected GIR, second for Strokes Gained Approach and third for Weighted Scoring. Those totals show the potential we have gotten from him over the last few starts after a cold start to 2024, and there might be reasons to be even more optimistic since my model had some concerns with Rahm's Total Driving, even though those may not be actual issues if the form has turned around.
When I ran my baseline totals for him over an entire season starting a year ago, the Spaniard jumped into the same price range as Schaffuele and Scheffler's current prices.
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
I view this as a similar route to Viktor Hovland's third place at the PGA Championship a few months ago.
Hovland ranked sixth in my model when faced with similar total driving courses, second for Weighted Stokes Gained Total and fourth on similar putting surfaces.
Many of his struggles have occurred with the sloppy around-the-green production we have seen in 2024, but the amount of thick rough and water around these greens should highlight his ball striking and shrink his inability to scramble from around the surface.
Essentially, any player who misses the green will find an equally harsh punishment that will equal the playing field for that area of the game.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Ownership agnostic with this answer I am about to give, I will be considering Corey Conners, Jason Day, Sepp Straka, Thomas Detry and Wyndham Clark in builds this week.
I likely prefer Sepp Straka because of his ability to find fairways and create birdies in bunches. Straka graded sixth for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, sixth for Projected Approach and 10th for Expected Total Driving.
I couldn't get there at the price of winning the golf tournament, but there are worse bets on the board than Straka if you have the ability to get each-way potential out of the wager.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
My positive values were Victor Perez, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Abraham Ancer and Matteo Manassero. I am fine playing all, but my outright exposure went in the direction of Victor Perez.
Perez joined Shubankar Sharma as the only two players priced below $8,700 to grade inside the top 35 of all seven categories this week.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Sharma graded third in my model on similar fairways when comparing his data to the field, 15th for Weighted GIR percentage and carried that same profile projection as Hovland, where one of his most significant weaknesses from within my math got marginally concealed because errant shots will become water bound over the prototypical scrambling that deters his upside.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Jon Rahm
$9,000+ - Viktor Hovland
$8,000+ - Sepp Straka
$7,000+ - Victor Perez
$6,000+ - Shubankar Sharma
Fade In Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - None
$9,000+ - Tom Kim (I don't hate him, but I just think he is going to be wildly owned)
$8,000+ - Hideki Matsuyama/Min Woo Lee/Matthieu Pavon
$7,000+ - Nicolai Hojgaard/Thorbjørn Olesen
$6,000+ -Keita Nakajima
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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
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Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
