Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
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You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Field
Field Size: 120
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0
Last Five Winners of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
| 2023 | Camilo Villegas | -24 |
| 2022 | Seamus Power | -19 |
| 2021 | Lucas Herbert | -15 |
| 2020 | Brian Gay | -15 |
| 2019 | Brendon Todd | -24 |
Expected Cut-Line At the World Wide Technology
| 2023 | -8 |
| 2022 | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 |
| 2020 | -1 |
| 2019 |
Port Royal Golf Course
6,828 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bermuda
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Port Royal | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 55% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.52 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)
Recent Strokes Gained Total (10%)
Strokes Gained Total - Less Than 7,200 Yards (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Wind (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Par-Five + Putting (10%)
GIR + Putts Per Round (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Roger Sloan | 250 |
| Sam Stevens | 28 |
| Andrew Novak | 33 |
| Ben Griffin | 20 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 50 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
*** This list has found the winner three weeks in a row.
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
Look, I think you can find equivalent value further down the slate, but I have no issues with Mackenzie Hughes or Seamus Power if ownership warrants consideration.
I will note that the argument against either comes down to their very sub-par wind play historically. However, Hughes' first-place grade for par-five scoring + putting and Power's first-place grade at short courses does earn an upside that some other golfers in the field will have a hard time matching.
Consider each as options that will shift for me when we get our first drop of popularity on the slate.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
My model is pretty in tune with my thoughts in this section. There aren't as many glaring mispricings as we typically get on the slate (maybe this is what happens when DraftKings takes five extra hours to release the contests).
I don't have a strong stance against Justin Lower, Lucas Glover and Matti Schmid, but it is unlikely I will find myself with too much exposure to that group.
Instead, I prefer taking my shots with names like Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Doug Ghim and Sam Stevens.
Stevens leads this field with 22 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better and was graded as the number one 'Weighted Scorer' in this field.
McNealy has been trending in my model for the past few weeks, although he did get priced out of consideration in the outright market.
Griffin is an interesting candidate because he has been undone by the putter at what is going to be a glorified putting contest, but he placed behind only Ryo Hisatsune, David Skinns, Austin Smotherman, Doug Ghim, Nick Taylor and Garrick Higgo when diving into the expected increase he experienced on Bermuda versus a random other surface.
Ghim joined Griffin in that section above while also joining the entire group in climbing heavily for 'Expected Performance' at Port Royal versus recent production.
Here is the entire list for that area of top 50 golfers:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I have two substantial takeaways from this section:
- Brendon Todd is getting a ton of credit for his victory here in 2019.
- Andrew Novak is being under-appreciated because of some sloppy recent form.
Novak is a sneaky candidate for DFS that could resemble what we have received recently from Maverick McNealy. Novak ranks inside the top five of my model for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Recent Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained At Short Courses, Strokes Gained in Wind, and the combination of a category when you add GIR percentage to Putts per Round.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
We will look deeper into this section as ownership enters the mix. All these names did show as a value compared to their price, though.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Roger Sloan opened at 250/1 on BetOnline if you want a long shot with a chance.
My model noticed this extremely intriguing return, seeing him grade third in 'Weighted Strokes Gained Total.'
As you will notice, every other player on the slate landed at 66/1 (or less) inside the top 15 of that category.
Maybe it ends up being more flukey than that return, but 250/1 is a fun price to take a chance.
I'd also bet on that upside for DFS.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - No issues with either
$9,000+ - Sam Stevens/Doug Ghim/Maverick McNealy/Ben Griffin
$8,000+ - Andrew Novak/Jacob Bridgeman
$7,000+ - Later in the week
$6,000+ - Roger Sloan
Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
***This still has time to change
$10,000+ - No issues with either
$9,000+ - Justin Lower/Matti Schmid
$8,000+ - Brendon Todd
$7,000+ - Alejandro Tosti
$6,000+ - Let's see who catches steam
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
