Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Black Desert Championship
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Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESSPGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Black Desert Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Field
Field Size: 132
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 0
Last Five Winners of the Black Desert
Expected Cut-Line At The Black Desert
*** The venue looks straightforward. I would expect this to be somewhere around four to six under.
Black Desert
7,371 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass
I will break the course down further on my podcasts this week!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Black Desert | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 283 | |
| Driving Accuracy | 61% | |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Driving + Approach + Putting (30%)
Weighted Putting (10%)
Weighted Driving + Approach + Putting - Recent (Not Course-Specific) (10%)
Similar Elevation (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Weighted Driving (10%)
Weighted Prox (10%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Seamus Power | 28 |
| Patrick Fishburn | 35 |
| Chandler Phillips | 70 |
| Ben Kohles | 85 |
| Sami Valimaki | 125 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - Only look at top 65 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
The consensus takeaway for this event is that we have a watered-down field.
While that notion is unarguably true when we dive into the lackluster names teeing it up this week, Seamus Power checked all the boxes I wanted to see when trying to find a superstar golfer in this field.
My model ranked the Irishman first in all iterations of the sheet, including a runaway statistical grade for Driving + Approach + Putting that nearly doubled everyone else this week.
I will find myself substantially overweight to Power and will likely be lock-buttoning him because of his combination of upside and safety.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Unfortunately, the hometown narrative for Patrick Fishburn is going to cause a spike in ownership.
I was hoping we would get a missed-cut performance out of him at the Sanderson to condense this as much as possible, but this answer goes far above it taking place in Utah for those wanting to create a story for playability.
Fishburn ranked first for course-specific par-five scoring and was the first name behind Seamus Power when combining driving, approach play and putting for Black Desert.
As I noted in a section above, Fishburn again joined Power as one of only five players to rank in the top 60 of all seven categories.
In my opinion, those are the two best players in this tournament.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
I had some trepidation about leaving Andrew Novak off the outright card after betting him last week, although the combination of the reduction in price for his futures and the ability to use more of him in DFS made it easy to go in this direction if I am trying to find extra exposure this week.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
Expected Popular Plays That I like: Doug Ghim ($7,900), Chandler Phillips ($7,600)
Chandler Phillips was a top-10 recent producer in the key stats that I am examining this week.
The driver isn't perfect since it ranks outside the top 70 of this field, but I would say Doug Ghim is the safe target for a build, while Phillips has more boom-or-bust to his game.
Expected Contrarian Plays That I like: Ben Kohles ($7,300), Sami Valimaki ($7,100)
Ben Kohles and Sami Valimaki graded as the only two golfers in this field priced below $9,600 who cracked the top 60 of all seven categories I weighed this week.
If my model ends up being right about either, these are massive mispricings.
$6,000 Options to Consider
Let's see where ownership lands in this section.
It is worth noting that some of these players have VERY LITTLE data to pull from and are in terrible form.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ - Seamus Power
$9,000+ - Patrick Fishburn
$8,000+ - Andrew Novak
$7,000+ - See Above
$6,000+ -
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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