Welcome everyone to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 PLAYERS Championship. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you would like to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
Featured Promo! Save 30% on any Premium Pass using discount code NEW. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - PLAYERS
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The PLAYERS
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | TPC Sawgrass | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 278 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 54% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.62 | 0.54 |
Field
Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 18
Last Five Winners of The PLAYERS
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | -20 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -17 |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | -13 |
| 2021 | Justin Thomas | -14 |
| 2020 | Rory McIlroy | -16 |
Expected Cut-Line at The PLAYERS
| 2024 | 0 |
| 2023 | 3 |
| 2022 | 3 |
| 2021 | 1 |
| 2020 | 0 |
TPC Sawgrass
7,266 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded Grass)
You can find my premium course breakdown in my premium DraftKings article this week.
You can find Todd Mcgill's free breakdown here
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Collin Morikawa | 15 |
| Russell Henley | 40 |
| Max Mcgreevy | 300 |
| Sam Burns | 100 |
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite Targets Early On Monday
Collin Morikawa ($10,500)
I had this conversation last week about the public's perception of a player's win equity and how that correlates to ownership and value in the outright market. Those two points aren't always directly connected for DFS since a cheap enough price tag oftentimes allows someone to take a shot at a golfer's overall safety. However, many of these higher-end names can suffer from recency bias when we have gone through extended periods of time without them getting across the finish line.
Almost every golfer who has ever played the game at this level has hit a drought at some point. It doesn't mean that the depletion of victory-laced effects stems solely from bad luck or poor play when it occurs. Still, my model tends to like this route of quality play not getting rewarded with an ultimate upside return because winning a golf tournament takes both answers of good play and lucky outcomes in nature to capture the title.
Over my two-year running model of Strokes Gained: Total, here would be the top five performers in my sheet and their number of worldwide wins since Morikawa's last victory:
Two of the questions I want you to ask yourself would be:
- Does your opinion change when you realize not every course is as ideally suited for a golfer as the next?
- Let's remove Morikawa from the equation. Should Scheffler have eight more worldwide wins than Xander in 1.5 years after averaging just 0.36 strokes better per round than Xander?
I understand that certain golfers handle pressure better than others. We see that every week with Scheffler. However, being in contention often does eventually breed a victory from just the sheer fact of being there every week.
My model graded Morikawa as highly as it ever has at the PLAYERS, and perhaps this is the week he can get the monkey off his back and re-enter the winner's circle.
Russell Henley ($9,500)
I haven't updated the week's ownership yet. That said, it will be an interesting case study of what the public will do about a golfer who checks out as a data darling and won again last week but experiences a heightened price tag over his general going rate.
I am hoping that the increased salary will influence the public's opinion since my model continues to love Henley's statistical profile as a legitimate top-10 golfer in the world.
My numbers graded Henley as one of only three golfers to grade inside the top 25 of all seven metrics I weighed, including ranking as the number one choice three times. The only other two golfers to accomplish that top 25 answer would be Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa.
$5,000 Dumpster Dive At Less Than 5% Ownership
Andrew Putnam ($5,500)
When you take shots at the bottom of the board in a contrarian sense, you are always looking for 2-3 things you can hang your hat on that most gamers may be ignoring.
Some of the Weighted Ball-Striking marks will leave a little to be desired for a golfer who has missed four of five cuts at TPC Sawgrass and never finished better than 53rd. However, I am a massive believer in trusting current form over course history, especially when it is accompanied by a volatile tournament and a data profile that believes a player to be a top 40 fit for the venue.
When we examine Putnam's season more closely, we see a very respectable output, including four top-32 finishes through six tournaments.
That alone wouldn't make Putnam worthy of a play if the data didn't join the fray, but the American delivered three high-end returns in my sheet that I decided to examine a little further as one-off grades.
If I shrunk my model down to only include those three categories (not something I advise), he would rank below only Henley, Scheffler and Morikawa this week when taking a cumulative total.
Also, if you are concerned with the course history, I mapped out where my model had him during each recent iteration.
The -120s to make the cut out there are intriguing, as well as the top-40 totals at +200 or top-20 marks at +600.
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
