Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my dynamic "PGA Rankings Wizard Model."
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Fantasy PGA DraftKings Lineup Picks - WM Phoenix Open
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The WM Phoenix
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (353-277-34) 56.00%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (714-527-103) 57.53%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 55
- Units: +341.218 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2026
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/3-Ball Articles
- Twelve first-round leader wins over the last few years.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $249.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Patrick Gates, Ian McNeill, Todd McGill, Matt Miller, and me.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | TPC Scottsdale | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 297 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 53% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 55% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.36 | 0.54 |
The WM Phoenix Open Field
- Field Size: 123
- Cut: Top-65 & Ties
- Top 20 Entrants: 11
Last Five Winners of The WM
| 2025 | Thomas Detry | -24 |
| 2024 | Nick Taylor | -21 |
| 2023 | Scottie Scheffler | -19 |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | -16 |
| 2021 | Brooks Koepka | -19 |
Expected Cut Line
| 2025 | -1 |
| 2024 | -1 |
| 2023 | 1 |
| 2022 | -1 |
| 2021 | -2 |
TPC Scottsdale
7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded) - Not True Bermuda
Course history will land in my Premium DraftKings article this week!
First Look Into Outright Bets
Check my Vegas Report and the Discord chat room.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite DFS Plays for the WM Phoenix Open
Cameron Young ($9,800)
Whether a 22nd-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open adequately paid off his $10,000 price tag and eighth-highest-owned rate is more of a contest selection question than it is a definitive answer, but I was not on Young last week for those listed reasons.
It definitely ended up better than the Xander Schauffele trap I fell into in the $10,000 range, although I am hoping that gamers will view Young's middling result and hard-to-get-to price point if you play Scottie Scheffler as a reason he goes underowned here in Phoenix.
Young has posted back-to-back to-12 finishes at TPC Scottsdale and was the only golfer for me (outside of Scheffler) to feature over a 5% win equity return inside of my model.
Golfers who have won this contest over the last five years have produced almost a 24% dispersion mark off-the-tee, which helps Young's ninth-place grade at "Driver Heavy" courses and newfound putting acumen in 2025. If that flat stick continues to cooperate, the sky is the limit for him at similar tests moving forward.
Jordan Spieth ($8,200)
I never play Jordan Spieth. I always find the ownership to be too high or the game to be too erratic, but there is a reason the American has thrived at TPC Scottsdale over the years.
Scottsdale is a venue that massively rewards players who are not only aggressive in their mentality but also sometimes wayward off the tee. Sure, big misses are there to create havoc if you find yourself behind a cactus or rock, but the overall low-missed fairway penalty allows a name like Spieth to reap the benefits of his aggression.
As I said with Young, the three-time major winner is also an immaculate putter at similar courses and has posted four top-6 finishes at the venue over his last five years. Let's not ignore one of the best "course fit" golfers in the world, and let's 100% not ignore him at a venue that consistently shows the same returns yearly.
Pierceson Coody ($8,000)
In the midst of Scottie Scheffler dominating the world of golf, we are starting to see real turning points in players' ascents or descents, reflecting their actual long-term profiles.
It doesn't mean these answers will stick forever, but someone like Collin Morikawa has continued to go in the wrong direction for over six months now, while names like Chris Gotterup and Cameron Young are thriving and entering new heights.
With that answer, we are seeing odds boards and DFS slates shift their price points, but I am almost more intrigued by that next tier of golfers (Pierceson Coody, Jake Knapp, etc.) because the ceiling might be higher than gamers realize.
Coody has been brilliant since the Sanderson Farms, posting nine made cuts in a row and seven top-25 finishes. That floor has continued to make him a DFS staple for me during pretty much all his starts, but I think the ceiling here is where the real intrigue comes into play.
Coody's first-place grade in my model for "aggression" highlights the risk-reward aspect that TPC Scottsdale delivers, and his fifth-place grade for Weighted Driving might be enough to finally unlock PGA Tour glory.
$7,800 (Or Less)
Here is where I stand with most everyone at this moment from that group above:
Kurt Kitayama and Daniel Berger remain on my hate list. I can't seem to get them right ever. I am holding back thoughts on them for the time being.
Michael Thorbjornsen, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Sam Stevens are easy to go back to in builds. Thorbjornsen and Hojgaard, in particular, are very aggressive golfers who increase their ceiling output at a course like TPC Scottsdale. Despite what my model says, I probably prefer Rasmus to Nicolai.
I love Alex Smalley this week if you are in a pinch inside the $6,000 range. He was one of only 13 golfers to crack the top 60 of all seven statistical categories that I weighed in Phoenix. A lot of those names are going to be popular for DFS, although I am not quite as sure if he will fit into that mold.
More PGA Analysis and Picks
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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