Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2026 Farmers Insurance Open. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my dynamic "PGA Rankings Wizard Model."
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Fun Offer This Week
Fun game this week for those who make a copy of my model and weigh the data themselves.
- Tell me how you weighed the data + show me an image of the categories you weighed.
- Screenshot the top 10+ names from within your copy of the model. It must be a brand-new model and not my original copy. I am looking for creativity with how things were built.
If your No. 1 player from within your build wins the tournament, I will send $10 to you this week.
Here is an example of mine:
Top-10 Names
Categories I Weighed
Fantasy PGA DraftKings Lineup Picks - The American Express
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Farmers Insurance
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (353-277-34) 56.00%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (714-527-103) 57.53%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 55
- Units: +341.218 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2026
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Twelve first-round leader wins over the last few years.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $249.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Patrick Gates, Ian McNeill, Todd McGill, Matt Miller, and me.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Torrey Pines | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 292 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 55% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 64% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 55% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.72 | 0.54 |
The Farmers Insurance Field
- Field Size: 145+
- Cut: Top-65 & Ties
- Top 20 Entrants:
Last Five Winners of The Farmers
| 2025 | Harris English | -8 |
| 2024 | Matthieu Pavon | -13 |
| 2023 | Max Homa | -13 |
| 2022 | Luke List | -15 |
| 2021 | Patrick Reed | -14 |
Expected Cut-Line
| 2025 | |
| 2024 | |
| 2023 | |
| 2022 | |
| 2021 |
Torrey Pines South + Torrey Pines North
7,698 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa (South) - Bent/Poa (North)
Course history will land in my Vegas Report this week!
First Look Into Outright Bets
Check my Vegas Report and the Discord chat room.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite DFS Plays for the Farmers Insurance Open
Jake Knapp ($8,200)
There's a reason we see the same names find success here repeatedly.
Torrey Pines is a very straightforward course that asks players to hit the same handful of shots over and over again. Whether that is ripping driver into thin landing areas, locating small greens from 200+ yards, or finding success on grainy California Poa, the field is taking two or three sections of a game and doing that till a winner is decided.
I decided to look within my model to see who the largest increasers would be when only diving into overall proximity versus the condensed 200+ range. Here are the most significant climbers in 200+ proximity versus their baseline projections elsewhere.
There must be something in the water with the Hojgaard twins to make them such savvy long-iron players compared to their baseline projections. Still, that entire list above sees a heightened upside because of their ability to take advantage of a longer course. There is a reason we are seeing sharp action on nearly the entire section.
I decided to back Nicolai Hojgaard, Jake Knapp, and Garrick Higgo in the outright market. Higgo, specifically, sees huge boosts when condensing his long-term profile down to only the last handful of months.
Chris Gotterup ($9,000)
I've already acknowledged this fact, but I could have had 50 outright picks at the Sony Open, and I wouldn't have landed on Chris Gotterup. As ridiculous as this sounds, it doesn't even mean he was a good or a bad pick there. People with immense talent can win at courses that don't 100% fit their game. It just suggests that my long-term numbers didn't find him to be a perfect selection at a course that mitigated his driving ability at its most basic level.
Gotterup's profile isn't exactly 100% perfect here, either, since Cali Poa and proximity texts can sometimes skew his results, but I view this as a situation where the American should be a top-7 favorite in this field but is going off the board as the 11th name on DraftKings.
I am not going to find myself getting there in the outright market with that compressed pricing, but this price tag is way too cheap for someone who has proved to be a top-20 player in the world. My model ranked him ninth for Weighted Scoring, helping him to land as one of only three players in this $9,000+ range to crack the top 20 for both South and North scoring projections. The other two were Will Zalatoris and J.J. Spaun.
$7,600 (Or Less)
Here is where I stand with most everyone at this moment from that list above:
I am all in on Nicolai Hojgaard.
Sami Valimaki, Patrick Rodgers, and Andrew Novak were three players I took in matchups early in the week. I am sure you can look at movement in the space to figure out who I recommended them against inside the RotoBaller Discord.
Michael Thorbjornsen and Pierceson Coody were two golfers I very much wanted to get to in the outright market, but ran out of room. I will be using both for DFS and love their North scoring potential.
Thorbjorn Olesen and John Keefer will be staples to build.
I don't know what to think about Akshay Bhatia. He looks broken to me, but the upside numbers love him. He feels like a shot in the outright market but a cautious deployment for DFS. I will likely need a bunch of leverage, despite the grade.
More PGA Analysis and Picks
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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