Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Utah Championship. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
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Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The Utah Championship
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Utah Championship
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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Black Desert
7,371 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bent
- Final Tom Weiskopf design of his career
- The course runs through a lave field and is surrounded by picturesque mountains
- Elevation is key - This 7,400-yard distance shrinks because of the carry shots will get
- Black Desert played as one of the easiest courses on tour in 2024 during its initial rendition. Think of a venue that will deliver high GIR rates and soft conditions throughout.
- Extremely wayward drives can become a problem, but distance will help
Comp Courses: A lot of your standard elevated contests that are made for TV.
TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, etc.
Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance
***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold
Winners
OTT - 24.4%
APP - 14.6%
ATG - 17.2%
Putt - 43.8%
I thought the dispersion output for winners was too wonky to use as anything more than a guide. One year is merely a template to show how Matt McCarty won. I'd dive deeper into the other areas.
Top Five Performers
OTT - 21.2%
APP - 35.1%
ATG - 4.0%
Putt - 39.7%
Top 10 Performers
OTT - 17.7%
APP - 37.7%
ATG - 5.7%
Putt - 39.5%
Top 20 Performers
OTT - 18.9%
APP - 31.9%
ATG - 10.6%
Putt - 38.6%
Cut Makers
OTT - 24.7%
APP - 34.4%
ATG - 6.8%
Putt - 34.1%
*** Overall totals when averaging across the board:
OTT (20.62%) -- APP (34.77%) -- ATG (6.62%) -- Putting (37.99%)
I would think of this as a test that rewards distance but looks more into approach and putting acumen from the specified ranges.
Profiles That Most Closely Resemble That Of Past Winners
This doesn't mean these are the most likely players to win the title, but what it does suggest is that these players are most similar statistically to those who have won here in the past:
There is not much better than finding a profile of the most similar winner being the one guy who has won this event. While that might sound like an obvious answer, it means that McCarty's long-term skill set was ideal for this course. It makes me take a deeper diver into all other names on this T10.
Profiles That Most Closely Resemble Those Who Make The Cut
The profiles around winning and making the cut are very similar. Ventura popping as well as he did in this area was why I made him my first matchup wager of the week.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | Black Desert | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 298 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 84% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 75% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 54% | 56% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.68 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)
Strokes Gained: Recent Data (10%)
SG: Easy Scoring (10%)
SG: Soft Courses (10%)
Similar Elevated Courses (10%)
SG: OTT + Long Irons + Putting (10%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
First Look Into Outright Bets
You can find my bets inside of my Vegas Report. These don't get tracked by any of the public forums when I do release them, so I have chosen to keep them inside of that article.
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) - I only look at the top 60 projected players for either 'Overall' or 'Upside'
High-End Positive Movers:
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
*** Top 50 this week
Golfers to Land in the Top 50 of the Field for All Categories
Top 40 this week
Golfers to Land in the Top 40 of the Field for All Categories
Top 30 this week
Golfers to Land in the Top 20 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss with anyone further on Twitter/X or Discord
We will see how the ownership shakes out this week, but my early lean would be that Maverick McNealy is going to be the lowest-owned of these three $10,000+ options.
I've been a big proponent in 2025 that McNealy is an elite golfer who doesn't always get the full credit that he deserves. I had made an argument that his game would have been nice for this year's Ryder Cup, and it is going to be hard to find a profile in this field that grades better from top to bottom inside of my model.
If the industry wants to underplay McNealy because of this surprise top-ranked price tag on DraftKings, I will be a buyer since I do believe he is the best player in the field.
Favorite Play(s): All have merit and playability - I prefer Maverick McNealy and least-like Noren.
Guy I Am Not Playing: None
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
This is a powerful $9,000 section for a tournament that lacks star power up top.
Names like Kurt Kitayama and Davis Thompson are amongst the deserving favorites on this board, as well as the defending champion popping again in Matthew McCarty.
I will strongly be backing those three options, and will be sprinkling in a little Rico Hoey and Kevin Yu.
There isn't anyone that I massively despise, but a birdie fest and heightened price tag on Day will make him an ownership-only consideration for me.
Favorite Plays: Kurt Kitayama, Kevin Yu, Davis Thompson, Rico Hoey, Matt McCarty
Guy I Am Not Playing: Jason Day
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
We have gotten a recent surge of performances from William Mouw, including him taking down the Isco Championship during the week of the Open.
My model does take into account some of those high-end performances, but it is more of the statistical profile of how he fits this course that intrigues me most.
Mouw graded fourth for me in Weighted Strokes Gained Total, ninth at Easy Scoring courses and second when combing projected OTT + App + Putting stats.
Favorite Plays: William Mouw, Mac Meissner
Guys I Am Not Playing: Luke Clanton
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will receive individual rankings for all players and be able to weigh the data to create your own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
Stats Only Rank
Fade Candidates
Favorite Plays: Lee Hodges, Takumi Kanaya, Victor Perez, Patrick Fishburn, Kevin Roy
Guys I Am Not Playing: Sahith Theegala
$6,000 Options to Consider
My best values early in the week:
Upside values:
My worst values:
The market won't want to play Adam Schenk, but I like what we have seen from him recently.
Favorite Plays: Adam Schenk
Guys I Am Not Playing: Chan Kim, Quade Cummins