Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2026 American Express. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
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Fantasy PGA DraftKings Lineup Picks - The American Express
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The American Express
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (353-277-34) 56.00%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (714-527-103) 57.53%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 55
- Units: +341.218 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2026
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (361-250-69) 59.08%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Twelve first-round leader wins over the last few years.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $249.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Patrick Gates, Ian McNeill, Todd McGill, Matt Miller and myself.
Let's Look at the Stats
| Stat | PGA West | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 281 | 284 |
| Driving Accuracy | 59% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 66% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 63% | 55% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.31 | 0.54 |
The Sony Open Field
- Field Size: 156
- Cut: Top-65 & Ties
- Top 20 Entrants: 7
Last Five Winners of The American Express
| 2025 | Sepp Straka | -25 |
| 2024 | Nick Dunlap | -29 |
| 2023 | John Rahm | -27 |
| 2022 | Hudson Swafford | -23 |
| 2021 | Si Woo Kim | -23 |
Expected Cut-Line
| 2025 | -7 |
| 2024 | -8 |
| 2023 | -7 |
| 2022 | -6 |
| 2021 | -6 |
PGA West Stadium + La Quinta + Nicklaus Tournament
7,187 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Overseeded Bermuda (Stadium)
Course history will land in my Vegas Report this week!
First Look Into Outright Bets
Check my Vegas Report and the Discord chat room.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite DFS Plays for The Sony Open
Si Woo Kim ($9,000)
Can Si Woo Kim make enough putts to win this week? That answer remains to be seen, but the 30-year-old brings a recent ball-striking pedigree that can match pretty much anyone but the world number one.
Projected Tee-To-Green Performance In Palm Springs
The negative upside total that you see next to Kim's name of five versus nine in my model stems from the historically poor return with his flat stick in the past. We saw that last week from him when he gained +4.246 strokes tee-to-green but lost -4.706 with his putter.
We will see where he lands at a tournament this week that doesn't have tracking for 50% of its rounds, but it is worth noting that the putter has been a weapon for Kim over the years, gaining +3.6 during his 2021 victory and over three strokes on four other occasions. If that output happens again, the sky is the limit.
Harry Hall ($9,300)
The Sunday scaries continue to plague Harry Hall, but let's not overlook a golfer who entered round four as one of only three players to have gained +0.50 strokes per round across all critical strokes-gained metrics. For reference, the other two are Chris Gotterup and Adam Svensson. (Svensson has become a nightmare for me in matchups and placement situations on that final day over the years.
While negative strokes for Hall in all four areas on Sunday left us with a discouraging finish, his over five strokes gained tee-to-green throughout the week does start to paint a picture of a legitimate top-30 golfer in the world, who is oftentimes not viewed in such a light.
Hall ranked first in my model when diving into miscellaneous course factors, which heavily included scoring from within 125 yards. Nearly 30% of second shots will occur from that range, and it only adds to the overall birdie-making upside that we get weekly out of the former UNLV product.
*** Gamers are going to be left with a real decision of what to do with Scottie Scheffler this week. You aren't going to get any pushback from me if you want to play him. I actually think he pairs well with a lot of the $6,000 options. Names like Ben Griffin, Sepp Straka, Harry Hall and Si Woo Kim are nice looks if you decide to try and beat the inevitable.
$7,200 (Or Less)
The problem here is that there are a lot of names my model likes in this $ 7,200-or-less range to pair next to Scottie. The ranking you see for any golfer is based on everyone else being removed from the field. I didn't go rogue and have all these players above Scottie.
There's some limited data and concerns behind a handful of these options, but I am going to rotate these names this week and use them in different DFS iterations or bets.
Doug Ghim -115 over William Mouw was one of my first looks this week if trying to find a matchup. We dropped that early on Monday in the Discord channel.
More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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