Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Pebble Beach Golf Links
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa
The Pro-Am version of Pebble Beach is back this year after COVID restrictions halted the standard structure of the event in 2021, meaning a Saturday 54-hole cut and three-course rotational nature are all on tap for an event that might look like it is lacking star-studded appeal on the surface, but I am not going to let anyone reduce the storyline from Jason Day, who seems ready to get himself over the finish line again for the first time since May of 2018. That is a narrative we can touch on deeper in a second, but let's talk about what players should expect from their week at one of the most beautiful properties in the world, which includes real star power on the Pro-Am front of the festivities.
The likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Allen, Mookie Betts, Mia Hamm and Canelo Alverez are just a few on the athletic side of the equation that will be enjoying their stay in Monterey, California, but with all the excitement the PGA Tour tries to bring to the casual viewer tuning into the broadcast to catch their favorite celebrity, it adds a headache for some of the golfers because of the pace of play from the amateurs. I don't have a huge issue with all the extracurricular activities that go on throughout the day because any time the appeal around golf can get enhanced in the eyes of the public, it is excellent for all who love the game, but there are downsides when covering this from a DFS or betting perspective.
Pebble Beach will be on display for those that make the cut in 50 percent of the rounds. That is a positive since it is the only venue with Stat Tracker available, but the inability to handicap the proceedings once the tournament begins is as much of a negative as the lack of historical data the two stops will present us pre-event. Let's quickly run through all three of these courses and see if we can figure out any similarities to use for modeling, but I, for one, am glad this is the final split venue we are going to have to deal with this season.
Pebble Beach - 6,816 Yards - Par 72
With greens that measure a tour low 3,500 square feet, Pebble Beach will be where we want to do the brunt of our research. Most of the par-fours at all three venues stretch between 350-450 yards (some of that is rounded up or down) but consider it one of the reasons we get an alarmingly high 23 percent of second shots that occur from 100-125 yards at Pebble Beach. That total is 10.4% above tour average, but I don't want anyone automatically assuming it is the sole reason for the second-shot parallels. Sure, it partially plays into the equation, but a quarter of the approaches coming within a 25-yard range means the venue must be forcing layups on most holes that will require everyone to land in the same area. That is an important idea to keep in mind because it means pertinent proximity numbers will be highly critical for all golfers since you can't bypass the field with your distance, and all of this added together gives us a 267-yard average for players off the tee - one of the lowest totals we will see at any track all year. Please keep in mind that the Sunday finish will take place at Pebble.
Spyglass Hill - 7,035 Yards - Par 72
We lose much of the available data once we get outside Pebble Beach, but Spyglass Hill is the longest and most difficult of the three stops in neutral conditions. When gusts increase, the tree-lined protection makes it marginally easier than the primary track, but none of these courses are as simple as you would think for an event made for amateurs. The weather can quickly wreak havoc on the field, and while the greens possess a softness to them that allows easier second shots, they still have some zip to them for the putts.
Monterey Peninsula - 6,958 Yards - Par 71
Monterey Peninsula is statistically the easiest of the three, with two of the par-fives producing over a 10% eagle rate when combined. Eight of the holes will yield over a 20% birdie or better percentage, making it a stop you can consider during all weather-conditioned showdown contests, especially in calm settings that allow scoring to be taken advantage of that day.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Pebble Beach | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 267 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 72% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 62% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 56% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.51 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Around the Green (12.5%) - Looking specifically at Pebble Beach, the 3,500 square foot greens are the smallest we see all year on tour, making short game statistics of the utmost importance for those who want to protect par when they don't hit the putting surface.
- Strokes Gained Total At Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%) - The split course rotational nature adds some complexity to a model, but the fact that all three properties stretch under 7,200 yards gives us a template to build around for the week. I like finding quantifiable data that extends to various venues when we get these tricky tournaments, and the yardage totals of the setups will be one of our best bets to pinpoint some similarities.
- Strokes Gained Total Wind (10%) - Keep in mind that Spyglass Hill becomes an intriguing showdown track when winds do pick up because of the tree-lined essence of the course, but it is not as if golfers will be able to escape the typical coastal gusts entirely. Some of the full-tournament splits will be luck-based, which is why I am trying to locate golfers that will be able to handle things if the weather does play a factor.
- Weighted Poa (15%) - That is a 70/30 split of strokes gained total on Poa and strokes gained putting on Poa. I have liked doing these distributions this season. I think I always have been a little underweight when it comes to putting numbers, and this is a unique way to get some flat stick data into the mix while not affecting the bottom line of what I am trying to find.
- Weighted Par-Four (15%) - An alarmingly high 22.2% of second shots come from 100-125 yards. That total is 10.4% above expectation level. I also considered looking specifically at proximity totals from the specified distance above, but I think it creates a unique build when you skip the standard category and reweigh the data to fit an individual metric that others won't have in the same fashion. I used 350-400 yards as the plurality of my weight since we get nearly 10 between that distance at Pebble alone when we round up or down, but 35% of the mix still looked into other lengths.
- Par-Five Birdie or Better (20%) - All four courses will have their best scoring chances at the par-fives, and we see a track like Monterey Peninsula heighten the ability to go low with multiple par-fives that have nearly a five percent eagle rate for the field.
- GIR (10%) - GIR percent will play nicely with strokes gained around the green. I sometimes will avoid the headache of weighing both individually and instead go in the direction of the recalculated route to form one condensed number, but I had a difficult enough time getting all 100% into play as it was for this model. If you want to correlate the numbers, be my guest, but I decided this time to take the more straightforward path.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Daniel Berger ($10,500) - I know the consensus around Daniel Berger last week was that most were disappointed by his 20th-place performance, but those lengthy setups are never as much in his wheelhouse as the numbers might lead you to believe. We don't have to look any further than the fact that all his victories have taken place at either a short Par 70 or the one lone exception being last year's sub-7,000 Pebble Beach layout, but I thought there were a ton of reasons to be encouraged by his game at Torrey Pines. Berger gained strokes with all facets of the data, including 2.2 with his ball-striking. My model predicted Berger as a slight favorite over Patrick Cantlay a season ago, and while Cantlay is the better target for pure upside, it once again believes Berger is the top choice on the board for safety.
***Berger is getting the early nod here under the assumption that nothing is wrong with his back. Make sure that he confirms that himself before Thursday. - Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($11,200) - A lot of people wanted to call the event early last year after Patrick Cantlay opened with a first-round 62, but it was not to be for the American, who faltered on Friday and Saturday en route to what turned into a third-place finish. Cantlay leads this tournament by a healthy margin with 23 straight rounds of par or better, and he looks like a statistical dynamo with weighted totals that place him inside the top-17 across the board in all metrics, including ranking inside the top-seven in everything but strokes gained around the green.
- Favorite GPP Play: Jordan Spieth ($10,300) - There aren't too many leverage spots available this week above $9,000, but the one notable potential pivot my model can find in this first section is Jordan Spieth. The 28-year-old has finished inside the top-22 at this event in eight of his nine attempts, and the lone outlier came during his cold stretch in 2019 - an event he still managed to end 45th after losing 6.4 shots with his ball-striking.
- Fade: Will Zalatoris ($10,800) - I've been wrong before on Will Zalatoris, and I am sure I will be on the wrong side of a take again, but I feel like Pebble Beach is a track that takes away a lot of his strengths, including the distance he can create off the tee - a weapon that he used consistently at Torrey Pines. If Zalatoris ends up going under the radar, I can be talked into buying up some shares, but we will need a shift between him and Spieth in popularity for me to want to take that stance.
- Most Likely Winner: Jordan Spieth ($10,300) - The answer is technically Daniel Berger or Patrick Cantlay, but I am all for trying to create some leverage on Jordan if he is going to be half the ownership of his two fellow Americans.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Jason Day ($9,900) - FINALLY, JASON DAY HAS COME BACK. The Aussie has finished inside the top-seven of this event every year since 2017, and we finally saw an improvement from his game last week at Torrey Pines with his par-five scoring - a stat he had struggled with over the previous handful of months. Look for "the jabroni-beating, pie-eating, hell-raising, trail-blazing, people's champ" to return to his glory days this weekend at Pebble Beach.
- Most Upside: Seamus Power ($9,400) - When running my model to look for nothing but upside, only Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger finished higher than Seamus Power, who has continued his blistering pace with six top-15 finishes since the Bermuda Championship in October. It is worth noting that Power has struggled to find much footing at Pebble Beach throughout his career, but the Irishman has the statistical tools to take advantage of this three-course rotation.
- Favorite GPP Play: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200) - I mentioned there not being a ton of pivot potential near the top of the board, but Matthew Fitzpatrick will create an opening if you are willing to ignore his course history. Fitzpatrick has the best ownership versus overall rank differential that we have talked about so far on my sheet, and we have seen him excel in his career on these putting tests that require par-five scoring, even if he hasn't found success directly when given this layout.
- Fade: None - The entire range grades inside the top-14 of my model. I can't talk anyone out of whatever route they find interesting.
- Most Likely Winner: Jason Day ($9,900) - It is so tightly contested in this range that I believe you can go in multiple directions. Jason Day, Maverick McNealy, Justin Rose, Seamus Power; the list goes on and on for golfers separated by a small percentage.
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,700) - I don't love this range. We have playable options that will find success, but some $7,000 golfers are just as intriguing, especially if we are in a bind and need a way to save money when getting aggressive near the top. With all that being said, Christiaan Bezuidenhout is likely one of the few that can work his way into most build types. We have seen the South African gain with his irons in six of his past seven starts, and the putter is always capable of going nuclear at any moment.
- Most Upside: Brian Harman ($8,600) - After losing strokes in nine straight starts with his irons, Brian Harman bounced back with an impressive showing at the American Express, earning 4.6 with his irons during his third-place result. There will be a ton of volatility surrounding him at this price tag. I don't necessarily have an issue finding a way to use him in a non-DFS intent, but you will have to decide how much risk you are willing to take on for the week. I likely won't have a ton of him, although the numbers in my model love his chances.
- Favorite GPP Play: Matt Jones ($8,000) - There isn't much early love for Matt Jones, who has made the cut at Pebble Beach in 12 of his 14 starts. Jones' boom-or-bust potential would typically worry me more than it is for a venue he has been consistent, and we see him inside the top-15 for par-five scoring, weighted par-four scoring and strokes gained around the green.
- Fade: Mito Periera ($8,300) - I'd imagine that Mito Periera's short game will catch up to him at some point, and there are red flags on a golfer that has been fluctuating with his short iron proximity over the last few starts. Periera's 91st-place ranking in strokes gained around the green mixed with barely cracking the top-100 in proximity from 125-150 yards could be a deadly combination.
- Most Likely Winner: Matt Jones ($8,000)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Nick Taylor ($7,300) - Five made cuts in seven attempts at Pebble Beach, including his victory in 2020.
- Most Upside: Matt Kuchar ($7,600) - Matt Kuchar ranks second in this field with 16 consecutive par or better golf rounds.
- Favorite GPP Play: Taylor Moore ($7,300) - A massive leverage spot is opening up if Taylor Moore draws only one percent ownership. Keep an eye on where that goes over the next few days.
- Fade: Scott Piercy ($7,100) - Scott Piercy lost 16.1 strokes to the field tee-to-green at the Farmers Insurance Open. If you take away his putter that earned 6.3 shots... well, you get the picture.
- Most Likely Winner: Matt Kuchar ($7,600)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
I am trying to avoid this range if possible, but Brian Stuard $6,800, Kevin Chappell $6,800, Trey Mullinax $6,700, Cameron Percy $6,600 and Paul Barjon $6,600.
Win More With RotoBaller
Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
