RADIO
After two weeks we are getting some idea of what is maybe real and what in Week 1 was a fluke. Most importantly for DFS strategy we seem to be getting a read on how defenses are playing. We have confirmed that Kansas City's is not good and we have learnt that Pittsburgh's and New Orleans' may not be either. This massively helps us know who to target this week, and you will notice that a couple of those defense feature prominently for me this week. Below are my DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks for Week 3.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, week 1 performances, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great value plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 3.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups!
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DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 3 Picks
Patrick Mahomes - KC vs SF (DK $7,000)
It has become virtually impossible to ignore this start from Patrick Mahomes. Through two games he has thrown for 582 yards with an incredible 10 touchdowns and an 82.14% completion rate. There is going to be regression, it really cannot be denied, his current touchdown percentage is 18.2 and people were balking at Wentz and Watson repeating numbers which were half that. However, I do not think this is the week that the major regression comes, being the team's first home game. The San Francisco 49ers defense has looked fine but it is still giving up the 12th most points to quarterbacks this season. I think Mahomes has another huge day in Week 3 and you should ride him while he remains hot because at some point there will be a drop off from him.
Jimmy Garoppolo - SF @ KC (DK $6,500)
I decided to include Garoppolo here as an extra because I think this game is going to have a lot of scoring. The over/under is currently 56 and I actually think that might be a few points low. The Chiefs are the third worst team in terms of points conceded to quarterbacks and Garoppolo should be able to take advantage. Garoppolo can get back to the kind of form we saw from him last season in this game. The combination of a bad pass rush and a poor secondary should allow the 49ers pass catchers to get open and make Garoppolo's life a lot easier than they have so far.
Matt Ryan - ATL vs NO (DK $5,700)
This is another game I expect to be a shootout meaning I cannot pass Ryan up at this price. The over/under here is 53 and again that might actually be a little low when all is said and done in Atlanta. The Saints gave up 417 yards and four touchdowns to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1. Their pass rush is not looking great to start the year and their young secondary is falling back from its high of 2017. Ryan has so many weapons that he should have no issue passing all over the worst ranked defense against quarterbacks this year.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 3 Picks
Kenyan Drake - MIA vs OAK (DK $5,400)
Drake is not off to the best start in 2018. However, I think the two defenses he has faced, the Jets and Titans, are among the best run defenses in the league right now. Drake at least managed to find the end zone in Week 2 and had an average of 4.82 yards per attempt in that game. He now draws the Oakland Raiders, who rank in the top-10 for most points allowed to running backs this season. The Dolphins are at home and with this game unlikely to be a shootout we should see Miami look to control the time of possession with the run game. I am predicting 100 combined rushing and receiving yards with a touchdown for Drake in Week 3.
Matt Breida - SF @ KC (DK $5,400)
Breida is coming off the back of a monster game in Week 2 in which he had 138 yards rushing and a touchdown on 11 attempts and added a further 21 yards on three receptions. Breida saw just under 50% of the teams snaps at running back in the first two weeks. However, in the first game the 49ers were trying to grind the ball and in Week 2 they were leading most of the game. Those two situations have suited Alfred Morris more, but I think that swings the other way this week. This game has a good chance to be a shootout where the 49ers will most likely need more than 30 points to come out on top. There is also a good chance they are chasing the game, and if so, Breida should be on the field more than Morris, given that Breida seems to be their pass-catching back, with six targets to Morris' two this year. I mentioned above that the Kansas City defense is not very good and Breida should be able to take advantage of that in both the running and passing game against a team that is surrendering on average 130.5 yards receiving to backs this season.
Corey Clement - PHI vs IND (DK $4,300)
Clement could be an absolute bargain if both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles are out of the Eagles Week 3 game against the Colts. The Colts currently rank top-10 in fantasy points surrendered to running backs this season and I still do not believe their defense is much to get excited about. Much of the damage the Redskins did last week was in the passing game and Clement can excel there, but he can also run the ball effectively too. This will be Carson Wentz's first game back under center, so the Eagles are going to want to make him feel comfortable with a strong running game and short sharp completions. If Sproles is not active then Clement should see at least the six targets he saw in Week 2. If Ajayi is also out then we might even see Clement get some serious red-zone carries and perhaps even some at the goal line. He is another prime candidate for triple figures combined rushing and receiving yards, should add a handful of receptions and could see the end zone this week.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 3 Picks
Michael Thomas - NO @ ATL (DK $8,900)
I was thinking of going for Julio Jones here but his injury question marks have meant that I have settled with Thomas. Thomas is second in the league in targets with 31 through two weeks. However, what has made Thomas so impressive this year is his 90% catch rate and three touchdowns. The Atlanta Falcons defense is 18th worst against wide receivers this year, which may not look like a great matchup. However, the Falcons have yet to face a really talented wide receiver this season so those numbers are a little misleading. With how high scoring this game should be Thomas could easily have yet another monster game in Week 3.
Dante Pettis - SF @ KC (DK $4,300)
Noticing a theme here yet? I am actively targeting this Chiefs defense until they show me they can stop teams. I have gone for Pettis for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he is the 49ers receiver with the best shot to truly break this game open with Marquise Goodwin possibly remaining out or being at the very least limited. Secondly, the receiver who really did the damage last week for the Steelers was Juju Smith-Schuster as the secondary receiver target. That feels like the role Pettis will play with Pierre Garcon as the marginal number one. The 49ers are going to need some electrifying plays to stay with the Chiefs, and at this price, I am willing to gamble that Pettis is the man for the job.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 3 Picks
George Kittle - SF @ KC (DK $4,500)
I really am all in on the game in Kansas City being a shootout. The issue is that the Chiefs players are fairly expensive, so that means pivoting to the 49ers. Kittle is the 49ers player in this article, outside of Garoppolo, that has the highest floor. However, he also has tremendous upside. Kittle is the most targeted player on the 49ers so far this season with 15 targets, just over 25% of the total targets on the team. His red-zone target share is even higher at just over 30%, having seen four in the first two games. No other player has seen more than two targets in the red zone. Fellow tight end Jesse James had a monster game against the Chiefs in Week 2 with 138 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Kittle will need to improve on his paltry 54% catch rate if he is to get close to those numbers, but this is a game where he has every chance of having a truly monster week.
Austin Hooper - ATL vs NO (DK $2,900)
Hooper came good for me last week with a touchdown on his sole red-zone target, along with 59 yards on five targets in total. Hooper now sits alone atop the Falcons red-zone targets list, with three, and I expect him to remain one of Ryan's go-to guys near the end zone. This game is going to be a shootout and Hooper should be able to put up a double-digit outing for you in Week 3.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 3 Picks
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks (DK $2,200)
If you did not see what the Chicago Bears defensive line did to the Seahawks last week you really should. It was chaos on pretty much every snap. The Cowboys defensive line is another really good unit, who could cause havoc. They will be somewhat hampered by being on the road for this game, as Wilson will be able to use his snap count more effectively than he could last week on the road. However, at this bargain basement price I am going to ride the Cowboys defense, and the chance they have multiple sacks and a turnover, in every fantasy contest I can.
