X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Deeper AL Outfield Sleepers - Undervalued ADPs

We are gathered here today to continue our discussion everyone’s favorite fantasy buzzword, the “sleepers.” Not only that, but we’re tabbing these guys as deeper sleepers with a focus on the outfield position for American League teams.

The outfield is always complicated by having so many options that you feel like there's always another guy waiting for you later in the draft. While we're here to help those of you identify those late targets, don't let the upper class pass you by either! Now, let's discuss some folks beyond the top 325 picks per NFBC ADP data for drafts completed between 3/1/18 and 3/15/18. With the draft season approaching its crescendo, it's time to make sure you have some later targets at the ready.

Be sure to also check out our famous Draft Value and Sleepers List, and download the free app for iPhone and Android. Without further ado, we dive in...

Featured Promo: Get any MLB Premium Pass FREE ($119 value) AND up to a $200 deposit match when you sign up with Rival Fantasy. Rival offers 6 and 12-team Best Ball, weekly and daily contests, for as little as $3 per entry. No roster management, just draft and Rival sets your best lineup automatically. Playing fantasy baseball has never been easier! Sign Up Today!

 

Deeper Sleepers at Outfield (AL)

Mikie Mahtook (DET, OF)

Mahtook is set to be Detroit's everyday left fielder in 2018, and while he doesn't look to be their leadoff man to open the year (we'll get to that guy in a little), he still has some sneaky-good upside to offer in all departments. As much as I dislike splicing seasons up, I think it's worth looking at his year from June 25 on since that's when he really started to see regular time in the outfield, consistently appearing in center for the Tigers. Anyway, he produced a .287/.349/.469 slash line with 43 runs scored, 27 RBI, 10 doubles, six triples and eight homers while coming up as successful on all five of his steal attempts in 281 plate appearances.

Tease that out to roughly 600 PAs and you've got a neat 90-18-60-12-.285 roto line. Not too shabby for the 87th outfielder going off the board, I'd say. Now, we do have to note that Mahtook was briefly moved into the leadoff and two-hole spots in the lineup and that's where many runs came from, and it looks like he's currently stuck batting seventh or so. This could change, but don't go in projecting him for such counting stats (especially with Detroit's lineup weakened compared to much of '17) and instead buy the HR/SB/AVG potential.

Dustin Fowler (OAK, OF)

Guess whose ADP lines him up right behind Mahtook? Yup, it's Fowler! The rookie suffered heartbreak and a ruptured patella tendon in his knee in the first inning of his Major League debut with the Yankees thanks to an exposed power box on the wall at Guaranteed Rate Field. That event overshadowed the reasons why he was called up in the first place, as he hit 13 homers and swiped 13 bags in just 70 Triple-A games.

There's more of a counterweight to his value than just coming off of an injury, as he's in a crowded Oakland outfield and will cede at-bats to Boog Powell at first. My belief is that Fowler's superior bat will force Oakland to play him more, but this does require him to start off hot. Unlike Mahtook, Fowler should have a good shot at leading off and getting those precious additional plate appearances that come with it when he does play, but his low walk rates (usually in the 4-5 percent range in the Minors) may limit his appeal there depending on how his aggression at the dish is working out. The margin for error may be smaller than others, but at OF88 I'm not sure you can ask for a better power-speed dart throw.

Jorge Soler (KC, OF)

Soler just recently turned 26 and should have all of the playing time he could ask for on a rebuilding Kansas City squad that will be without Jorge Bonifacio for 80 games as he serves a suspension.  This will be Soler's chance to show that he's capable of playing in the bigs, rather than just feasting on Minor League pitching. He did feast in '17 though, bashing 24 moonshots in just 74 games (327 PAs) with a .267/.388/.564 slash line, but he still struck out 25.1 percent of the time and carried a terrible 23.5 percent pop-up rate.

The fleas are apparent, but he's also the 93rd outfielder coming off of the board and has 30-HR upside despite the poor hitter's park and surrounding lineup. Those who speed and average early in 5OF formats would be wise to target some late pop and save the environment with Soler Power.

Leonys Martin (DET, OF)

Ah, so we've finally made it to the guy I alluded to in the opener to Mahtook's blurb. For whatever reason, Tigers manager Rod Gardenhire has been slotting Martin in at leadoff all Spring Training long despite him posting a terrible .232 OBP in 138 MLB PAs last year, but he did have a .306/.346/.492 line in 388 Triple-A PAs. What helps Martin is his plus speed and defensive prowess in center, but he'll need to bring back his ability to drive the ball in the bigs.

The biggest difference that I see between in Minor and Major League stats is a 10-percentage-point discrepancy in line-drive rate. His 24.6 percent mark in the Minors helped fuel a .376 BABIP, whereas his .207 BABIP in the Majors was outright terrible, especially for a guy with his wheels. To be fair, I highly doubt that mark sits as low in 2018.

He's currently 11-for-39 (.282) in Spring Training with an .804 OPS, two homers and a steal. The 30-year-old doesn't need to reclaim his 2013-14 prime form to be valuable here, as it was only two years ago when he smacked 15 homers and stole 24 bases. My worry is that eventually Gardenhire's hand would be forced to move him from the leadoff spot if he hits around .240, but we can take the present value and use him until a waiver darling shows up, or just hope he shines.

 

More Draft Values and Sleepers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel2 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray2 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele2 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons4 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler5 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson5 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele5 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle5 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans5 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic5 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney5 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga5 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant5 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith6 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen6 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara6 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele6 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes6 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson6 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic6 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar6 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton6 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert6 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones6 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji6 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey6 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee6 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards6 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani6 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson6 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo7 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley7 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque7 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez7 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler7 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel8 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley8 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal8 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes9 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis9 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer11 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw11 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler11 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager11 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz11 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds13 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano15 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad16 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov16 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto16 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin16 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard16 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins16 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist16 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear16 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF