RADIO
We made it, you guys. The weekend is here and we have twelve games to kick it off in style. That's right, twenty-four teams in action and, unlike Wednesday's gross slate, this has plenty of attractive games to target.
How do I know we have attractive games? Our eyes can recognize the obvious but Vegas is the real reason - it gives us confirmation of what we've thought and insight into the less obvious and unkown. As of this writing, we have a handful of games with no line listed yet, but four of them have over/under totals of 215 or higher and at least six have marks of 205. A number in the high 190's is right around the league average, so anything above 200 is something to at least be aware of, anything above 210 is attractive and anything over 230 is a freaking gift from the basketball gods. The games that look most attractive right now for GPP studs and game stacks are Suns at Knicks (223), Miami at Denver (215), and Nets at Lakers (215).
These are bound to move a little, but we also have a ton of tight spreads, which is refreshing and, most importantly, valuable from a DFS perspective. Blowouts are terrible for the minutes of the guys you've rostered, so targeting games with a tight spread makes sense (especially in cash games). In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 11/03/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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DFS Guards to Consider
As there are tons of stars in good or prime situations tonight, it will be crucial to find value plays with safe floors. One of the best spots to grab said value with a safe (safe is a relative term here, of course) floor is the point guard spot - particularly in games with fast pace and a high projected number of possessions and a high over/under. At the moment, I'm torn between a few options in the low to mid-tier range that have similar projections for me, starting with Jarret Jack and Mike James (who happen to face off in the game with the highest projected point total) and should each play 28+ minutes with Usage rates around 18-20 percent. That's great value for the price and it's an outstanding game to target overall.
With the news that Elfrid Payton and DJ Augustine are unavailable Friday night, this moves Shelvin Mack into the conversation for valuable point guard punts (and it also boosts my love for Jonathan Simmons). The matchup isn't outstanding as the Bulls are bottom five in pace, but it's a very modest price to pay for someone who should see 30+ minutes tonight.
If you wanted to get cute and fade that game and/or need to dive a little lower, I'd consider Jerian Grant or Dejounte Murray, who have intriguing matchups and are worth a hard look in large field tournament formats.
Dennis Schroder - PG, HOU vs ATL (DK - $7,100, FD - $8,000)
Schroder is one of those guys I think that makes sense in cash if your roster construction allows it, but isn't a must due to the price being a little higher than I'd like on FanDuel. Use one of the guys I mentioned above if cash is strapped. That said, I think he has a very safe floor, he's yet to put up any duds (even on poor shooting and foul trouble nights) and gets a great matchup here in a pace up game where his team is projected for more points and possessions than their year average. Schroder has an unbelievably high Usage rate at 31 and has the ability to grab a few steals while consistently getting his teammates involved to the tune of 6+ assists a night. He's got a 50+ point ceiling tonight and is absolutely worth a few shares in tournaments.
Russell Westbrook - PG, BOS vs OKC (DK - $11,100, FD - $10,600)
Westbrook, the 1.45 point-per-minute point guard monster, is a guy I'll be overweight to the field with tonight in my tournament entries. There is a lot of things I like about him today when looking at this through the large field tournament perspective. For starters, the enormous slate will do some leg work of depressing his ownership, as will the price tag, the recent dud (blowout game was the culprit here), and the fact the Celtics have pretty good defensive efficiency numbers. The easiest way to attack the Celtics, though, is through the porous defense of Kyrie Irving, and I think Westbrook will attack the basket early and often here. He's sacrificed some Usage this season, but he does such a good job of facilitating for others in racking up assists and boards that he's got a safe floor and a ceiling I'd like to chase. This game also makes for an intriguing stack (or just a core of players) from as the over/under (205) is pretty high for teams that a arent scrubs on defense and the spread is under five points as well. Kyrie Irving and Russ is a backcourt idea I'll be deploying in tournaments, that's for sure.
Also Consider: John Wall - PG, CLE vs WAS (DK - $9,700, FD - $9,900)
D'Angelo Russell - PG/SG, BKN @ LAL (DK - $7,900, FD - $7,500)
In his last game, both his performance and the way he ran down the court without any sign of pain eased my concerns he was playing at roughly 75% health. The funny thing about this spot as that I had gotten so caught up in the numbers related to why I like Russell tonight, that I had forgotten about the revenge game factor up until the time I put the pen to paper. Look at it this way - it's a great play even without that narrative. Russell is displaying a grossly attractive Usage rate at 32, his minutes are safe in the 30-35 range and he's playing a team on the second leg of a back-to-back. The game should be played at an above average pace and the opportunities for fast break points and steals will be ample. Due to the whole narrative factor, we lose a little leverage in tournaments due to the popularity, but he's a guy who's worth eating the chalk for due to the Usage rate and game context. If you're not willing to eat said chalk, then pivoting to Devin Booker is the best way to spend in the same price range.
Also Consider: Bradley Beal - SG, CLE vs WAS (DK - $7,400, FD - $8,000)
DFS Forwards to Consider
Jonathan Simmons - SG/SF, CHI vs ORL (DK - $5,000, FD - $5,200)
Outside of point guard, small forward is the best spot to grab some value plays tonight - be it cash guys with high minutes and high floors or tournament slashers - there's something for everyone. At the top of the position you have your household name elites like Giannis Antetokoumpo, LeBron James and Paul George, but after that it's a huge dropoff. The Greek Freak and LeBron are worth your consideration, but overall this is a position where you should find value plays. My favorite at the moment is Simmons, who carries the offense of this second unit on a good Orlando team that just might blowout the Bulls - which would only work in the favor for those of us who throw him on our rosters. Simmons has been consistenly playing 27+ minutes and has failed to put up double digit shot attempts just twice this season (7, 8). Outside of the offensive responsibility of the second unit, Simmons does a good job of filling up peripheral stats, which help to create a pretty solid floor. He's a good cash game play and he's worth a spot in tournaments if you think this game gets out of hand.
Also Consider: Taurean Prince - SG/SF, HOU vs ATL (DK - $5,700, FD - $5,900) - Cash
Kristaps Porzingis - PF/C, PHX vs NYK (DK - $8,800, FD - $9,400)
The price is really starting to creep up there, but this isn't the time to get off the train. This game context screams extra possessions, absent defense and easy looks for the unicorn from Latvia. He's been on fire of late and we'll we might see slight regression with his shooting efficiency, we have to keep in mind he is an elite shooter and there aren't a lot of people that can slow him down in the halfcourt offense. Kristaps should play 32+ minutes tonight with a Usage rating close, if not above, his season mark of 32.
Also Consider: Jayson Tatum - PF, BOS @ OKC (DK - $6,000, FD - $5,500)
DFS Centers to Consider
Clint Capela - C, HOU @ ATL (DK - $6,900, FD - $7,700)
Like Porzingis, Capela is a guy who's price is climbing for obvious reasons - the production has been great. Also similarly, I want to go back to the Capela well before it gets out of hand because I have a feeling it will be a while before the price starts heading in the other direction. This team matchup has good game context, but the individual matchup for Capela is outstanding. The Hawks are extremely soft on the interior and happen to be dead last in rebound rate at just 45%. Capela should have an easy route to double digit boards (12 in three straight) while also having ample opportunities for easy baskets in pick and roll situations, oops and putbacks. If you need to spend down in cash that's understandable, but be sure to have shares in tournaments, especially if you're getting exposure to this pretty attractive game. And if you fade this game's backcourt, he's a fine one-off due to the rebounding opportunity.
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