RADIO
Good morning my fellow Rotoballer ladies and gentlemen. We have a gloriously full slate of baseball on deck tonight in the Main contest, so there's much to be excited for and even more to break down. There is such a strong collection of pitchers on the bump tonight that it would take me 20 minutes to list them all. Take this as a warning that deciding on a pitcher is going to be tough tonight - but only because we have a wealth of healthy options!
Before I jump into player analysis, let's see what we can derive from the early morning Vegas lines that have been posted. I'm most interested in run projections, game run totals and moneyline favorites, for stacking, avoiding and finding cash game pitchers, respectively. As for run projections, the Rockies are the current kings of the projection hill at 6.7 runs, followed by the Mets (5.9), Blue Jays (5.8), Rangers (5.5), Yankees (5.5), and Dodgers (5.2). That is certainly a healthy number of teams with run projections north of five, which is usually a good benchmark to determine what is attractive versus what isn't. Context, of course, is key. As for moneyline favorites, it starts with the Blue Jays (-217), followed by the Nationals (-206), the Yankees (-179) and the Cubs (-166). Those are good places to start searching for cash game pitchers.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 8/1/17. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. Let's get to it, shall we?
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DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Max Scherzer - SP, WAS @ MIA (DK - $13,200, FD - $11,500)
At first glance, I thought deciding between Chris Sale and Max Scherzer today was going to be a no-brainer. We're all aware of Mad Max's last few starts, yes? He was rocked pretty good on the 21st against the Diamondbacks, but did bounce back against the Brewers last week. Sale, on the other hand, has been dominant. Seeing as they're nearly the same price, it has to be Sale, right? I thought so at first, but a deeper dive into opponent landed me on Scherzer.
The DFS pitching world is won and lost with strikeouts, and I see a pretty sizable advantage for Scherzer in that category today. Scherzer's 12.0 K/9 is nearly identical to Sale's (11.9), but the opponent strikeout rates are drastic, as are the team wOBA's. Scherezer will face a Miami team that has a projected lineup with a 30% (!!!) K rate against right-handed pitching over the last 12 months and a .294 wOBA. Sale's opponent, the Indians, actually hit lefties pretty well (.340 wOBA - top 5 on the slate) and a drastically lower strikeout rate against southpaws of just 18% over the last 12 months. That puts Scherzer as my number one in GPP's and you can call the cash game decision a toss up, but I'm going with Scherzer.
Carlos Martinez - SP, STL @ MIL (DK - $8,800, FD - $9,100)
For those keen on saving money and/or not paying up for the five digit elite pitchers, C-Mart should be your guy - especially in tournament formats. His recent game log may make you a little squeamish, as it should, but I still think the matchup is a very opportune one and the risks associated with rostering Martinez are worth the upside in tournaments.
In 2017, Martinez owns a pretty strong 1.2 WHIP, a 1.0 HR/9 and a nearly-elite 9.5 K/9 mark. Over his last three starts, the 43% hard hit rate is a little concerning, but the fact that he's allowed just a 15% fly ball rate in that same stretch is excellent. Tonight, he gets a date with a team that has been sputtering and really only has one left-handed bat that is a threat currently (Travis Shaw). They also own a 28% K rate over the last 12 months against right-handed pitching. The strikeout upside is very present in this one.
Also Consider: Jon Lester - SP, ARI vs CHC (DK - $9,500, FD - $9,700)
DFS Infielders to Consider
Mike Zunino - C, SEA at TEX (DK - $4,200, FD - $2,600)
Mr. Zunino has returned to his homer bashing ways and he's exploded past value in three of his past five games. Zunino gets a major park upgrade tonight, faces a pitcher in Nick Martinez who has allowed over a .200 ISO this season, and he's quite a bargain at this price. For the past 12 months, he owns a .321 wOBA split and a .250 ISO split against southpaws. On top of that, he's been punishing baseballs over the past 15 days, posting a 56% hard hit rate - third best among catchers for that time frame.
Chris Davis - 1B, KCR @ BAL (DK - $4,200, FD - $3,600)
First base is a really deep position, but I somehow still missed Davis' presence during his extended trip to the DL. It seems like he's always way more affordable than many of his first base counterparts, while possessing the same/nearly the same upside at a fraction of the ownership percentage. Tonight, he's in a spot I love against Ian Kennedy and his 37% hard hit rate and 41% fly ball rate (over last three starts) in a positive hitting environment. Over the past two weeks, Davis has been murderous to baseballs, hitting them hard at a 60% rate. That, and his .284 ISO split against right-handers from the past 12 months make Crush pretty damn attractive tonight.
Chase Utley - 2B, LAD @ ATL (DK - $4,100, FD - $2,700)
Paying up for elite pitching means sarcificing some dollars elsewhere. I normally look for the middle infield positions to do so. Why? Well, the position is scarce for power, and the power hitting second basemen (the few) are normally incredibly expensive and incredibly high owned. Thus, I look for value in this core - hitting high in the order, good team context, ability to score runs, steal bases, etc - and Utley checks a few of those boxes for me today. For one, he gets a major park upgrade - especially as a left-handed hitter playing in Atlanta. Additionally, he takes on an inexperienced pitcher in Lucas Sims and Utley has been very strong against right-handed pitching over the last year, posting a .336 wOBA and a .189 ISO (.150 points higher than his marks against LHP). And last, but not least, Utley is following the trend of the aforementioned guys in my article, as he too has posted greater than a 50% hard hit rate over the last two weeks.
Josh Donaldson - 3B, TOR @ CWS (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,800)
The Donaldson we've seen this past week resembles the Bringer of Rain I'm much more used to - and one I grossly prefer to other third basemen when he's hot and/or heating up. Donaldson has homered in two of his last four and in this positive park environment against the lowly Mike Pelfrey, I like this chances again tonight. His hard hit data isn't all that impressive during this heating-up run he's on, but his line drive rate is over 30% and his fly ball rate is just shy of 40%. In other words, he's squaring the ball up pretty damn well and he's getting it in the air.
Trevor Story - SS, NYM @ COL (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,900)
So here's the story - the kid is back, and lingering wrist injuries be damned, he's here to stay. Yes, everyone's favorite southpaw smashing dinger maker is back to his regularly scheduled bashing. Story has left the yard a few times in the past week, and his StatCast data for that stretch is downright scary - 79% hard hit rate, 33% line drive rate, and an average batted ball distance of 237 feet. To say that I like him tonight, in Coors, against a struggling Steven Matz, would be an understatement. Dating back to last season, Story has explosive splits against southpaws, posting a .396 wOBA and a crazy high .326 ISO.
DFS Outfielders to Consider
Nelson Cruz - OF, SEA @ TEX (DK - $4,000, FD - $3,600)
This price point is quite the bargain on both platforms. Cruz has struggled in July, so the price drop was warranted, but we're currently in that sweet spot where Cruz has started producing again (phew) and his price hasn't been adjusted yet. Tonight, he gets a major park upgrade and faces a pitcher in Nick Martinez that is normally excellent to pick on. The Boom Stick has a 45% hard hit rate these past two weeks and dating back to last year, his ISO split of .257 is very strong.
Starling Marte - OF, CIN @ PIT (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,300)
Normally I like to reserve these three outfield spots for those I'm confident in their ability to hit a home run or two that night. Now, I'm not saying Marte isn't capable, but that isn't what I'm rostering him for. Tonight, he fits the mold for me as he has great team context (leadoff hitter facing an exploitable pitcher), has strong splits with sizable differentials and I like his chances to wreak havoc on the base-paths with a stolen base or two this evening.
Brandon Moss - OF, KCR @ BAL (DK - $3,600, FD - $2,500)
You asked for more value plays, and I'm delivering. (Okay, you didn't ask, but you need it tonight. Thank me later.) My algorithms absolutely love Brandon Moss tonight, and I think it has a lot do with the fact that Dylan Bundy really struggles with left-handed hitters, as he's allowed over a .500 slugging percentage to that group this season. Over the last year, Moss possesses just an okay wOBA split but his .200 ISO split is pretty attractive. On top of the solid power splits and favorable matchup, Moss gets a park upgrade and owns a 42% hard hit rate in the past 15 days.
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