RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Batting average is just one of many statistics fantasy owners must consider, but contact rate can also be telling of all-around success at the plate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.
Each week we will look at a few players who are rising and falling in terms of contact and compare their previous week's contact rate with their season-long performance.
Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 20 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Contact Rate Risers
Alex Bregman (3B, HOU) - 98% contact rate last seven days (+12%)
Bregman had his 14-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday, followed by another 0-for-4 game. He then picked right back up where he left off on Tuesday by knocking two base hits, including a triple and an RBI. Remarkably, he went 11 straight games without a strikeout and has an 8:3 BB:K in the month of August. This is reminiscent of last year's late-season surge when he hit safely in 13 of 14 games through almost the exact same time frame. Perhaps Bregman is just a second-half player. That would be unfortunate for his keeper value, but at least you can rest assured that he can keep this up through September and make up for some of his disappointing returns in the first half.
Tim Beckham (1B/2B/3B/SS, BAL) - 85% contact rate last seven days (+16%)
If Bregman is hot, then Beckham is a campfire on the sun's surface. In two weeks with Baltimore, Beckham is hitting .500 with four homers, 10 RBI and 16 runs scored. Even throughout this breakout season which he began with Tampa Bay, Beckham hasn't been a model of plate discipline. He strikes out 30% of the time, which hasn't slowed down during his hot streak. That's telling of how well he's hitting the ball every other time at the plate, but beware of a .397 BABIP that will eventually come down to Earth.
Brian Goodwin (OF, WAS) - 88% contact rate last seven days (+11%)
With Bryce Harper hitting the DL, the division-leading Nats now look to Brian Goodwin to carry the offensive load down the stretch. OK, that may be a bit far-fetched, but with the staggering number of injured players from Washington's opening day lineup unavailable, Goodwin is playing a much more prominent role than the team ever imagined. He's been holding his own in the power categories all year (13 HR, 30 RBI in 251 at-bats), but his average has mostly hovered around .240, which kept his ownership rates low. With a .409 average this past week, he's becoming less of a liability in that category as well. Goodwin isn't the sexiest name on the waiver wire compared to some other prospects, but he may outproduce the majority of them to close the season.
Keon Broxton (OF, MIL) - 74% contact rate last seven days (+11%)
Normally this section is reserved for players on the rise, hence the subtitle. Broxton has raised his contact rate 11 points this week, but it still remains several points below the league average. He's hitting .176 in the past week with six K in 17 at-bats. He previously allayed concerns of a low batting average by posting superior walk rates last year in Milwaukee and throughout the minors. That has gone away this year, as his 8.7% BB% isn't helping out his OBP enough to compensate for his .220 average. Until he corrects his ridiculous 37.7% K%, Broxton isn't trustworthy enough to start on a regular basis.
Contact Rate Fallers
Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) - 56% contact rate last seven days (-21%)
There is a good reason for Cervelli's recent struggles. He is day-to-day with a wrist issue that has apparently hampered him for a while. He isn't on the disabled list at the moment, but he is out of the lineup. There should be concern since it's the same hand which Cervelli had surgery on last year for a broken hamate bone. Cervelli isn't worth owning outside of really deep two-catcher leagues anyway. He is batting .249 with five homers and 31 RBI this season.
Lucas Duda (1B, TB) - 58% contact rate last seven days (-17%)
Moving to Tampa hasn't done anything to boost Duda's fantasy value. He's jacked three homers in 16 games, but has only four RBI to show for it. Despite a 55-point jump in BABIP, his batting average has actually gone down in the last two weeks while his strikeout rate is up to 33%. You know what you're getting from Duda at this point - homers, mostly of the solo variety, and not much else.
Jonathan Schoop (2B, BAL) - 62% contact rate last seven days (-11%)
Schoop has been residing in the risers category for a while, so it might be shocking to see him as a faller. Then again, regression is inevitable. Thanks to a huge second half performance, Schoop is batting a career-high .303 in spite of a 73% contact rate on the year. While Schoop already has established new high marks in the power categories and is on pace for .300-30-100, he will slow down at some point in September. His average hasn't suffered at all lately, but his low contact rate and high BABIP suggest it will eventually.
Jose Pirela (2B/OF, SD) - 65% contact rate last seven days (-11%)
One of the more surprising players to emerge as a .300 hitter and regular starter, Pirela has finally transferred his minor league success into Major League production. Pirela doesn't have overwhelming power or speed, so he'll need to keep up the average in order to maintain fantasy relevance. He does have 20 doubles to accompany eight homers, so points league owners may find him more appealing. Pirela failed hard in three previous auditions for a big-league roster spot, but he finished with an average over .300 in four of the last stops at Triple-A. He may be sacrificing some contact for power, but his all-fields approach has given him good results so far.
