Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 25 - Buy or Sell?


Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 25! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy-relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Contact Rate Risers

Data current as of 9/18/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.

 

Mitch Garver (C, MIL)

94% contact rate last seven days (+21%)

It has been a really impressive follow-up act from Garver this season, hitting .276 with 30 home runs in 338 PA. However, his second-half has been a little less impressive at least from a batting average point of view, with a .254 batting average. He has brought that back around in September, as he is hitting .310 with four home runs in 38 PA. His batting average increase this year is fascinating given his BABIP has dropped, and his K% rate has risen 2.2%. His contact rate has dropped this season, but his SwStr% has stayed identical to each of the last two years thanks to a 2.3% drop in O-Swing%, and a 1.5% drop in Z-Swing%.

The concern that those numbers should not have led to the batting average increase we saw this season is increased when you look at his power numbers. His exit velocity is incredibly impressive, but a 28.8% HR/FB rate is likely not sustainable into next season. Between the slight batting average concerns I have and the power regression, my anticipated advice for next season would be to use what is hopefully an end of season hot streak to sell Garver this offseason in your dynasty leagues. Also, use these numbers as caution when his ADP is soaring next spring.

 

Ramon Laureano (OF, OAK)

85% contact rate last seven days (+17%)

Laureano has built on his short stint in the majors in 2018 with a solid 2019. His batting average held, his K% has dropped and his ISO has taken that next step, with 22 home runs this season. However, his contact rate numbers do give me a reason for pause, as his SwStr% has jumped 1.4% thanks to an increase of 5.7% in Swing% coupled with just a 0.3% jump in Contact%. These numbers just concern me that the K% drop we saw this year is not real and would be enough for me to enter next year with some caution surrounding Laureano.

 

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)

2019 may have confirmed our fears that the incredible Joey Votto is heading in the same direction as Miguel Cabrera, down and out of fantasy relevance. Votto has seen a second straight dip in batting average down to .268 and he has managed just 15 home runs. More concerningly is the K% tipping over into a new career-high of 19.9%, and rising for the second straight year. His batted ball numbers are a major concern with his HR/FB sitting down at just 10% for a second straight year, having been up near 20% throughout his career. His BB% has also dropped in conjunction with a rise in his O-Swing% combined with a big drop in his O-Contact%. Do not let this hot streak at the end of the season fool you, Votto is all but done as a viable first base fantasy option entering 2020.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Data current as of 9/11/2019 and taken from RotoBaller's Premium Tool.

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS)

45% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Speaking of bad years, Bradley has really struggled in 2019. His batting average has dipped to .221 and his K% is back up at those early-career numbers of 27%. The situation would be even worse if it wasn't for a hot month in June when he hit .315 with five home runs and struck out just 20.8% of the time. In three of the other five months, he has hit below .200 and struck out 30% or more of the time. His contact profile belies the concern as his SwStr% is up at a career-high 14.6% as his Z-Contact% has dropped 3.1%. There is a chance that Bradley will bounce back somewhat in 2020, but the excitement over him in fantasy should be done until he can prove otherwise.

 

Dee Gordon (2B, SEA)

60% contact rate last seven days (-20%)

Yikes, this is not what you want if you drafted Gordon. Injuries have limited him to just 399 PA entering play on Wednesday. He has stolen 22 bases which have to be considered acceptable, but his batting average did not really jump as we hoped. Also, his K% has snuck up. His SwStr% is up thanks to a dip in Z-Contact% from 94 down to 89, but those are numbers you can live with. The problem is that injuries appear to be limiting his contribution and that should lead to pause. His value next year will likely inflate because of his ability to swipe bases, but this little cold streak to end the season should be a warning to remind you that if he doesn't steal you 40 bases his value is extremely limited for your fantasy team.

 

Daniel Vogelbach (1B, SEA)

55% contact rate last seven days (-14%)

A really frustrating year for people who were invested in Vogelbach is coming to an end. On one hand, he has hit 30 home runs and increased his batting average from last season. On the other hand, his batting average is just .214 and he has a K% of 26. The power element of his game is legit, and he should be a regular 30 home run hitter if he maintains a FB% over 40. His contact profile is interesting as he has struggled to make contact with pitches in the zone but succeeded outside the zone. That is not a bad combination as those pitches in the zone are strikes whether he swings or not, and the fact he is getting to more pitches outside the zone is notable. However, the quality of contact is usually worse on pitches outside the zone, and in order to see real improvement in batting average, you would like to see him improve in the zone again next year. This is likely what Vogelbach is for fantasy, empty power. Good for DFS, not so much for season-long formats.

 

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool

Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. Here is a small sample:

This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and launched on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!

More Fantasy Baseball Advice and Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury report and is expected to play. David Johnson (ankle)... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch - Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Oliver

Week 7 is here RotoBallers, which means we're smack dab in the middle of the regular fantasy season! In case you are new to this column, each week we'll highlight a few first-year players who are worth keeping your eye on. Not all of the players listed below are must-starts, but all of them are... Read More


Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 7

Every year and in every sport, a few teams march effortlessly towards the ultimate prize as if it's been preordained. When seemingly invincible teams like these are beaten, it's not always by the quality of their opponent but instead by their own psychological mindset. They look past a lesser opponent and fall victim to the... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Josh Gordon has officially been ruled out for Week 7. Todd Gurley was not on the final injury... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Pass Rush vs QB Matchups to Watch - Week 7

It's Week 7 and the injuries just keep piling up. Heading into this week, six different teams will be starting quarterbacks that were not their opening-day starters, and that doesn't take into account teams like the Indianapolis Colts or Kansas City Chiefs, who just lost quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) for at least three weeks. To... Read More


Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 7

In Week 6, we once again saw some great football, starting with the New England Patriots continuing their undefeated start to the season and ending with one of the most controversial games of the week as the Green Bay Packers overcame the Detroit Lions. The London games continued with Jameis Winston struggling once again, this... Read More


Is Stefon Diggs Really Back?

Weeks 1-5: 4.6 targets, 3.2 receptions, 50.6 yards per game, one touchdown. Week 6: 11 targets, eight receptions, 167 yards, three touchdowns. All of these numbers show a marked improvement on the season averages of Stefon Diggs in Minnesota. But, do they tell the whole story? Do they really signify that Diggs should be considered... Read More


Inside the Tent - Week 7 NFL Injury Insight

At RotoBaller, we can't stress enough the importance of keeping up with injuries and playing your best lineup week after week. Players are going to get injured, that's an unavoidable fact. What's avoidable though is making the wrong roster decisions based on the injuries surrounding your fantasy squad. If you want to dominate your leagues... Read More


Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference in winning a championship. Each week, I... Read More