RADIO
While it's easy enough to target stats like SB or HR if you need them from the waiver wire, counting stats are a little more challenging to predict. Runs scored in the past are a poor indicator of future performance in the category, especially if a player's real life lineup slot has changed since April. The best way to find them is to locate a leadoff hitter nobody has ever heard of, such as Yolmer Sanchez of the White Sox.
Speaking of players on terrible real life teams, Jeff Samardzija has improved in every statistical category except those that matter in fantasy. His ownership rate is a lot higher than it seems like it should be, so let's see if his production over the rest of the season will match his peripherals or his mediocre numbers to date.
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Yolmer Sanchez (2B/3B, CWS) 16% Owned
This guy has slashed .268/.320/.419 with 11 HR and eight stolen bases over 482 PAs, contributing a little in every fantasy category for the cost of a roster spot. More importantly, the White Sox have been using him as their leadoff hitter of late, allowing him to compile more runs scored than you would think given the rest of his profile. They might not have the most capable lineup, but a leadoff guy is a leadoff guy.
Chances are you're interested in more than a one-category contributor, so let's peek at the rest of his profile. Sanchez has 1,169 PAs at the MLB level, so his career numbers are meaningful. Sanchez's FB% is lower than it was last season (39.8% vs. 34.3%), but higher than his career rate (30.6%). He converts fly balls into home runs at a slightly below average rate (9.5% HR/FB), but performs significantly better at home where he has hit eight of his 11 dingers. If you need homers and runs scored, stream Sanchez when the White Sox are home and bench him during road trips.
If you need batting average with your runs scored, Sanchez can help with a league average K% (20.7%) and above average BABIP (.322). His SwStr% is higher than it was last year (11.1% vs. 10.6%), but the change is exclusively on pitches outside of the strike zone (70.3% O-Contact% vs. 65.6% this year). His Z-Contact% is unchanged (84.5% vs. 85.3%), so his K% should hold steady. His 35.1% chase rate is a little higher than you might want, but his 6.4% BB% is still reasonable.
Sanchez's elevated BABIP is the result of his ground balls, which have a BABIP of .277 against a career mark of .224. Sanchez's grounders are generally hit very slowly (79.1 mph on average). He can also run a little, so it's realistic to think that he can keep beating out slow rollers. He rarely pops out (5.2% IFFB%) and hits an average number of line drives (21.9% LD%), allowing him to consistently beat the league average BABIP if he continues to perform well on the ground.
Stolen bases are harder to count on, as Sanchez only has a 50% success rate this season. You have to go back to 2014 to see a reasonable success rate (77% in 22 attempts across two levels), and many of his rates before then were also atrocious. The upside is that the White Sox have nothing to lose this season, so they may let him run anyway.
Sanchez is an ideal fit in leagues with daily transactions, as his 73 games at second base and 36 at third base give him eligibility at both slots in nearly all formats. He also has four appearances at SS and a game in the outfield, giving him added versatility in less stringent formats. Owners looking for runs scored could do far worse than adding Sanchez for the stretch run.
Verdict: Champ
Jeff Samardzija (SP, SF) 83% Owned
Samardzija is 9-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 3.49 xFIP this season. His K% (24.5% vs. 20.1%) and BB% (3.6% vs. 6.5%) are both better than they were last year, but the benefits are masked by an inflated BABIP (.308 vs. .296 career), HR/FB (14% vs. 11.5% career), and low LOB% (67.1% vs. 70.7% career). Some of this can be attributed to luck, but there are reasons to expect Samardzija to continue underperforming his peripherals.
Samardzija's BABIP is not attributable to either his pitching or Lady Luck. He's allowing softer contact this year compared to last, posting an average ground ball exit velocity of 82.8 mph to last year's 85.3 mph. The Giants play reasonable infield defense when Samardzija is on the mound, with shortstop Brandon Crawford (eight DRS) and Samardzija himself (five) standing out as strong performers. As a result, Samardzija has a .225 BABIP on ground balls this year. That's actually lower than league average!
His defensive support is not as strong for air balls, however. His average exit velocity in the air is slightly better than it was last year (91.8 mph vs. 92.2), and his rate of Brls/BBE is identical at 6.1%. Despite this, his .144 BABIP on fly balls is the second highest of his career while his .701 mark on line drives is also higher than average. The reason is a San Francisco outfield that has compiled -52 DRS as a unit. Hunter Pence (-6) and Denard Span (-28) are the worst offenders, and they're also the most consistent names deployed out there. Trade season is over, so it seems unlikely that Samardzija's fortunes improve until next season at the earliest.
Power is up throughout the game, a fact that explains Samardzija's career worst HR/FB. A look at his splits suggests that he may be a viable streamer, as only eight of his 28 homers allowed occurred in San Francisco. He has also struggled with runners on base, holding batters to a .237/.272/.407 triple slash line with a 26.6% K% when the bases are empty against a .285/.314/.520 line and 20.6% K% with runners on. These stats are usually just noise, but a K% decline that large suggests that Samardzija's stuff loses something out of the stretch.
This suggests that his stuff is more tenuous than his K% would suggest. He has decreased his reliance on the cutter (18.9% last year, 8.7% this) in order to throw a sinker, curve, slider, and split more often. The slider is the best pitch in his arsenal, offering a 14.7% SwStr% with a high Zone% (56.6%) and slightly plus chase rate (38%). He's throwing his split for a strike much more often (47.6% Zone% vs. 34.4% career) with impressive results (14.6% SwStr%, 40.6% chase). His cutter is also inducing whiffs in its more limited role (14.3% SwStr%), and his fastball is above average with an 8.8% SwStr% and 58.4% Zone%.
Samardzija's other offerings aren't quite as effective. His curve generally keeps the ball on the ground (64.6% GB%), but offers little strikeout upside (8.8% SwStr%, 30.5% chase). His sinker is inferior to his fastball in every way (6% SwStr%, 53.8% Zone%). Most importantly, he doesn't have a put away pitch that can just blow a hitter away. He can finesse Ks with his slider, but it might be tough to sustain an elevated K% when your best SwStr% is 14.7%.
In short, Samardzija's luck metrics are part terrible teammates, part environment, and part luck. His K% surge has some chance of being a mirage, making him a streamer at best when every start counts. His ownership rate is way too high considering the risk he delivers a total disaster in any given outing.
Verdict: Chump
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