Champ or Chump: Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp

It's officially the All-Star Break, a time when it's always fun to take a closer look at who was on the rosters. You have surefire studs like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. You have guys who came out of nowhere such as Blake Snell and Jesus Aguilar. Finally, you have elder statesmen like Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp. Wait, what?

It's true: Markakis and Kemp are All-Stars in 2018. Both of them have fantasy lines worthy of selection, and you're probably pretty proud of yourself if you invested in either in March or April. That said, can the magic carpet ride be expected to continue?

That's this column's purpose, so let's find out together!

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Nick Markakis (OF, ATL) - 88% Owned

Markakis is slashing .323/.389/.488 with 10 bombs this year, seemingly taking revenge on every fantasy owner who has used his name as the butt of a joke. Smart owners have long looked to Markakis for counting stats in deep leagues due to Atlanta's bizarre fascination with hitting him cleanup, but this is ridiculous.

The underlying metrics suggest that Markakis is still Nick Markakis. His batting average is buoyed by a microscopic K% (11%), a rate supported by minuscule chase (23% O-Swing%) and whiff (4.6% SwStr%) rates. However, none of that is new. For his career, Markakis seldom strikes out (13.2% K%) thanks to minuscule chase (24.7%) and whiff (4.9%) rates. His plate discipline is impressive (10% BB%, 9.5% career), but it doesn't differentiate his All-Star performance from his previous body of work.

Markakis's BABIP (.344) is higher than it usually is (.318 career), but nothing in his contact quality supports the change. His 90.6mph average exit velocity on ground balls is impressive, but it's not Markakis's highest mark in the Statcast Era (90.8mph in 2016). His .262 BABIP is close enough to his career .255 mark to attribute the difference to random fluctuation.

Markakis's average airborne exit velocity (92.9mph) is a Statcast Era best, as his previous marks were 91.5mph (2017), 91.8mph (2016), and 89.7mph (2015). However, it's still just a smidgen above average compared to the league as a whole. His rate of Brls/BBE is pathetic (3.3%, identical to last year's mark), so it's not like the ball is jumping off of his bat.

The only real difference this season is that his LD% jumped to 27% from a career mark of 21%. That's enough to fool Baseball Savant's xStats, which say that Markakis is underperforming slightly (.326 xBA, .489 xSLG). However, LD% spikes over half-seasons are almost never predictive of anything moving forward. When the line drives dry up, Markakis will go back to being a .280 hitter.

A 29.1% FB% is hardly conducive to power numbers, making even 20 homers a stretch. Markakis doesn't fit the mold of traditional cleanup guy even with an elevated LD%, so there is always some chance that the Braves move him to a less favorable batting order slot as well. If they don't, he'll continue to be a valuable counting stat contributor in deeper formats. If you play in a shallow format, try selling "All-Star" Nick Markakis while the terminology still resonates.

Verdict: Chump

Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) - 82% Owned

Kemp has turned back the clock, slashing .310/.352/.522 with 15 HR on the campaign. Fantasy owners have avoided Kemp for a few years now, but in truth he was always a reasonable hitter with atrocious defense signed to a ridiculous contract. Only one of those things matters in fantasy.

That doesn't mean that Kemp will continue to bat .300, because he won't. His .362 BABIP is considerably higher than his .339 career mark, and the underlying peripherals suggest that regression could hurt even more. Like Markakis, it starts with a LD% (25.9%) significantly higher than his career average (22.3%).

Unlike Markakis, Kemp needs to concern himself with the shift. His career Pull% on grounders is 63.8%, not quite enough to worry about infielders moving around. However, that number is up to 69.1% this season. It hasn't adversely impacted him yet (.423 in 55 PAs this season), but it theoretically makes it difficult to expect his .286 BABIP on the ground to continue (.251 career).

Honestly, his 85.1mph average exit velocity on ground balls and below average 26.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed make it difficult to trust his ground ball BABIP even without the shift. To be fair, Kemp is moving much better than he did in 2017 (24.9 ft./sec).

His fly balls are outproducing their career norms (.186 vs. .162), but his line drives are so far the other way (.678 vs. .744 career) that regression could help a little overall. His airborne contact metrics are strong, as his 95.1mph average airborne exit velocity and 11.8% rate of Brls/BBE are both Statcast Era bests for him.

Baseball Savant says that Kemp has deserved a .298 batting average thus far, a number that should be regressed downward to accommodate for his elevated LD%. However, it says that he has deserved a slugging percentage of .579, over 50 points higher than his actual mark! All of the line drives would also inflate that figure, but not by enough to conclude that Kemp's power is a mirage.

In fact, his power is on par with his career averages. Kemp's 37.3% FB% is slightly better than his 35.9% career mark, but it crushes last season's 28.2% mark that had so many declaring him unrosterable when the Dodgers acquired him. His 17.6% HR/FB is also on par with his 16.8% career rate, with room for growth considering his contact quality metrics and an improved Pull% on fly balls (22.4% vs. 16.5% career).

Kemp bounces around the heart of the Dodgers lineup, hitting third, fourth, and fifth with some regularity. Fantasy owners would like him to stick at third or fourth, but at least he's never buried. His defense (-2 Outs Above Average per Statcast) has also been much better than it was last season (-18, worst in MLB), so there is little worry about his glove losing him playing time. Thirty-three-year-olds are not known for turning into fantasy gold, but Kemp appears to have done just that.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks